Iran executed on January 14, 2022, a British-Iranian national who once served as its deputy defence minister, defying calls from London and Washington for his release. Alireza Akbari was arrested in 2019 and accused of spying for Britain. He served as a defence minister between 2000 and 2005 under former President Mohammad Khatami, and he fought during the Iraq-Iran war. He also served in other high-ranking positions in the navy and the ministry of defence’s research centre, and was appointed as the general secretariat of the national security council.
Indications
The execution of a high-ranking officer is a rare case in Iran and thus reveals many indications of crucial developments within the Iranian regime, outlined as follows:
1. Ongoing breaches of senior officers:
While Akbari’s execution is not the first instance of its kind, the Iranian political elite appears to have been infiltrated as per the regime’s viewpoint. There is an increasing number of espionage accusations that led to the arrest and execution of senior officials in recent years, including a former intelligence official responsible for handling Israel, the finance manager of nuclear negotiations, who was handed a 10-year prison sentence for spying for Britain and Canada; and a nuclear scientist, Shahram Amiri, executed for “treason and giving vital information about the country to the enemy.”
The infiltration of senior Iranian officials may be corroborated by repeated sabotage incidents targeting Iranian programmes, officials, and secret sites. Akbari, for instance, was reported to have handed sensitive information about Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a prominent nuclear physicist and scientist whom western intelligence agencies assassinated on November 27, 2020.
2. Power struggle within the Iranian regime:
A voice recording leaked two days prior to Akbari’s execution revealed Iranian intelligence’s attempt to extract confessions concerning Ali Shamkhani, who has been accused of trading sensitive information for “a shirt and a perfume” between 2018 and 2019.
If these leaks were to be proven true, Akbari’s arrest and execution would have linked an attempt within the establishment to oust Shamkhani, who has been in office for two terms. Media outlets backed by the Revolutionary Guards have publicly hinted at plans to dismiss Shamkhani soon and of a list being prepared of potential candidates to replace him.
3. A warning shot to the elite:
Akbari’s execution has served as a warning to Iran’s both conservatives and reformists political elite. The message is clear: any deviation from the regime’s set line would be met with an iron fist. The regime is trying to prevent division, especially at a time when popular protests and civil unrests sweep the country, causing tensions with the West. The regime, therefore, has aimed to prevent officials from defecting or collaborating with foreign powers.
The past few months saw criticism from within of the regime’s brutal response to protests. Former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani have voiced their support to the protestors. Rouhani said that he had presented a list of proposed reforms to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in the hope of resolving some of the grievances experienced by his compatriots.
In addition, the regime has been facing mounting resistance from family members of religious and political leaders, including vitriolic attacks by Faezeh Hashemi Bahramani, daughter of Iran’s former president, and Farida Murad Khani, Khamenei’s niece.
Possible Repercussions
In the wake of Akbari’s execution, Tehran faces multiple scenarios with profound implications. These are:
1. Continued isolation:
Tehran would have to face mounting anger from London and Washington, who imposed sanctions on Tehran. London has imposed sanctions on Iran’s attorney general and has withdrawn its ambassador indefinitely.
Moreover, reports have revealed that Britain is on the verge of withdrawing from the nuclear negotiations. If this were to happen, it would complicate the situation for Iran, for the negotiations have been completely put on hold since September 2022. Furthermore, earlier this year, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on January 17 that Iran has lost a valuable opportunity window to return to the negotiations table, adding that “the opportunity was there on the table, but Iran has refused it.” Such statements indicate that a nuclear deal may be far from happening anytime soon.
2. IRGC being designated a terrorist group:
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said on January 17, three days after Akbari’s execution, that the Commission would support listing the IRGC as a terrorist group, imposing additional sanctions in line with London’s stance announced earlier.
Iran, in response, warned Europeans that such measures would impact western ships currently sailing the Arabian Gulf, threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC-backed media said the move by the EU to list IRGC on the terrorist list would be tantamount to a “declaration of war.”
The EU’s move, however, may be more symbolic than anything. The IRGC is already under British sanctions and is designated as a terrorist group by Washington. Although, the move could impact banking and financial trade between the EU and Iran. The IRGC controls a large portion of the economy, and further sanctions would derail last year’s 22% increase in trade growth (estimated at Euro 4.715 billion) between both sides.
3. Spreading fear:
The regime has used execution as a form of deterrence against protestors. So far, more than 22 protestors have been sentenced to death in what has been described as sham trials.
Akbari’s sentence is a jarring reminder of the daily risk Iranian protestors face. The regime is relentlessly executing members of the opposition and those who might dare to challenge the system, devising espionage conspiracy to tighten its grip on security and national resources.
In summary, the execution of Akbari has revealed weaknesses in Iran’s regime, at least in two fundamental ways. First, the security apparatus evidently has been infiltrated. Second, a power struggle among the regime’s various factions has come to light, shaking the regime’s perceived image of stability and control. In addition, Akbari’s execution would further worsen Iran’s relations with the West, considering the prospects of a nuclear deal have become slim. Iran’s continuous escalation in the region and the supplying of Russia with drones for use in Ukraine have, perhaps, put the nail in the proverbial coffin of a nuclear deal – for the foreseeable future, at least.
