On September 9, US naval forces central command announced that the fifth fleet is about to launch 'Task Force 59' in the Arabian Gulf, whose commander is going to be maritime robotics expert Michael Brasseur, with the aim of enhancing deterrence in the region via integrating unmanned systems and AI into traditional operations. This force, first of its kind, will use drones and other unmanned technologies to achieve a number of American goals in the Gulf region. The nature and kind of technology used in this force shows that deterrence is its creators' prime concern. This raises several questions about its significance and about motives behind establishing it.
Underlying Motives
US motives for establishing the force can be summed up as follows:
1. Putting US deterrence into effect:
The force was established as a result of a growing need to deter Iran, a need that has been made urgent by recent developments, such as Iran's hijacking the bitumen and asphalt-transporting tanker Asphalt Princess in the Gulf of Oman last August, as well as attacking an Israel-related oil tanker on July 29 with a drone (with the consequence that a British former soldier and a Romanian citizen got killed). The fifth fleet was deployed more than once as a result of Iranian craft harassment of US warships in the Arabian Gulf.
2. Enhancing naval operations:
Navy spokesperson Lt. Tim Hawkins said that the Task Force 59 is “dedicated to rapidly integrate unmanned systems and artificial intelligence with maritime operations in the Fifth Fleet region”[1], explaining that these unmanned systems "can be used under, on and above the water”[2]. These include drones and other remote-controlled technologies. Undoubtedly, unmanned technologies (whether already deployed or still being developed) will revolutionize modern warfare. Depending on futuristic technology will bring about significant changes in the areas of military strategies, surveillance tactics and remote sensing systems. This will, in turn, have an effect on the way international decision makers in the field of politics and media make their plans. It will also influence the nature of robotic attacks on soldiers or hostile robotic systems in battlefields.
3. Keeping the Gulf region under the US radar:
The USA is also establishing this force in order to keep a close eye on activities in the coastal areas of the Gulf region, so that it can act quickly once the need for quick action arises. This is particularly important as it has turned out that Iran's naval forces resort to camouflaging their military identity to cover their operations. Early this year, officials from Iran's Navy claimed that Tehran has various military and logistic systems, which keep the Gulf region under close Iranian surveillance, and hence control, day and night. Therefore, the US realized that it is important to enhance its surveillance in the region, especially as reports indicate that Iran tends to use civilians in coastal areas of the Gulf as human shields in case of military conflict.
4. Confronting Iranian activities in the region:
Given Iran's geographical location, missile capabilities and willingness to escalate, it is not unlikely that Iran may make great achievements in the area of drone warfare. This constitutes a major challenge for the US, as it threatens its interests in the region.
5. Testing anti-drone weapons:
As the drone danger is increasing, many countries are keen on owning anti-drone weapons. This particularly applies to the US. As American navy is conducting advanced research to produce these weapons, Task Force 59 can be seen as an initial attempt to test these arms. In this respect, it is known that US Navy is going to test a high-energy laser weapon, as well as the ODIN program, later this year.
6. Responding to Israeli fears:
On September 11, in the annual conference of Reichmann's University of the International Institute for Counter-terrorism, Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz warned that Iran is training militia in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria to use advanced drones in the Kashan military base. He said: "Iran has created ‘proxy terrorism,’ under which it formed organized terror armies that help it achieve its economic, diplomatic and military goals.”[3] He added: “One of the significant tools that Iran has developed to assist its proxies is an array of unmanned aerial vehicles that can travel thousands of kilometers”[4]. According to some analysts, the US drone fleet in the Arabian Gulf is meant to address Israeli fears of Iranian 'airborne terrorism'.
