French President Emmanuel Macron is currently engaged in political consultations to reach a consensus on selecting the next Prime Minister, following a series of complex political developments. This process was triggered by Macron's announcement on August 26, in which he rejected the nomination of Lucie Castet, the candidate proposed by the leftist "New Popular Front" (NFP) coalition.
The NFP coalition had emerged as the top contender in the recent early legislative elections, but Macron's decision to reject their nominee was motivated by his desire to avoid subjecting the candidate to a likely vote of no confidence, given the rejection by other political blocs. In justifying his stance, Macron emphasized that this decision aligns with his role in preserving and ensuring institutional stability.
Macron's Position
Macron’s position underscores the magnitude of the crisis surrounding the formation of the next French government following the recent elections. The complexity of the situation stems from the fact that no coalition managed to secure the required majority to form a government on its own (289 seats out of a total of 577). Instead, the seats of the parliament were distributed among three main blocs: The leftist bloc, The New Popular Front, obtained 182 seats. The centrist bloc, Ensemble (Together), led by Macron, secured 168 seats. The far-right bloc, which includes the National Rally party and its conservative allies, garnered 143 seats. The remaining seats were distributed among other parties, with the Republicans (center-right) notably winning 45 seats.
Despite not having an outright majority, the New Popular Front coalition insists on its right to nominate the new prime minister, citing its victory in terms of seat numbers compared to other alliances and parties. However, Macron contends that the choices of this leftist coalition would be overturned as soon as it takes office through the first vote of no confidence in the government. This assessment is based on the fact that both the centrist bloc led by Macron and the far-right bloc have rejected these choices, making the New Popular Front's selections politically untenable.
The situation was further complicated when the New Popular Front proposed Lucie Castets as the Prime Minister. This nomination drew additional criticism from the centrist and right-wing blocs, with many prominent figures arguing that Castets lacks the necessary political experience and has not held influential positions in public service, making her an unsuitable choice for the role.
As a result of these political dynamics, Macron finds himself navigating a delicate balancing act, seeking to form a government that can command sufficient support in the fragmented National Assembly while also maintaining institutional stability. The ongoing consultations reflect the challenges of coalition-building in a polarized political landscape and highlight the complexities of French governance in the absence of a clear parliamentary majority.
The Left-Wing’s Anger
Macron's rejection of Lucie Castiex, the New Popular Front's candidate, as the head of the new government sparked widespread negative reactions, particularly from the leftist bloc. In response, the New Popular Front vehemently opposed Macron's stance, with the La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) party calling for street protests on September 7 to demonstrate against the French president's refusal to approve a left-wing coalition prime minister. This sentiment was echoed by leaders of the socialist and communist parties, who also pledged to resort to street demonstrations.
Furthermore, on August 31, La France Insoumise (LFI) escalated the situation by urging other parliamentary groups to remove Macron from office. They cited "serious failures" in fulfilling his constitutional duties as justification, according to a draft resolution penned by party members allied with the Greens, Socialists, and Communists within the New Popular Front. However, it is crucial to note that invoking Article 68 of the French Constitution to remove Macron faces significant hurdles, requiring approval from two-thirds of both the National Assembly and the Senate members.
The Socialist Party also rebuffed Macron's position and his call for cooperation with other political forces, viewing it as an attempt to fragment the left-wing Popular Front and align with the centrist bloc. Party leader Olivier Faure declared he would not participate in what he perceived as a charade performed in democracy's name, asserting that Macron aims to perpetuate his policies despite election results suggesting otherwise. Similarly, the Greens expressed their disapproval, with party leader Marine Tondelier claiming that the elections are being "stolen" from the left.
On the far-right spectrum, the National Rally party is employing a nuanced strategy. While they share Macron's opposition to a leftist Prime Minister heading the French government, they simultaneously use the situation to criticize the French president. The party contends that Macron bears responsibility for the current political turmoil due to his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early legislative elections.
Legal Situation
The French Constitution, which governs the relationship between parliament and government, as well as the selection of the prime minister, outlines several key points:
1. Presidential Authority in Prime Minister Selection:
Legally, the French president has complete discretion in choosing the prime minister, regardless of parliamentary majority. Article 8 of the Constitution grants this authority. However, convention typically aligns this choice with the majority coalition to prevent potential no-confidence motions, reflecting the French system of checks and balances.
2. Timing of Prime Minister Appointment:
While no specific legal deadline exists for the president to select a new prime minister, political considerations play a crucial role. The most pressing of these is the presentation of the new year's budget proposal, typically due by early October. This necessitates a fully empowered government, rather than a caretaker administration.
3. Unique Political Landscape:
The current scenario, characterized by a close distribution of seats among the three main blocs, lacks direct historical precedents. This situation contrasts with previous elections, such as in 2022, where despite not achieving an absolute majority (289 seats), Macron's coalition secured a comfortable lead with 250 seats, simplifying the prime minister selection process.
Possible Scenario
Macron's refusal to appoint a new Prime Minister from the New Popular Front can be interpreted from two perspectives. Firstly, maintaining the status quo allows for the continuation of the interim government led by Gabriel Attal, which is advantageous for Macron. Secondly, his insistence on not choosing candidates from the "New Popular Front" is a calculated gamble on the potential collapse of this leftist coalition and the possible defection of some or all of its members from the France Unbowed party, the largest bloc within this alliance.
Macron has explicitly expressed this strategy by urging the Greens and Socialists to cooperate with other political forces. He understands that selecting a Prime Minister from the winning leftist coalition would pose a significant challenge to his policies, potentially even reversing some of them, particularly those related to pension reform and austerity measures. The agenda and electoral program of this leftist bloc fundamentally differ from the direction of Macron's Ensemble (Together) coalition.
However, Macron's maneuvering room appears constrained by two factors. The first is the timeframe for forming the government; relying on a caretaker government is untenable given the need to present the budget law by October and the mounting pressures from the French public. The second is that, despite Macron's disagreements with the leftist bloc's policies, the alternative—the far-right bloc—is completely unacceptable to his centrist coalition.
It is also worth noting that the current situation is pivotal for the France Unbowed party. The stakes extend beyond their potential participation in the next government; it is about their positioning as a party accepted by centrist parties or being equated with the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen.
Given these circumstances, Macron may be compelled to choose a new prime minister from the leftist coalition that won the recent elections, especially if his attempts to fragment this alliance fail and it maintains its unity and insistence on translating electoral gains into political power. In such a scenario, a compromise might be reached where the leftist coalition selects a figure relatively acceptable to the centrist Together bloc, while minimizing the number of ministers from the France Unbowed party.
Furthermore, the current crisis has exposed instability in the relationship between the government and parliament, which is linked to broader political instability. Consequently, some political forces might seize this opportunity to raise the issue of reforming French institutional relationships for discussion, potentially leading to a broader debate on the structure of governance in France.
