Applications for Lebanon’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for May, have already closed, with 1043 candidates registered to compete for 128 seats. This is the highest number of candidates in the history of Lebanon. The development represents a significant step towards completing the elections following a great deal of bickering about whether or not to hold them as planned. The elections scheduled for March 27 will now be held on May 15 as a result of disagreement about the electoral law which President Michel Aoun refused to approve, and which was challenged at the constitutional council. The contexts of the upcoming elections as well as their expected results need to be analyzed, especially because they are viewed as an opportunity for bringing about change in Lebanon’s political landscape.
Despite this advanced step towards completing the elections, they can be potentially put off for several reasons. Most importantly the issue of major constituencies was raised by the Free Patriotic Movement which said the electoral process should be secured and the turnout should be increased. Other issues include insufficiency of financial resources, which was raised by some ministers, as well as reluctance of some Sunni leaders to stand for election. All these issues are an integral part of the context of the elections.
1. Change of the public sentiment:
The upcoming elections are the first to be held since the 2019 popular protests which demanded radical reforms and the removal of all politicians from power. Additionally, in the wake of the August 2020 explosion which hit Beirut Port, protestors had the same demands and called for investigation into the big blast. The developments posed major challenges for all Lebanese political forces forced to find new ways to market themselves, especially after popularity received a major blow from the two developments.
That is why, the upcoming elections can reflect this change in public sentiment about political forces and their candidates. This is especially so, because many forces calling for change and a revolution have formed over the past month. This would explain why some parties seek to postpone the elections to allow the current parliament to continue in power so as to tighten their grip on the political scene and facilitate the election of a president agreed upon by the current political majority in the parliament.
Lebanon is now going through a worsening economic crisis and deteriorating living conditions. The tumbling of the Lebanese Lira against the dollar, rising inflation, unemployment and poverty are among pressures that are set to impact the elections in several ways. Firstly, economic hardships and lack of sufficient financial resources may well lead to putting off the elections for months or even indefinitely.
Secondly, due to the worsening living conditions, popular turnout can be expected to be very low. Popular demands were hollowed out as the major concern of the Lebanese people is now to secure their basic needs causing their political concerns and even demands for political change to be sidelined by the tough daily challenges.
Thirdly, the current hardship and potentially volatile situation can, at any time and because of more pressures, trigger a popular outburst that can blow up the elections.
Fourthly, this severe crisis has already forced a large number of Lebanese to leave the country and even caused a change in the political views of the Lebanese expatriates. The development is evidenced in an unprecedented turnout for voting overseas. Their voting for political parties not currently in power is likely.
3. Regional and international uncertainty
The upcoming election in Lebanon is a major regional and international concern as the results are likely to largely impact a number of regional issues, and in particular, Iran’s influence across the region after the Iraqi elections that brought about a change to the balance of power at the parliament that was not in favor of forces allied with Iran.
Arab states, especially in the Gulf region, are following the elections with deep concern to know how changes brought about by the outcome can help remove Iranian influence on Lebanon, and Iran’s threats to the interests of Gulf countries, or even lead to implementation of the December 2011 Jeddah Declaration, which was aimed to save Lebanon, and the Kuwaiti initiative launched in January 2022 to mend Lebanon’s relations with Gulf countries.
Moreover, western powers view the elections as the last resort or hope for change and political and economic reforms much needed to save Lebanon from its crisis. This prompted western leaders to threaten to impose sanctions on Lebanese politicians and officials, and even disable talks with the International Monetary Fund about a plan for economic reform if the elections are postponed.
Some 1043 candidates will scramble for 128 seats that, as per the electoral law, should be divided as follows: 34 seats for the Maronite, 27 seats for Sunnis, 27 seats for the Shia, 14 seats for the Greek Orthodox, 8 for the Druz, 5 for the Armenian Orthodox, 2 for the Alwaites and one seat each for the Evangilicals, the Armenian Catholics and other minorities. The candidates had to align themselves in the lists by April 4 to stand for election, which triggered a raging conflict in the constituencies that political forces tried to resolve months ago.
