It seems that the death of former Iranian President, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, on the 8th of January 2017 will add to the list of problems facing the moderate movement he was leading and whose power he was trying to preserve. This is especially critical as the elections are fast approaching, scheduled to take place on the 19th of May 2017. Rafsanjani’s political weight was a great advantage inside of the regime, despite the intense pressures from the conservatives and state institutions, headed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The pressure also came from the top by the Ayatollah Ali Khameni who, despite strong relations with Rafsanjani, strongly criticized him on several occasions.
What is most striking is the fact that the loss of Rafsanjani will most likely impact not just the moderate movement in the state but also the state as a whole. This is due to him being a well-known mediator, despite his numerous opponents, who served as a balancing act between the various ideals within the state as well as being a formulator for Iranian foreign policy.
Continued Influence:
From here, the reasons that the high command within the regime, represented in the Ayatollah Khameni, preserved Rafsanjani’s position despite the numerous differences between them, was because Rafsanjani’s stature rose and fell in the previous period. Rafsanjani was subjected to a loss in the Presidential elections conducted in 2005 after Ahmadinejad beat him. He was also prevented from leading prayers in 2009 due to his support of the protest movements that had taken place at the time because of the presidential elections and their results in 2009. Furthermore, some of his sons were also taken to court, facing a number of charges.
Numerous Consequences:
It can be said that Rafsanjani’s absence will result in a number of consequences, whether internally in the regime or amongst the various political powers within the state. His absence will push the regime to rearrange the internal balance of Iran. This will become clearer with how the Ayatollah moves to assign Rafsanjani’s replacement; a post that was Rafsanjani’s since its establishment in 1988. This institution, which Rafsanjani oversaw, was a window into the regime as it dealt with arbitration in the differences between the parliament and the constitutional amendment committee. The person will also take part in the decision-making policies of the state.
The Head of the Council enjoys a very special place amongst the regime. In light of this, the person that the Ayatollah assigns to take over this post will clarify the vision of the Ayatollah for the future of Iranian policies. Proposals for candidates have already been put forth, and they included Ali Akbar, the spokesperson for the former head of parliament, Ali Velayati, former counselor for international relations, and Mohsen Rezaee, the Secretary General of the Expediency Discernment Council.
Without a doubt, Rafsanjani’s death will have a negative effect on the balance of power within the moderate movement, which includes reformers and conservatives alike. Rafsanjani played a role that brought together the two movements and confronted the conservative movement that had a strangle hold on the decision making process in Iran.
His role was made clear in the last election of the Shoura Council and the Council for experts that were both elected in February and April 2016 as the moderates made major gains. This was reflected in Rafsanjani gaining first position in Tehran in the election of experts and the Al Amal List getting the parliamentary seat of Tehran. The moderates have lost a major figure who had the keys to reforming the movement from within and a person who could help regain its status and stature.
Mounting Pressures on Rouhani:
It seems that President Hassan Rouhani is one of the parties negatively affected by Rafsanjani’s death. He was a major influence in Rouhani’s success in the June 2013 elections. Rafsanjani pressured reformers to withdraw their candidate, Mohammad Reza Aref, and support Rouhani. He also convinced conservatives to move to support Rouhani in the election.
Of course Rouhani is in desperate need for the continuation of this support in the upcoming May 2017 elections, not just to face the conservatives who have hindered his progress in being able to achieve returns from the nuclear agreement with the p5+1 group, they have used this as a way to pressure him. He also needed Rafsanjani to help maintain the support of the reformers in light of the increasing discontent towards him, due to his policies during his first presidential term of giving priority to the nuclear deal first and ignoring many other files that were of importance to this movement.
A Possible Crisis:
Rafsanjani’s absence will probably have negative consequences on the current regime as a whole, yet with the increased chances that Iran will be under external pressure during the coming phase, in light of the ongoing struggle in Syria due to the agreements between Russia and Turkey. Another issue is also the possible new policies that would be adopted by the US President Donald Trump and which has shown of late that there will be a new round of US sanctions on Iran. The firing by a US warship on four ships that were part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows how serious Trump is on carrying out the threats to stop Iranian aggression in the Gulf.
In light of this, the Iranian regime is in desperate need to continue the policies that were adopted by Rafsanjani to solve Iran’s internal and external issues. This includes policies that greatly helped Iran reach agreements with the US in the first decade of the 80s when the Islamic Revolution took over.
Finally, it can be said that the possible effects of Rafsanjani’s absence from the Iranian political scene will transcend the borders of the ongoing struggle between the various political powers in Iran. They will also extend towards foreign policy in the coming phase, setting Iran up for a very trying time.
