On December 5, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol accepted the resignation of Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun amid a wave of political instability in the country. The turmoil had been sparked by Yoon's declaration of a state of emergency and martial law just two days earlier. The president's unexpected measure prompted widespread protests and led the parliament to initiate impeachment proceedings against him.
A Stalemate
Several factors drove the South Korean president to take this sudden and expected action:
1. Political stalemate:
President Yoon sought to justify his recent actions by attributing them to the political deadlock gripping the National Assembly. Following the parliamentary elections held in April 2024, the Democratic Party (opposition) now controls 156 of the 300 seats in the legislative body. Yoon described the National Assembly as a "den of criminals" attempting to paralyze the country's administration, as tensions escalated between his party and the opposition over the budget bill for the coming year.
In what the ruling party characterized as a retaliatory measure, the opposition also attempted to impeach three senior prosecutors, including the head of the Central Prosecutors' Office. This move came in response to ongoing criminal investigations into Lee Jae-myung, the opposition leader. Despite these challenges, Lee's prospects for becoming a candidate in the next presidential election in 2027 are improving, according to recent opinion polls.
2. Decline in Yoon's popularity:
President Yoon now faces a politically precarious situation as his popularity has steadily declined since taking office in 2022 after winning a narrow majority. His position further deteriorated following his party's defeat in the April 2024 parliamentary elections, which resulted in the opposition party gaining control of the legislative branch, effectively rendering Yoon a "lame duck" president. Notably, this decline in popularity extends beyond the opposition parties, permeating even the ranks of his own People Power Party. The hostility towards Yoon's administration stems from numerous accusations, including allegations of bribery, conflicts of interest, and the involvement of his family, wife, and government officials in questionable practices. Exacerbating the situation, Yoon's refusal to conduct independent investigations into these allegations has only served to intensify the opposition's resentment.
3. Allegations of growing North Korean influence:
The South Korean president affirmed that imposing a state of emergency was primarily aimed at confronting anti-state threats posed by the opposition. According to the president, the opposition allegedly incited rebellion and threatened liberal values through its ties with North Korea. Yoon described martial law as a necessary measure to eliminate these "anti-state forces supporting the North," protect people's freedoms and safety, ensure the country's sustainability, and maintain stability for future generations. In contrast to his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who sought to engage with both Koreas, Yoon adopts a tough stance towards North Korea due to its nuclear ambitions.
Exceptional Moves
The country's accelerating political instability has been reflected in a series of presidential decisions, resulting in numerous actions and counter-actions:
1. Imposition of martial law:
This presidential decree implemented nationwide security and military measures, encompassing a ban on all political and parliamentary activities. It authorized arrests without warrants for individuals spreading false news or manipulating public opinion, while also prohibiting strikes and any activities or gatherings that could incite chaos. In response to this decree, Chief of Staff General Park Ahn-soo issued a declaration imposing immediate and comprehensive restrictions. These restrictions targeted political parties, public demonstrations, and labor organizations, additionally placing all media under military control. Simultaneously, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Myung-soo affirmed the military's commitment to prioritizing public safety and taking all necessary precautions against potential provocations from North Korea.
2. Opposition, condemnation and allies' withdrawal:
The public outrage sparked by these measures reverberated across various factions and currents. Lee Jae-myung, the opposition Democratic Party leader, condemned the declaration of a state of emergency as unconstitutional, cautioning against its impact on democracy due to military intervention in politics. Simultaneously, popular protests demanding Yoon's resignation erupted, with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions initiating an open-ended strike, vowing to "continue until President Yoon resigns." The crisis deepened as senior aides, including the chief of staff and national security adviser, collectively offered their resignations. In response to the escalating situation, the ruling party convened an emergency meeting on December 4, 2024, to deliberate on the possibility of Yoon leaving the party and the resignation of all government members.
3. Parliamentary rejection and Yoon's retreat:
Late on the night of December 3, a special session convened in the parliament, surrounded by military forces and protesters. All 190 members of the National Assembly present unanimously voted to reject the presidential decree. Yoon, faced with this overwhelming opposition, announced his retreat merely six hours after declaring martial law. He promptly canceled the military martial law and withdrew the forces besieging the parliament. Despite this retreat, Yoon continued to criticize the parliament's actions. He accused them of engaging in unethical practices that paralyzed state functions, particularly their attempts to impeach senior government officials and prosecutors. In his view, the parliament was abusing its legislative role through these actions.
