Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden discussed ways to strengthen bilateral ties across various domains and improve security in the Indo-Pacific region. Both parties also tackled the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the means of countering the Chinese influence. The talks came as part of Modi's official visit to the White House from June 21 to 24, 2023.
China: The Common Obsession
Modi's visit unfolded in a context where Beijing represented the common denominator uniting New Delhi and Washington, as illustrated below:
1. India's rising power:
Several indicators of India's growing strength and international standing have emerged in recent years. These include ranking fifth in the world in terms of economic size, estimated to be around USD 3.202 trillion, according to International Monetary Fund data. India is also of the world's fastest-growing economies. By 2028, its GDP is predicted to surpass that of Japan and Germany.
Moreover, India succeeded this year in overtaking China to become the world's largest country in terms of population. It is also significant for the United States, which regards its relationship with India as the most important bilateral partnership on the global stage in the twenty-first century.
2. China’s growing influence:
The visit coincided with China's increasing role and influence in Asia and several geostrategic locations worldwide. This was evidenced by the China-Central Asia Summit that Beijing hosted for the first time. Similarly, China has sought to expand its influence in the Central American region, Washington's backyard, as demonstrated by Honduran President Xiomara Castro's recent visit to Beijing from June 9 to 14, 2023. As such, one of the goals of Modi's visit to Washington is reflected in the two countries joint efforts to deploy their capabilities to counter China's expanding influence.
3. Shared concerns about Beijing:
There are numerous reasons why the United States and India are currently strengthening their ties. Perhaps the most significant of these are the two countries' shared concern about China's growing influence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, their concern about Chinese naval expansion in the Indian Ocean, and the border tensions between China and India. For its part, the US is working with its allies to divert global technology supply chains away from China to minimize reliance on it. The country is also expanding security and military operations in collaboration with its Asian regional allies to surround and limit China.
Common Interests
Modi's visit to Washington took place amid a clear understanding between the two countries on the need to strengthen collaboration to accomplish their mutual objectives. The following points highlight the significant areas of cooperation:
1. Providing American defense technologies to India:
In an effort to diversify supplies of armaments and decrease undue reliance on Russia, India has shown exceptional interest in settling military deals with the United States. Similarly, New Delhi is seeking advanced US military technologies to help control its land and marine borders with China.
In the same context, informed sources stated that the Biden administration is counting on Modi's official visit to Washington to push New Delhi to reduce its bureaucratic procedures and help complete the purchase of dozens of US-made drones.
2. Cooperation in the advanced technology field:
The US seeks to gain from the skilled Indian workforce, particularly in the realm of technology. In March, US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo announced cooperation with her Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal related to the semiconductor supply chain.
Prior to Modi's visit, the two countries held the inaugural meeting of the India-US Strategic Trade Dialogue in early June 2023. The dialogue focused on facilitating the development and trade of technologies in areas such as semiconductors, aerospace, communications, artificial intelligence, defense, biotechnology, and others.
3. India as an industrial alternative to China:
The Indian prime minister aims to build his country's economy on modern technology by attracting Western investments and transferring technology, as well as making India the new destination for American companies looking to exit the Chinese market. This means that Modi is presenting his country to American companies in China, as a commercial and industrial alternative. India is also aiming to attract US technology and investment to strengthen its manufacturing sector.
In this context, Elon Musk, owner of Twitter and CEO of Tesla, announced on June 21, 2023, his company’s intention to make large potential investments in India following his meeting with Modi.
4. Limiting the Indo-Russian relations:
India has ultimately deepened its relations with Russia, even after the latter invaded its neighbor Ukraine. New Delhi did not criticize the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and further expanded its imports of Russian oil and increased is reliance on Russian weaponry supply.
It is also well known that India is heavily reliant on Russia for oil and weaponry. The country is the world's largest customer of Russian arms, accounting for around 20% of Russian weapons delivered to Asian countries.
