The US has been involved in the continuous fight in the Gaza Strip since its onset, and perhaps the images of US President, Joe Biden, attending the Israeli War Cabinet are fine evidence of Washington's involvement in this conflict. The deployment of ten air defense systems to the Middle East, most notably the Patriot and THAAD, which coincided with the arrival of the Gerald Ford and Dwight Eisenhower aircraft carriers, confirms that the US' vision of the current conflict is centered around placing all of its political, military, and intelligence weight behind Tel Aviv. This becomes evident with Washington’s adamant position to oppose a ceasefire under the pretext of Israel’s "absolute right" to self-defense, and notwithstanding the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's recent comments about constraining this right by demanding that Israel follow international humanitarian law and the laws of war. The US’s multiple ‘vetoing’ against the adoption of any resolution that criticizes Israel or calls for a ceasefire in the UN Security Council, has also demonstrated the extent to which American interests have been aligned with Tel Aviv in this war.
As the Gaza war enters its fourth week, and with American troops pouring into the region, Washington's equations have begun taking shape, and its interests and worries have started becoming clear, whether in the short, medium, or long term. If the American hostages held by Palestinian groups are the main priority of Biden’s administration, other strategic interests are also starting to gain visibility in some American circles around the huge opportunities presented by this crisis- that is despite the challenges raised by the White House. This has essentially raised doubts about the US’s true aims behind delivering all of this weaponry and ammunition to the region, and whether the ongoing US political and military operations serve to target Israel’s triumph on a sector with a population of less than 2.3 million people, or whether Washington’s ambitions and objectives go beyond the current war on Gaza.
A closer look at the US’s political and military discourse indicates that the White House possesses ambitious goals that are, however, beset by several concerns. The US’s calculations for the ongoing conflict are based on ten key equations, which can be addressed as follows:
1. Concerns about a recurrence of the 1979 hostage situation:
The release of Americans taken captive by Hamas since October 7, 2023, appears to be President Biden's top priority. There is no exact count of American hostages, yet the sensitivity of this case may drive US military intervention on the ground to free these detainees. While the White House opposes any on-ground participation with Israel in its war, it excludes the release of American prisoners from this opposition.
The Democratic Party is concerned about the subject of hostages to any harm, which could spark a crisis similar to the American hostage crisis in Tehran in 1979, which lasted 444 days and resulted in the loss of the then-Democratic president, Jimmy Carter, for a second term to the Republican candidate at the time, Ronald Reagan. Perhaps the sensitivity of this case has led Washington to persuade Tel Aviv to postpone its on-ground strike on the Gaza Strip so that the American hostages are not killed in process.
2. The presence of almost 700,000 Americans in the crossfire:
There are 600,000 Americans in Israel and another 85,000 in Lebanon. If the situation worsens, the US will be forced to evacuate them, which is a complicated and risky process. Washington has in turn devised a strategy to evacuate a large number of people across the water and via ships that monitor aircraft carriers in the region.
The US is also attempting to remove some 600 Americans from the Gaza Strip who are dual citizens, or who work in UN agencies there. As it stands, their fate is dependent on the opening of the Rafah border crossing in the opposite way, which is also tied to the ease with which humanitarian and relief aid may reach the Strip. On November 5, 2023, the White House reported that over 300 Americans had already left the Gaza Strip since the opening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt in recent days.
3. The threat to US military bases in the region:
More than 40,000 American soldiers are currently stationed across the Middle East. Popular outrage over America's military and political bias towards Israel may compromise and lead to the targeting of these soldiers and military locations. With this in mind, approximately 2,500 American soldiers in Iraq and 900 soldiers in Syria could be subject to what the American military bases at Ain al-Asad and Harir in Iraq, and al-Tanf in Syria, have been exposed to.
4. A fear of broader violence and “flames” spreading within US borders:
This concern stems from an assumption of a ‘mutual attack’ on American soil by Arabs and Muslims on the one hand, and Israeli Jews on the other. The brutal murder of a Palestinian Muslim youngster by an American on October 16, 2023 in the state of Illinois is an example of what the situation could devolve into within the US. Protests in New York, as well as the withholding of financing to Harvard University by an Israeli billionaire, are also other illustrations of the implications and repercussions that the Gaza Strip war could have on the country.
