In a sudden and unexpected development which sounds more  like a black swan, the chief of the Russian Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the morning of June 24 announced that he seized control of  the headquarters of the Russian Army Command in the city of Rostov and other military sites, including the airport. He demanded a meeting with the Russian Defense Minister and Chief of Staff in the city, and threatened to march on Moscow if they refuse. Earlier in a recorded video message, Prigozhin had confirmed his intention to overthrow the top generals he accused of targeting his forces. The development came as part of a series of escalations over the past few months, during which Prigozhin released several recorded videos attacking the leadership of the Russian ministry of defense. The videos indicated an imminent confrontation between the Russian military establishment and the non-institutional armed group, which the Kremlin has long employed to serve various objectives in the nearby and distant neighborhood, especially Ukraine and Syria.

Profound Repercussions

Several significant points  emerge amidst the vast amount of information, news reports and journalistic articles, some of which may be exaggerated or downplayed, regardless of the motives behind the move, be it a personal ambition of Prigozhin or an armed rebellion threatening a civil war. These points can be outlined as follows: 

1- The Rebellion Compromised the Russian State’s Authority and Prestige, as well as the social, political and military cohesion that Russia seeks to reinforce:

It is not possible to underestimate the seriousness of what has occurred, even though no scenes of armed clashes between the two sides surfaced. Prigozhin and his forces entered the city facing no resistance, as they were considered Russian forces. He even met with the Deputy Minister of Defense and the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, affirming that what was happening "does not hinder the special military operation in Ukraine." He appeared wearing the distinctive white badge of the Russian forces.

However, this development still poses serious threats, given the following considerations: 

● Wagner Group's strength: The mercenary group consists of at least 25,000 fighters, and maintains a high level of combat efficiency, which it clearly demonstrated in battles such as the one in Bakhmut. The group is equipped with tanks, helicopters, and high-tech equipment.

● The importance of Rostov: The city is home to the headquarters of the Southern Military District, which is responsible for Russian operations in the Donbas region. That is why Wagner's seizing control of Rostov threatens to partially paralyze the ongoing military operations in Ukraine. This explains President Putin’s swift reaction and decisive speech, which put an end to the controversy about the actions of the Wagner Group, its future, its founder, and its chief. Putin labeled the group’s actions as a "call for armed mutiny" and a "treason”  and “a stab in the back of Russia and its people." He vowed that the rebels “will inevitably be punished and will answer before the law and our people”

● The psychological impact on Russia’s society, which has remained detached from the events in Ukraine and has been carrying on its activities in a normal manner, is evident. This is reflected in the call for civilians in Rostov to stay in their homes, the closure of borders between Rostov and Donetsk, and the attempts of some social media platforms to discuss this in relation to the capital, Moscow. The mayor of the city denied the developments, but there are other measures being taken, such as the installation of inspection checkpoints, which raise concerns among the citizens.

● It is purely a Russian operation, as no external party has shown support for Prigozhin or claimed responsibility for what is happening. While Kyiv may consider it an "opportunity," it has not declared any involvement in the events. Similarly, Moscow has not accused any foreign party, and there is a notable absence of popular or political support for Prigozhin. The situation has been officially classified within counter-terrorism operations, as the National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federal Security Service announced the opening of criminal investigations against Prigozhin on charges of "inciting rebellion against authority."

Potential Opportunities

 Despite the negative messages and threats posed by the developments, they are not without a "half-full" aspect and opportunities that the Kremlin can capitalize on. Some of the prominent opportunities include:

1- An opportunity to liquidate or restructure the Wagner Group or limit its activities to foreign operations:

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a plan to bring all fighters on the frontlines under control through direct contracts with them by the first of July, as confirmed by President Putin during his meeting with military correspondents on June 13th.

As a result, volunteer fighters will receive all the benefits and guarantees enjoyed by regular forces, including support for them and their families if they are injured or killed during military operations in Ukraine or elsewhere. The Wagner Group posed a dilemma in this regard, as a significant number of its fighters are foreigners whose integration into the Russian national forces is hard, unlike the "Ahmed" Chechen forces who are Russian nationals because Chechnya is part of the Russian Federation.

Furthermore, there are numerous investigations and accusations against Wagner for numerous violations committed during its operations outside of Russia. Integrating Wagner into the Russian armed forces may officially impose such responsibility on Russia, while the primary objective of its formation was to exempt regular forces from these investigations. 

In addition to that, Prigozhin’s  personality and his ambitious nature add to the complexity of the situation. After Wagner's successful operations in Bakhmut, Pirgozhin sought an official military position and absolute command of his group in the field without coordinating with the military command. This became evident through his verbal attacks in recent months and his refusal to obey the Russian military command. He also refused to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense, which was signed instead by the Chechen "Ahmed" Battalion. This contract allows the Ministry of Defense to have full control of all volunteer units and prohibits individuals from outside the military establishment from commanding combat groups. It also restricts the issuing of military orders and instructions regarding armament solely to the Ministry of Defense, which Prigozhin strongly opposes.

Therefore, the development provided an opportunity for Russia to get rid of Wagner, especially since they were no longer actively involved in combat in Ukraine and had already completed their mission. In May last year, they handed over their positions in the city of Bakhmut to the Chechen Ahmed force. This was confirmed when the Russian security forces raided Wagner's headquarters in St. Petersburg, surrounded the associated buildings near the Blagoveshchensky Bridge and shut down the group’s website and froze its assets.

2- Bolstering support for President Putin and the military command:

During the operations led by Wagner, Prigozhin’s successes and his repeated accusations against the leadership of the Ministry of Defense for failing to supply him with weapons and ammunition garnered significant sympathy for him and his group. Because of its popularity,  it became difficult for  Russia to remove him. However, his actions stripped him of this sympathy and reaffirmed the centrality of military decision-making. It also reinforces support for President Putin and preemptively quells any potential debate about his candidacy in the upcoming presidential elections in March.

Two Scenarios

The important question is, what comes next? Can this rebellion be contained, and at what cost? Providing a definitive answer is difficult as there are two potential scenarios for the developments. 

1- The escalation scenario:

This scenario is favored by Western analysts, is reinforced by Prigozhin’s  refusal to surrender as well as his insistence on the need for a new president for Russia. This scenario suggests the likelihood of a civil war that represents a deep wound that drains and weakens Russia's capabilities, hindering its progress in Ukraine. In this case, Chechen forces and the National Guard of Russia which is directly subordinated to the supreme commander-in-chief, who is President Putin, may intervene alongside the regular forces to confront Wagner Group.

2- Scenario of containment:

This scenario is the most preferred by the Russian regime. Accordingly, the Wagner rebellion would be contained by agreements and understandings to spare Russia a lot of troubles and prevent the country from sliding into a civil war similar to the Chechen war in the 1990s.

It remains difficult to determine which one of the two scenarios is more likely, especially because of Russian measures supporting both. There are military actions being taken, and attempts being made to reach agreements. The outcome hinges on the success of the ongoing negotiations with Prigozhin.