Strategic Alignments
Biden and Modi declared a "new era" in US-Indian relations, as the visit saw the signing of substantial agreements in a variety of fields. Washington sees New Delhi as a counter-force to China, as evidenced by the following:
1. US technology transfer to India:
The United States agreed to transfer jet engine manufacturing technology to India for use in the production of Indian aircraft. This comes as part of an agreement between General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics to jointly manufacture the "F414" engine in India. The two countries have also agreed to supply 30 MQ-9B Sea Guardian unmanned aircraft to India.
These moves would help Washington in achieving its goal of decreasing India's reliance on Russia as an arms exporter while also extending its cooperation in the military and defense industries.
2. Semiconductor cooperation:
Both parties agreed that US chip giant Micron will invest USD 800 million in a chip factory in India, with total investments amounting to USD 2.75 billion, with India funding the remainder. This demonstrates the US’s aim to halt the flow of critical chips to China and diversify supply chains to decrease reliance on Beijing, despite Micron's recent announcement of a USD 600 million investment in China.
3. Settling commercial disputes:
The United States and India agreed to settle six trade disputes. According to a statement from the US Trade Representative Office, these include procedures involving solar energy cells and solar energy modules in the renewable energy sector, as well as steel and aluminum products.
4. Efforts to settle the Ukrainian crisis:
During a joint press conference with Modi on June 22, 2023, Biden made it clear that the discussions focused on coordinating efforts to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the aftermath of the Russian invasion. Modi, on the other hand, stated that his country has pursued a peaceful solution since the first day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that it has pushed for solutions through diplomacy. He also stressed India’s willingness to participate in any efforts to restore peace.
5. Strengthening security partnership:
The two countries agreed to work within the framework of the "Quad" alliance, which includes Australia, Japan, the United States, and India, to ensure the security and stability of the Indo-Pacific region. As part of its efforts to counter China's global influence, the Biden administration seeks to deepen its security partnership with India through "Quad.”
6. Ignoring human rights issues:
Members of the US Congress demanded that President Biden discuss with Modi issues of concern, such as shrinking political space in India, persecuting the opposition, and increasing restrictions on press freedom. Yet, the Biden administration ignored these calls, as evidenced by National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, who stated that Biden will not teach Modi human rights lessons.
Multiple Indications
Modi's visit to Washington reflected various political implications, the most notable of which can be observed below:
1. Big ovation for Modi:
It should be emphasized that Modi was met with remarkable hospitality during his visit, as seen by the holding of military welcoming ceremonies. President Biden and his wife, Jill, also hosted an official dinner at the White House for a small group of guests. Some attribute Modi's warm reception in Washington to his country's geographical location, as no other country has the size or ability to act as a counterbalance to China.
2. India’s independent policy:
It should be noted that India has refrained from taking positions supportive of Washington's tendencies in such a way that it would align itself with the American camp against China or Russia. This reveals New Delhi's desire to pursue a foreign policy based on its national interests. In this context, India refrained from criticizing Russia's intervention in Ukraine, instead stating its support for a peaceful resolution.
3. Continued US escalation against China:
This followed US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's visit to China on June 18 and 19, 2023 - one that did not fully succeed in reducing tensions between Beijing and Washington. This was evidenced by Biden's statements in which he criticized his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, dubbing him a "dictator," – a move that infuriated Beijing.
It should be noted that Biden's criticism of Xi came just hours before Modi was greeted at the White House. This may indicate Biden's attempt to belittle the status of the Chinese president at a time when he is exceptionally celebrating the Indian prime minister. This could make Beijing more aggressive in dealing with Biden in the future, especially because his statement has been viewed as a political provocation and a violation of diplomatic protocol.
The US’s bet on pulling India to its side as part of its ongoing efforts to surround and limit China in the Asia-Pacific area will not likely succeed. Despite the fact that the United States and India have many common interests, and that Modi's recent visit to Washington resulted in significant gains for both parties, New Delhi is keen to pursue a foreign policy characterized by independence and balance in its relations with the United States and China. This makes Washington's bet on drawing India to the confrontation against China probably unlikely.