Important Implications
US's efforts to own a drone fleet in the Arabian Gulf have important implications which can be summed up as follows:
1. The USA is capitalizing upon regional partnerships:
Iran believes the US drone force to be a potential nucleus of a joint Gulf-Israeli force. Iran is justified in such a belief, given the fact that on January 15, the Pentagon changed the Unified Command Plan by transferring Israel from US European Command (EUCOM) to US Central Command (CENTCOM), by way of dividing labour and facilitating bilateral and regional cooperation on security issues. Iran criticized this step, describing it as part of a broader ' American conspiracy' to transfer military responsibility in the region to other parties, especially as US Navy, marines and coast guard have been carrying out joint operations in the north of the Arabian Gulf since March 2020.
2. The US is keen on stressing its military presence in the region:
With the 9/11 anniversary and US withdrawal from Afghanistan, debate started again concerning whether US's military involvement in the Middle East should continue, especially as its withdrawal from the region may have serious consequences such as a the threats of terrorist attacks or and the military targeting of oil tankers in the Arabian Gulf. Questions were even raised about major powers' competition in the Middle East, and some wondered whether Moscow and Beijing are capable of filling US's void in case it withdraws its military forces from the region. Most probably, the launch of Task Force 59 partly refutes such scenarios.
3. The US is seeking to enhance human-machine cooperation by giving it broader geographical dimensions:
US is obviously aiming at making the Gulf region, Iran's closest neighbour, an arena for putting into effect human-machine cooperation, via the rapid integration of advanced autonomous systems into maritime security operations in the fifth fleet area of operation (i.e. Arabian Gulf, Hormuz Strait, Gulf of Oman, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, Suez Canal and parts of the Indian Ocean). The Middle East is actually an ideal environment for testing new military technologies that would help strategic innovation face several challenges successfully. One reason for this is the fact that the Arabian Gulf is geographically semi-enclosed; another is that the high temperatures in the region suit the drones' operating conditions. Besides, the region has crowded choke points, such as Hormuz Strait. Finally, the infrastructure for energy supply is excellent.
4. Task Force 59 will have super capabilities:
Though the nature of Task Force 59's activities (and most platforms) will remain secret, it is known that Loyal Wingman drones can provide support for manned aircraft in disputed airspace. Stealth Loyal Wingman can join manned aircraft in surface-to-air operations or even carry out such operations from beginning to end by themselves. They can also be used in cyber warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
5. Iran is expected to react:
It is likely that Iran will see Task Force 59 operations as a serious threat, which means that it will do its best to undermine the force or at least to forbid it to achieve its ends. However, Iran may find out that this is not possible, given the fact that the force and all its activities will be remote-controlled. We must not forget that there were no strong responses from the US's part to Iranian attacks on American unmanned aircraft (e.g. targeting BAMS-D in June 2019, RQ-170 Sentinel in 2011, etc.).
6. Tehran can already be trying to hinder the new force:
In 2020, at least six large batches of speedboats and combat drones were added to Iran's Navy. This undoubtedly helps Iran keep a watchful eye on Task Force 59 operations, if not hinder them. Iran is claiming that it has radar systems which can detect low-observable aircraft. In addition, IRGC can escalate cyber warfare against the new force. As a matter of fact, conducting cyber-attacks on the force is the most likely scenario.
In the final analysis, given the fact that Task force 59 is deterrent (rather than offensive) in nature, the US is not likely to take serious military action in case this force is targeted, especially if targeting it is carried out via cyber-attacks which would disable its operating systems rather than destroy the force altogether. This is why it is important for the US to enhance the credibility of its deterrence messages, which primarily entails that engagement be governed by strict, well-defined rules. This, in turn, necessitates that possible consequences of such engagement, as well as ways of responding, be decided beforehand. The US must bear in mind that economic sanctions may no longer be an effective deterrent. Otherwise, US's manned and unmanned systems will not be safe. Nevertheless, we can safely say that Task Force 59 makes the US and its allies capable of fighting fierce naval battles with minimal risks.
[1] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/News-Article-View/Article/2787967/us-navy-bahrain-commit-to-advance-new-unmanned-systems-efforts/