It is impossible to overlook the contrast in the views of American elite surrounding the boundaries of American support for Israel, further complicating matters for the US administration, which considers recovering all hostages in a short period of time and achieving Israel’s goals through the elimination of Hamas movement to be the best case scenario, even if difficult. On November 3, 2023, US Senator Chris Murphy stated that, "It does not appear that the Israelis will achieve their goal of eliminating the threat posed by the Hamas movement."
5. Considerations for the new global polarization:
The US is concerned that its support for Israel will lure rival international powers, such as China and Russia deeper into the Middle East, undermining American influence and supremacy. Washington, for one, feels that Moscow and Beijing are benefiting from the current Middle East war, seeing how Palestinian activists in the West Bank had raised images of Russian President Vladimir Putin several times. To add, Arab nations and their populations have shown support for Russia and China's use of their veto in the UN Security Council against the American draft resolution.
6. The US return to the Middle East:
Since 2010, the US has undertaken an "East Shift" strategy, which essentially aims to part from the Middle East and focus on the Indo-Pacific region to face Chinese competition. However, Israel's conflict in Gaza has "practically" drawn Washington back into the Middle East, particularly in light of its concern about the expansion of China and Russia in the Middle East, giving the US an opportunity to send a message to "friends and enemies alike", through the size and quality of its vast military capabilities.
The message Washington has been delivering to its adversaries, particularly to the military forces tied to Iran, is that it is ready for any given scenario, and that it will protect its soldiers and bases on multiple fronts. For its allies, the US’s message asserts that it has not abandoned the region and remains a trusted partner, particularly with China's success in facilitating peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran last March. While the Israeli attack on Gaza has definitely provided a chance for the US to reorient itself in the Middle East, Washington also fears that the end of this war would be a strategic setback for the US if it becomes further involved in it.
7. Not wanting to prolong the current war:
Even though the US is currently opposed to a ceasefire in order allow Israel to achieve its goals in Gaza, its calculations indicate that it prefers a rapid Israeli war in the Strip. The US’s prompt reaction in sending weaponry, ammunition, and the “Gerald Ford” aircraft carrier intends to aid Israel in achieving its goals in the fastest way possible, and at the same time, avoid affecting the Ukrainian front negatively. A prolonged battle in Gaza and the involvement of new parties would practically mean a fight on two primary fronts for Washington, potentially leading to Kiev losing the war in the face of Moscow, and Hamas' strategic victory over Israel.
8. Avoid losing the “rules-based order”:
Since its inception in May 1948, Israel has been part of the Western world order known as the "rules-based order", which was established following World War II, and which has been rejected by a number of countries all over the world, including China and Russia. On account of this, if Israel faces existential threats or perhaps defeat, the image of Israel's first ally, the United States, will weaken in the eyes of its competitors globally, particularly China and Russia. US estimates are thus, predicated on the idea that an Israeli defeat signifies a setback for this "rules-based order." With this viewpoint in mind, there are claims, which Washington has not refuted, regarding the existence of a covert US military base in Israel known as "Site 512", whose main objective is to keep an eye on any potential missile launched from Iran, and to protect Israel given the significance it holds for this order.
9. An Energy price index:
The US is concerned that the conflict and upheaval in the Middle East will have an impact on global energy supplies, particularly gas and oil from the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean, which may result in a re-dependence on Russian oil and gas, and the increase in energy costs. Washington is particularly concerned about forecasts indicating the possibility of a price increase for a barrel of oil to exceed $150, if the conflict is escalated or prolonged.
10. The course of the 2024 US elections:
The White House strongly considers allegations that point to President Biden as being biased and unfair in his opinion of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, seeing how they may affect his appeal to Arab, Muslim, liberal, and leftist voters, potentially giving former President Donald Trump an opportunity to defeat Biden in the November 2024 elections. Recent polls have suggested Biden’s loss of 11 points among Democratic voters, and approximately 7% among independents as a result of his decisions around the continuous war in Gaza.