4. Parliamentary move to impeach Yoon:
Opposition forces initiated a process to vote in the National Assembly for President Yoon's impeachment, requiring a two-thirds majority. With the National Assembly comprising 300 members and opposition parties holding 192 seats, the bill could potentially pass if more than eight members of Yoon's own People Power Party support it. The outcome remains uncertain, particularly as some ruling party members have declared their rejection of the opposition's measures.
On December 5, 2024, Cho Kyung-ho, head of the People Power Party's parliamentary bloc, announced that all members of the bloc would vote against the opposition's proposed impeachment bill. Should a vote be cast in favor of impeachment, Yoon's presidential duties would be immediately suspended pending a final ruling by the Constitutional Court. In the event of his dismissal, new elections must be held within 60 days, during which time the Prime Minister would assume presidential duties for the transitional period.
Potential Consequences
Several potential consequences may arise from these political actions, despite Yoon's retreat. The implications can be summarized as follows:
1. US concern:
A state of cautious anticipation has surrounded these developments among South Korea's allies and even its adversaries. The White House expressed satisfaction with the corrective step and President Yoon's respect for the parliamentary vote shortly after the reversal of the state of emergency.
The US State Department had initially expressed deep concern about the developments at the onset of the crisis, implicitly indicating its readiness to address any threats from the northern neighbor. They noted the presence of 28,500 US troops in South Korea to protect the country. Some estimates suggest that the US position has been indecisive, neither endorsing nor opposing Yoon, due to his staunch anti-North Korea stance, which makes him a reliable ally for Washington.
Nevertheless, these internal disturbances could prove costly for Washington by potentially undermining US efforts to reconcile Japan and South Korea, a cornerstone of strengthening US alliances in Asia. The aim of these alliances is to counter the threats posed by China and North Korea, both of which stand to benefit from internal tensions in South Korea.
2. Potential constitutional crisis:
Yoon's actions are viewed by some as a desperate attempt to retain power by obstructing institutional work and preventing his dismissal and prosecution amid escalating political scandals. These moves have not only challenged democracy and South Korea's reputation but also pose an unnecessary threat to the economy. Yoon's recent steps mark the first declaration of martial law in South Korea in four decades, a significant event considering the country has witnessed more than 12 such declarations since the establishment of the republic in 1948. The last instance occurred in 1980 when a group of military officers led by Chun Doo-hwan compelled then-President Choi Kyu-hah to declare martial law, suppressing calls from the opposition, workers, and students to restore the course of democratic transition.
The rapid changes unfolding could push the country towards a potential constitutional crisis if efforts to impeach the president continue while Yoon clings to his position until the end of his term. Such a scenario would likely increase political uncertainty and raise the possibility of early elections. Analysts estimate that President Yoon has metaphorically shot himself in the foot, potentially costing him his position. The situation is particularly precarious, considering democracy's narrow escape from the threat of military rule resurfacing in the country.
3. Economic losses:
Political tensions have led to significant economic losses in South Korea. The South Korean won has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years against the dollar, while exchange-traded funds linked to South Korean stocks have reduced their losses relatively after retreating from their positions. On Wednesday, December 4, 2024, South Korea's benchmark stock index fell in early trading, though the currency appreciated after the Ministry of Finance promised unlimited liquidity following an emergency meeting to take measures to protect market stability.
Democracy in South Korea now stands at a crossroads. Although the country temporarily overcame the recent crisis following the president's backtracking, and the military was unable to exploit the opportunity through a coup d'état that would have undermined the democratic transition, significant risks remain. As opposition voices calling for Yoon's resignation increase, the legitimacy and constitutionality of his rule may be questioned while he clings to his position. Consequently, the future of the political scene in Seoul remains relatively uncertain until Yoon's intentions become clear. The coming days will reveal whether he will succumb to political demands amid his declining popularity and legitimacy or plunge the country into a new round of chaos and protests.