1. Hezbollah and the allies’ battle:
Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, announced that his party’s goal is not to win the election for itself but to secure victory for all its allies in different constituencies. That is why, the party has been seeking to resolve issues between its allies, especially the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement, and to form uniform candidate lists in all constituencies while also standing the election using different lists in certain constituencies to benefit from the advantage of electoral outcome based on “a common assessment of the electoral interests.”
Hezbollah appears to be confident about its popularity among the Shias, where it has “popular incubators” and a strategy to provide fuel and food for the community suffering from the economic crisis. Additionally, it continued to escalate with Israel thus reinforcing its narrative about the so-called resistance. The major challenge, however, is to secure victory for its ally, the Free Patriotic Movement whose popularity was severely damaged over the past period. Leader of the movement, Gebran Basil, who is under US sanction, was among the figures facing popular anger.
This challenge is compounded because the Lebanese Forces, a major rival of the Free Patriotic Movement which, alongside other Christian parties such as the Kataeb and the Marada, is mobilizing significant forces in Christian-majority areas against the 8th March Alliance to win Christian votes in the elections. Investigation into the Beirut Port explosion, and Hezbollah’s bid to remove judge Tarek Bitar, represent a major weakness that the Lebanese Forces is using in this electoral battle. On the other hand, the Free Patriotic Movement is using investigation into corruption at Lebanon’s central bank as leverage for its electoral bid.
Moreover, Hezbollah is taking advantage of the void in the Sunni leadership, and the fragmentation of candidates in the eyes of voters, to present Sunni candidates allied with it or back certain candidates in Sunni constituencies. Their victory would increase the party’s allies and bloc, to the loss of its rivals.
The Sunnis came under significant pressure after current Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and former premiers Saad Hariri, Fouad Siniora and Tammam Salam, announced that they are not standing for election. Additionally, Hariri announced that members of his Future Movement, the largest Sunni political force, will not take part in the elections or they will have to resign.
Overall, the situation created confusion on the Sunni political scene due to the leadership void, and bids by other forces to attract Sunni voters to their ranks. This might encourage a large number of Sunni voters to refrain from taking part in the elections, although there are candidates who resigned from the Future Movements, namely former Future Movement deputy chief Mustafa Alloush who is seeking to mobilize a powerful candidate list to form a powerful bloc in the parliament. Some voters might back candidates from popular movements, which means a different Sunni representation is likely to emerge in the next parliament.
The impact of this is goes beyond the Sunnis into the Druz political forces, especially the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, who relied on its alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement to win votes and parliamentary seats against forces that are backed by Hezbollah and find an opportunity in the current situation to win seats for the Druz and then increase the number of seats won by Hezbollah and its allies.
3. Popular movements for change:
Forces taking part in the popular protests that broke out in October 2019 organized their ranks in several constituencies presenting independent candidates for the upcoming elections to represent a replacement to political forces challenged by the popular protests, and put up slogans calling for change. In doing this, they are taking advantage of popular anger against politicians, and Christian politicians in particular, that was driven by worsening living conditions and economic hardships. It is also taking advantage of confusion inside the Sunnis and Druz forces in particular. But the bid of these forces to secure influential parliamentary blocs is being faced by challenges, the most important of which is internal disagreement and rivalry as well as confusion within their alliances. Additionally, there is also the determination of the ruling political forces to remain a majority bloc in the parliament.
The upcoming elections seem to provide an opportunity to bring about change to the political landscape in Lebanon, especially amid the changes at play, compared to the 2018 elections, in light of the recent elections in Iraq which produced a relative change to the balance of power that tilted against the forces loyal to Iran, and also because of similarities between the political systems of both Iraq and Lebanon.
Despite that, and in light of the factors noted above, radical changes to the political landscape are unlikely because of the deep influence of the political forces in power on both voters and the popular base. Moreover, Iran is unwilling to lose influence in Lebanon to other forces after its loss in Iraq, and also because the opposition forces are not powerful enough to remove the already influential forces from the scene.
Within this context, a slight change is likely to occur. That is, Christian forces such as the Lebanese Forces or the Kataeb, would win seats from the Free Patriotic Movement. Moreover, allies of Hezbollah would win some seats from the Sunnis to enlarge its bloc. New independent faces might show up at the parliament, but the general scene would remain unchanged. Moreover, likelihood of postponement of the elections or even extending the term of the current parliament continues to hinge on internal and external developments.
