On August 14, a US congressional delegation visited Taiwan soon after House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, which stirred strong criticism by China. The five-member group, led by Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, met President Tsai Ing-wen and attended a banquet hosted by the foreign minister, Joseph Wu, during the visit, according to Taiwan’s foreign ministry. Taiwan hailed the delegation’s visit as another sign of warm ties between Taipei and Washington, while Beijing condemned the visit in a statement by China’s embassy in Washington, saying the visit “once again proves that the US does not want to see stability across the Taiwan strait and has spared no effort to stir up confrontation between the two sides and interfere in China’s internal affairs”.

Understanding the Visit

This is the fourth crisis between China and the US on Taiwan. The congressional visit is indicative of a deepening rift between the two world powers, and of America’s incoherent policy on Taiwan.

1.    Surprise visit:

In contrast to Pelosi’s visit, the US congressional trip was not discussed officially.  Perhaps Washington sought to avoid another diplomatic crisis with Beijing who has escalated its retaliation for the visit.

2.    Provoking China:

The US continues to ignore China’s objections to these visits. White House spokesperson on national security said congress members have visited Taiwan for decades and they would continue to do so, maintaining that these visits do not contradict US ‘one China’ policy.

The spokesperson’s remarks coincided with China concluding its vast and unprecedented military exercise near Taiwan, and a white paper titled ‘The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era’, published by China’s Taiwan affairs office. The paper stated that the reunification is a national aspiration and a political commitment, though it does not endorse military action to realise this ambition; China, however, has been subjecting the island to a partial naval blockade by an overbearing presence of Chinese naval fleets in Taiwanese waters.

On August 11 Taiwan official rejected the ‘one China’ principle. Taiwan’s foreign minister said that people had every right to self-determination. The congressional visit followed a day after, echoing Taiwan’s message to Beijing: the US supports Taipei’s efforts to protecting its autonomy, and perhaps gaining independence.

3.    US protection of Taiwan:

The recent congressional visits highlight America’s incoherent strategy; while the US maintains a ‘one China’ policy it would support Taiwan in case of an armed confrontation with China. To this effect, President Tsai Ing-wen told visiting congress members that her country needed to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and that the Russian operation in Ukraine has revealed how “repressive regimes are a threat to the world order”, alluding to China. Similarly, Taiwan’s prime minister told reporters in a press conference “(we) didn’t expect that the evil neighbour next door would show off its power at our door and arbitrarily jeopardise the busiest waterways in the world with its military exercises”.

4.    Anti-China alliances:

Washington is using China’s reaction to US provocations to mobilise an alliance of against China in southeast Asia, which was effectively launched with AUKUS and Quad pacts.

5.    Downplaying China’s reaction:

Washington realises that China could not compel Taiwan and its US ally to back down on their policies despite carrying an unprecedented military exercise in the Strait. This highlights China’s unwillingness to resort to military solution – at least for the time being.

China’s Response

Beijing has maintained its policy on Taiwan, though with less intensity in recent weeks.

1.    Warning Taiwan:

Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for Ministry of National Defence remarked both the US and Taiwan’s efforts to control China are bound to fail. Colonel Qian warned Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that “to solicit the US for independence is bound to bring self-destruction”.

2.    Retaliatory military exercise:

China has continued its drills near Taiwan borders, though it has lessened in intensity. Yet the second US congressional visit has driven China to conduct new manoeuvres. This time Chinese fighter jets entered Taiwan’s air defence zone 50 km away from the Island.

Colonel Qian told reporters on August 16 that the exercises in “sea and air space around Taiwan” provided a “resolute response and stern deterrence to US-Taiwan collusion”, signalling China’s willingness to resort to military intervention, if Taiwan decides to claim independence, however far-fetched.

3.    Disbanding US alliances in Asia:

To counter US alliance-building in Asia, China has been bridging extending its own alliances in the region. Chines and North Korean foreign ministers met on August 10 in Shandong region, where they asserted their strategic relations and partnership in areas of defence. The South Korean delegate during his visit reassured his Chinese counterpart about his countries acquisition of US anti-ballistic missile system, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD).

On August 15, China’s ambassador to India Sun Weidong received a reiteration from New Delhi on its ‘One China’ policy. India follows the policy and recognises the government in Beijing only but has not mentioned it in bilateral documents or in public statements for a long time.

Yet China’s effort might not win India away from its alliance with the US considering India’s ongoing border dispute with China. New Delhi is also wary of China’s expansion in the Indian Ocean, for which reason India gifted a Dornier maritime reconnaissance aircraft to Sri Lanka on August 15, a day before a high-tech Chinese missile and satellite tracking ship docks at the island nation’s strategic Hambantota port.

4.    Avoiding sanctions:

China has not announced any additional sanctions on Taiwan following Pelosi’s visit, which for the most part had been political more than economic. China had imposed trade bans on fish and salt products, and on natural sand, which is used in the manufacturing of semi-conductors. But these sanctions chiefly affect DPP’s stronghold regions where Taiwan’s president hails from, and which are strong proponents of separation from China. Whereas China’s carefully designed sanctions did not hit hard other areas where the opposition party, Kuomintang, enjoys large support. Finally, China is cautious not to damage the semi-conductor industry, for its tech sector, and the world economy, rely heavily on Taiwan, more so as the global supply chain is impacted by the war in Ukraine.

It may be concluded that China does not aim for a direct war with the US over Taiwan. Unless Taiwan announces independence, Beijing would stick to military pressure, economic sanctions, and naval blockade. It remains unclear, however, whether the US intends on escalating with China over Taiwan in the near future.