Over the past few weeks, the Israeli government led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett plunged into a two-fold crisis. First, Bennett’s 6-party coalition government lost parliamentary majority when key member, Idit Silman, said that she was quitting his coalition. Second, burgeoning tensions between the Arab-Jewish communities within Israel may spill into an all-out war with Palestinian resistance groups led by Hamas in Gaza.
The security crisis across the country may serve as a devastating blow to Bennett’s already fragile political coalition. As the government faces paralysis and impending collapse, escalating clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian protestors in Jerusalem could spiral out of control – although Bennett has given the Israeli forces the green light to use whatever force necessary to supress the erupting violence in Jerusalem and north of West Bank.
Meanwhile, the United Arab List (UAL) leader Abbas Mansour said that the party was suspending its participation in the coalition government, blaming days of violence at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque compound for its decision. Clashes have been continuing for weeks as Palestinians protest hundreds of Jewish Israeli settlers forcing their way into the Mosque compound. Party leader Mansour has threatened to submit a collective resignation if the government did not back from these clashes. Never in Israeli history has the fate of a government been in the hands of an Arab, non-Jewish party. If it happens, the parliament would be dissolved, and new elections to be held. Mansour faces mounting pressure from party members to resign from coalition government immediately. It is unlikely he could hold for long.
The outcomes of the ongoing strife between the Palestinians and Israelis in Jerusalem is hard to predict, which if continued may well lead to the collapse of the government. What can be analysed for the time being, however, is the current crisis that could blow the coalition from within.
A new political crisis
What’s in store for Bennett-Lapid government, having lost majority after Silman’s resignation on April 7?
For now, Silman’s action has no immediate consequence: The Knesset is in recess until early May, and Bennett could salvage the coalition by then, while former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could call for a new election. Each side face immense challenges in forming majority coalition, spiralling the country into its fifth election in just under three years, which would not resolve the political stalemate that has been ongoing for years.
Mission impossible...saving the coalition
Silman’s announcement left Bennett’s coalition with 60 seats, the same as the opposition. Although Silman’s defection does not mean the fall of the coalition, it becomes functionally impossible to pass any bill in the Knesset, which requires 61 seat majority. The government is effectively paralysed.
Bennett’s urgent priority is to prevent any further blows to the coalition ahead of next month when the Knesset reconvenes. But if he had failed to persuade his former deputy Amichai Chikli to remain within this fold of his own Yamina party, and has lost Silamin’s support, could Bennett see any success in steering other party members from deserting?
Moreover, the Bennett-Lapid government performance across key issues has been at best underwhelming in the eyes of the Israeli public over the past 9 months, which are:
1. Deteriorating security across Israel in the past month:
Three stabbing incidents were carried by Palestinians, some of which are from the “48 Arabs”, killing nearly 14 people and injuring dozens more.
2. Heightening tensions between Arabs and Jewish communities in Israel:
Those tensions are chiefly driven by the Israeli eviction of Arab families in Sheikh Jarrah, and the attacks carried by “48 Arabs”. The intensifying situation is expected to erupt as Al-Aqsa Mosque becomes a flashpoint and Hamas retaliates.
3. Inadequate response to economic crisis driven by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sky high prices and spiking cost of living are affecting the most vulnerable communities in Israel, with no sign of relief on the horizon.
Considering the above, the Bennett-Lapid coalition seem to be losing popularity and may be hanging by a fine thread. These security and economic factors exacerbate the tensions rife between Arab and Jewish communities in Israel, and could lead to direct clashes, as was the case in Sheikh Jarrah last year. Then the UAL would resign from the coalition, officially ending Bennett’s government.
Crisis within the opposition
The opposition led by Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, finds itself grappling with a similar situation. Currently, Netanyahu’s own coalition holds 52 seats split between his party, the Likud – National Liberal Movement (Likud), Shas, the United Torah Judaism (Yahadut HaTora), and the Religious Zionist parties. Also in the opposition three key players: the Joint List (a political alliance of four of the Arab-majority political parties in Israel), which holds 6 seats; and the two former members of Bennett’s coalition, Silman and Chikli, each holding one seat. The opposition bloc thus holds 60 seats in total. Therefore, Netanyahu needs the support of both former Yamina party members, and at least one more coalition member to deflect, in order to spoil Bennett’s government without having to call for an early election. This scenario, however, seems unlikely, and Netanyahu is left with two alternatives as a result:
1. Either convince Benny Gantz, leader of Blue and White party (Hebrew: Kahol Lavan) and current defense minister, to abandon Bennett’s coalition and join the substitute government, which Gantz would lead, and Netanyahu would become the foreign minister.
