On June 26, 2024, Bolivian police arrested former army general commander Juan José Zúñiga and three of his military associates following a failed coup attempt. The day before the unsuccessful takeover, Zúñiga was dismissed from his position for allegedly exceeding his authority, opposing the candidacy of former President Evo Morales in the 2025 presidential elections, and issuing a series of threats against him.
Multiple Explanations
Various motives are behind Zúñiga's coup attempt, which can be outlined as follows:
1- Worsening economic and living conditions:
Some opinions attribute the coup attempt in Bolivia to the country's internal decline, which is evident in its severe economic recession. President Luis Arce has described this crisis as the worst in 40 years. Arce noted that Bolivia imports 86% of its diesel and 56% of its gasoline due to insufficient exploration and production. Additionally, food prices have surged significantly.
Bolivia is also one of the countries with the highest levels of income inequality. Approximately 40% of Bolivia’s 12.5 million people live in extreme poverty, with the wealthiest 10% of the population receiving 44% of the total income, while the poorest 10% receive a mere 0.5%. Factors such as an uninviting business environment, insecurity, drug trafficking, public sector corruption (with 60% of families employed within it), and heavy reliance on imports have led to dollar shortages. This crisis intensified after last year’s interest rate hikes, making it difficult for Bolivia to manage external debts and further weakening its economy.
The country’s political landscape is further complicated by the upcoming 2025 presidential elections. Former leftist President Evo Morales plans to run against his former ally, President Arce, which has created significant fractures within the ruling socialist party and led to political uncertainty. This is coupled with the ongoing social tensions stemming from Morales' departure in 2019 following street protests and intense military pressure.
2- Allegations of a staged coup:
Several analyses have questioned the credibility of the coup, suggesting it may be a self-staged plot orchestrated by Zúñiga and President Arce to enhance the latter’s popularity and position him as a hero ahead of the 2025 elections. The military’s passivity across La Paz and the coup's execution in broad daylight, devoid of the brutality typical of past Latin American military coups, lend credence to this theory. General Zúñiga himself alleged that his mutiny was a hoax devised by President Arce, who is entangled in a fierce political struggle with his former mentor, ex-President Evo Morales, leading to a governmental stalemate in Bolivia. This situation has ignited speculation and accusations from opposition senators and government critics, who describe the uprising as a "self-coup" intended to bolster the president’s popularity amid the nation’s economic and political turmoil.
3- Allegations of U.S. involvement:
Some theories suggest that the failed coup attempt in Bolivia might have been externally motivated to exploit the country’s natural resources. Suspicions particularly fall on the United States, which has previously been accused of involvement in Bolivia's past military takeovers. In 2019, the military forced anti-American President Evo Morales to resign, purportedly to gain access to Bolivia’s rich mineral deposits, especially lithium. Former U.S. President Donald Trump even described the event as “a significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere.”
Theories linking General Juan José Zúñiga’s coup attempt to American or major corporate support, particularly from the electric car industry, align with one of the primary reasons for Zúñiga's removal: his threat to arrest Evo Morales if Morales ran for president in the upcoming elections. It is noteworthy that Bolivia holds between 50% to 70% of the world’s lithium reserves, which are crucial for manufacturing batteries for phones, electronics, and electric vehicles. This resource has been a cornerstone of President Arce’s economic strategy, especially after signing a billion-dollar deal with China to boost production and advance economic development.
U.S. concerns have also been heightened by Bolivia’s growing relationship with Russia, particularly regarding lithium exploitation projects. In 2023, Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, signed a contract with Bolivian lithium company YLB to establish an industrial complex for lithium carbonate production in Potosí, Bolivia. These concerns were further intensified by President Arce’s visit to Russia in early June 2024 to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. During the event, President Arce discussed Bolivia’s potential BRICS membership with Russian President Vladimir Putin and emphasized strengthening bilateral economic ties following the expulsion of German companies from lithium production and the absence of negotiations with American companies.
4- The Bolivian President's support for Gaza:
Some suggest that the true motive behind the coup in Bolivia is President Arce’s support for Gaza and his anti-Israel stance, including backing South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice. In November 2023, Bolivia announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Israel following the October 7 attack and the subsequent war on Gaza. This decision deepened the rift between the ruling bloc and the opposition, which advocates for maintaining strong relations with the United States and its allies.
Significant Implications
The failed coup attempt in Bolivia revealed several crucial implications, detailed as follows:
1- Lack of army support for the Coup:
Several analyses indicate that Zúñiga failed to achieve the coup's objectives due to multiple factors, with the most prominent being the lack of timely support from the armed forces. The army and air force did not arrive on time, and Zúñiga could only convince a few army units and eight tanks to join him. The majority of the army remained loyal to the Bolivian president.
Moreover, the Bolivian police played a crucial role in thwarting the coup. They surrounded the coup leaders, encircled the presidential palace and government headquarters, and arrested the coup plotters under the instructions of the interior minister, who personally oversaw the operation. Additionally, there were no movements around the parliament or government television channels during the coup attempt, which took place near the presidential palace.
Another key reason for the coup's failure was the role of the Bolivian people. Citizens actively resisted the coup, chasing the troops loyal to General Juan José Zúñiga and driving them out of Murillo Square in the capital, La Paz.
2- Boosting Evo Morales' chances:
Some analysts suggest that the coup revealed the clear and firm stance taken by former President Evo Morales. Morales not only condemned the attempt unequivocally but also called for national mobilization to defend democracy. He announced an indefinite strike, organized road closures, and united with the government to declare that they would not allow the armed forces to undermine democracy and instill fear among the people.
In this context, some predict that Morales' chances of winning the upcoming elections could be bolstered—provided his candidacy is not suspended. His enduring support from coca farmers and labor unions remains significant. In contrast, Arce lacks Morales' charisma, political acumen, and established legacy.
3- International and regional condemnations:
The failed coup in Bolivia underscored the extent of external support for President Arce, evident through the widespread condemnation from many international and regional leaders. Chilean President Gabriel Boric affirmed his support for democracy in Bolivia and the legitimate government of Luis Arce. Similarly, leaders from Ecuador, Peru, Mexico, and Colombia called for the respect of democracy in Bolivia.
Additionally, the Secretary-General of the Organization of American States, Luis Almagro, condemned the attempt to mobilize the Bolivian army via X, emphasizing that the military should be subordinate to the legitimately elected civil authority. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for respect for democracy and the rule of law in Bolivia, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern over the developments. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also condemned the failed putsch, reaffirming Russia's full and unwavering support for President Luis Arce's government and renewing solidarity with Bolivia, a trusted strategic partner.
In conclusion, it is premature to definitively assess the impact of the coup attempt on Bolivia's political landscape. The future trajectory depends on the responses of President Arce and other political actors, the progress of the investigation, and the consequences faced by the coup leaders.
On one hand, the failed coup might bolster popular and military support for anti-coup principles, which some observers believe has been diminishing in recent years. On the other hand, unsuccessful coups often prompt leaders to seek greater control and consolidate power, posing a threat to long-term democratic stability.
