Turkey-Israel relations have recently been caught in a new stage of political and media confrontations between the two countries over the recent developments at al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, triggered by Israel’s installation of metal detectors at electronic gates to control access to the sanctuary. The resulting tensions prompted speculations that a new crisis is in the making that is reminiscent of the six-year diplomatic rift triggered by the 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish-flagged aid vessel Mavi Marmara, off the blockaded Gaza Strip, leaving ten Turks dead. That is despite the fact that the two countries renormalized their ties returning ambassadors to their posts and building strong economic relations.

Revealing Indications

Following up of the media and the political sphere reveals an escalating strain on relations between Turkey and Israel that can be summarized as follows:

1- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in opening remarks delivered at the Conference on Higher Education in the Islamic World, held on July 26 in Ankara, criticized Israeli measures in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. He further accused Tel Aviv of not wanting peace or stability and of desiring to perpetuate tensions in the Territories through its persistent attempts to change the Islamic identity of Jerusalem.

2- Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee at the Turkish Parliament, Taha Ozhan, described the Israeli accusations that Turkey was exploiting the Palestinian issue to serve its own political interests as meaningless and ridiculous. He said the accusations reflected the level of Israeli diplomacy. Ozhan’s statement came in response to an official statement issued by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs in which spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon lashed out at Turkey and President Erdogan.

3- Israel closed its diplomatic missions in Turkey following an attack on two Jewish synagogues. The precautionary decision was driven by Israeli assessments that the developments in the Occupied Palestinian Territories are likely to escalate even though the al-Aqsa Mosque crisis is now over, at least formally.

4- The Turkish government demanded that Israel should put an end to its security measures in the Occupied Palestinian Territories because they contravene the principles of human rights and freedom of worship. It also demanded Israel halt judaization of Jerusalem and settlement plans. The demands were viewed in some circles as warning messages that can go beyond diplomatic norms.

Determinants

Turkey’s reaction to Israeli recent escalation at Al-Aqsa Mosque was governed by a group of determinants that can be summarized as follows:

1- Turkey links the developments in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and the repercussions of the Al-Aqsa Mosque crisis to the lifting of Israeli blockade on Gaza Strip. This is evidenced in Turkey’s sending signs that the situation in Gaza Strip will possibly explode and other organizations will intervene making it difficult for the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to control the situation in Gaza.

2- Turkey’s efforts towards stability in the Palestinian Territories stems from its desire to ensure a direct presence in Gaza Strip, and in the Strip’s economy and the services sector in particular.

3- Implicitly urging the Israeli government to separate between its relationship with the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and its relationship with Hamas, so that the crisis with the PNA would not be a prelude to escalation against Hamas and Gaza Strip.

Israel’s Containment Approach

The Israeli government’s reaction to Turkey’s position regarding developments in the Occupied Palestinian Territories was based on the following principles:

1- Turkey’s position is considered as an intervention in the internal affairs of Israel that is unacceptable for diplomatic norms governing relations between independent states. Israel voiced this position in the statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

2- Israeli ruling right-wing parties stepped in the crisis, with the Jewish Home Party’s leader Naftali Bennett saying that it is time for President Erdogan to choose between either joining the West, or joining terror organizations.

3- The Israeli government demanded Turkey make Turkish-Israeli higher common interests as a top priority, and urged it not to get involved in new political squabbles. The demands indicate Israel’s keen interest in avoiding new clashes with Turkey, especially in light of their current economic and military understandings. 

Possible Trajectories

Given the current tensions between Turkey and Israel, the outlook for their current disagreement can take either one of the following three potential courses.

1- In the first scenario, escalation between the two countries would continue, especially as there is no end in sight for the current crisis in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, that was only formally resolved without even eliminating its fundamental causes. This would encourage the Turks to further escalate in a bid to make political gains inside Turkey as well as in the Arab region and Islamic countries. For its part, the Israeli government would seek to play a zero-sum game. Accordingly, as it handles the crisis. Israel would escalate with the Turks to preempt their future bids to take similar positions and deprive President Erdogan from reaping any political gains.

2- In a second scenario, both Turkey and Israel would try to reach compromises based on their interest in protecting their higher common interests that serve as drivers for continuing normal relations, as well as setting aside their disagreement and tensions over the Palestinian issue.

Such a scenario would be driven by efforts by certain state institutions in both countries towards neutralizing disagreements. Specifically, Turkish and Israeli security agencies and the defense ministries, as well as agencies involved in investments and economic activity, believe that both countries’ shared interests make it inevitable for them to push towards promoting relations and avoiding further wrangling, amid the common challenges and risks they need to address. 

3- The third scenario is a speculation that both countries would keep the crisis within the current boundaries, while also avoiding involvement in further political and economic quibbling and wrangling. Otherwise they would return to the same high level of comprehensive tensions over the Mavi Marmara issue that strained their relations in the past. After the two countries managed to avoid further escalation over that issue, they restored normal relations and returned their ambassadors to their positions. The normalization benefited both countries, in the economic sphere in particular, which remains a top priority for both the Turks and Israelis.

Media Escalation 

It can possibly be said that the primary goal of Ankara’s recent media escalation against Tel Aviv is to exploit recent tensions between the Israelis and the Palestinians to influence public opinion in Turkey, on the hand, and in Arab and Muslim countries, on the other. As Turkey aims to appear as if it embraced the Palestinian issue.

Moreover, the current tensions between Turkey and Israel over this issue are likely to remain within the limits of their current war of words. Both sides would ensure that this standoff would not negatively impact their strong economic relations, which will culminate later this year in their signing of an agreement on natural gas.

Turkish and Israeli security establishments and defense ministries will ensure that their security and military cooperation will continue as usual and their arms deals will be sealed. These establishments will always work towards preventing political developments from negatively impacting the levels of their cooperation. 

Moreover, Israel will primarily push towards normalization of relations with Turkey, especially because Turkey is given the credit of restoring relations between Israel and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allowing Israel to open a permanent mission at the 29-member military alliance’s HQ.