2. Or play the waiting game, in hope for more fracture to surface within Bennett’s ranks, leading to early elections.
The first alternative does not hold much promise for the tides to change in Netanyahu’s favour. Blue and White party holds eight seats in the Knesset. If Gantz agrees to Netanyahu’s stratagem, the new coalition would bump up the opposition’s share of seats to 60, just one seat shy to allow a new government to be formed. Gantz and Netanyahu then would have to bank on little more than just luck to lure one or two Members of the Knesset (MK) of either Bennett or the Joint List parties to form a majority coalition– a feat which seems far-fetched given the complicated web of interests entangling all Knesset parties.
For instance, the Joint List said on many occasions that it would never support neither Bennett nor Netanyahu. Also Join List head Ayman Odeh called upon Arab Israelis enlisted in the police forces to “throw their weapons” away and refuse to be part of the “injustice” and “crime” happening to their fellow Palestinians in the Occupied Territories. His remarks did not go without censure from other MKs, demanding Odeh’s removal from office immediately.
Similarly, the Religious Zionist Party have expressed unwillingness to taking part in a coalition with Gantz. Though holding strong ties to Netanyahu, Gantz’ links to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and his support for a two-state solution, have put him at odds with far-right and religious parties within the Knesset.
In short, Netanyahu’s option to form a majority coalition of his own seems quite diminished. And so he is practically left with the second alternative. If conditions are ripe, the dissolution of the current coalition government raises the spectre of a potential early elections, the fifth in less than 3 years.
The possibility of early elections
Losing majority in the Knesset does not mean the fall of the Bennett-Lapid government. Yet the breakdown of government is imminent when voting on draft bills becomes functionally impossible. While an agreement to maintain the status quo had been reached by the coalition parties to avoid division within the first year of its formation, it is expected that members begin proposing new bills that align with their own party agendas come June. What brought six ideologically contradictory factions together under one alliance may fall apart fairly quickly.
In this view, early elections seem highly probable in September. Would this course however snatch Israel out of its muddled politics going for nearly 4 years?
In reality, Israel’s prolonged stagnation is multi-vector and unprecedented. One aspect emblematic of this political impasse is ‘Netanyahu’s paradox’: he held office as prime minister for over 12 years, outwitting accusations of corruption and abuse of power. An increasing proportion of the Israeli public is growing weary of his damaging influence on Israel’s democracy, rule of law, and the state’s image within the international community.
The scene was quite different back in 2018. Israeli voters let Netanyahu’s Likud win a majority in Knesset for four consecutive terms. Israel’s politics was marked by Likud’s dominance over rival parties and by an absence of any political adversary who could truly challenge to Netanyahu.
Israeli voters seem to struggle with Netanyahu’s paradox. While a recent poll reveals a clear disapproval of Netanyahu’s track record as a principled politician, many Israelis still cast their votes in his favour. Latest polls taken on 8 April 2022 illuminates further: Netanyahu’s Likud would claim 35 seats; Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid, the current minister for foreign affairs, would receive 19 seats; Shas, nine seats; Kahol Lavan, Religious Zionist Party, and Yahadut HaTora would win eight seats each; Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman), and the United List, six seats each; five seats to Bennett’s Yamina; and four seats to each of Meretz and United Arab List. Whereas the New Hope party is expected to fall short of minimum seats required to secure a seat at Knesset.
If the above transpired as accurate, Likud would secure 60 seats, and would still need one more MK to be able to form a new government. The early mentioned circumstances pose real challenge for this scenario happening. Yet these polls indicate that Likud may increase their share of the Knesset by five seats, and its Right-wing ally by another eight, in which case the paradox posed by Netanyahu would remain a reality. For the opposition, the slimmest hope remains that Netanyahu gets incriminated by the court of law, or the attorney general reaches a deal whereby Netanyahu would retreat from the political scene for at least 5 years.
The Belgian case
The Netanyahu legal battel could drag for another three years, however. Political stability would remain far from reach. Tel Aviv thus may enter a Belgian state of affairs: for years, Brussels waded through 652 days of caretaker and minority governments, since the fall of the last administration in December 2018. Belgian voters were unable to settle on a party that could form a stable government. Israel however couldn’t afford going through a similar case as it deals with domestic security setback, and a perceived threat of Iran’s nuclear programme. Would Israeli voters be more decisive ahead of casting their ballots soon, lest Netanyahu and his allies turn this recurring instability into a fait accompli?
