The most recent message by Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahri on January 5th 2017, where he strongly attacked ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, marks new escalation between the two rival groups. It coincides with military operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, which have to some degree cut back the group’s human and financial resources. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda is striving once again to become the top terrorist organisation in the world after it declined on the organisational and operational levels.
Several goals:
It is notable that the recent escalation by Al-Zawahri came after a relative hiatus in the ideological and media war between the two sides, at least over the past four months. Al-Zawahri appears to be aiming at several goals at this particular time, including:
1- Taking advantage of ISIS’ retreat: Al-Qaeda realizes that the activities and influence of IS has obviously started to wane since mid-2016, two years after it raided Mosul in northern Iraq. This retreat is evident in both the group’s main strongholds in Iraq and Syria, especially after the start of the battle to liberate Mosul which the group is gradually losing control over since Iraqi forces regained control with the help of the US-led international coalition. In other countries in crisis that the group recently penetrated, such as Libya, the group was forced to retreat from some areas under its control because of military operations against it in parallel with US strikes targeting many of its leaders such as Ahmed Al-Hamali who was also known as the Wali of Tripoli in August 2016. According to US reports in December, 2016, IS lost some 50,000 fighters in two years since the start of military operations by the international alliance.
At the same time, there is a decline in the ability of terrorist groups that pledged allegiance to IS in some countries to carry out significant terrorist attacks as a result of military strikes against them, and restrictions by security agencies in these countries after greater security coordination with international powers concerned with the war against terrorism, such as the US.
Much analyses indicate that Al-Zawahri wants to take advantage of this to put more pressure on IS and weaken it further. They make a link between these efforts and Al-Zawahri’s call in August, 2016, to some armed factions in Syria to form a united council to set priorities and assign duties. Also, creating a judicial authority to mitigate disputes among them. This is viewed as an attempt by Al-Qaeda’s leader to draw closer to these factions and widen their differences with ISIS.
2- Recruiting new members: In his recent message, Al-Zawahri wants to recruit new members and terrorist groups to join his group by asking to focus on targeting US interests, since he believes it represents a common enemy for these terrorist groups because of military strikes against their leaders and members around the world.
It is also notable that in recent messages, Al-Zawahri focused on directly threatening the US, such as in the message marking 15 years since the 9/11 attacks when he suggested “repeating this event thousands of times”. It appears that Al-Zawahri even tried to attract members inside Western countries by focusing on some of their troubles, such as referring to clashes between African Americans and White people in the US and asserting that “African Americans will never gain their rights through the constitution which is under the control of White people.”
There are many indicators that the group is working on creating a new terrorist group inside Syria by taking advantage of obvious divisions, whether between IS and other terrorist groups or within these groups such as Al-Nusra Front which splintered from the group and changed its name to Fatah Al-Sham in mid-2016. It wanted to achieve several goals, such as avoid being include on the list of terrorist groups that are not exempt from strikes during occasional ceasefires.
Although many believe that this shift by Al-Nusra Front may only be cosmetic and not actual change in its ideology or outlook, this does not mean that Al-Qaeda will not attempt to take advantage of these divisions to form a new group that may be more loyal to it since members of this group refused to leave Al-Qaeda since the start.
3- Regaining influence: Zawahri’s renewed attack on Baghdadi appears to be an attempt to regain influence within Al-Qaeda after it declined in recent years, especially in terms of organization, as a result of a decline in the main group’s activities during that time and its inability to carry out significant terrorist attacks on a par with IS operations in some regional and European countries, such as in France and Belgium.
This has resulted in a decline in Al-Zawahri’s role to the advantage of the group’s branch leaders such as Abdel-Malek Droukdel, leader of Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Mokhtar Belmoukhtar, leader of Murabitoun, and Abu Mohamed Al-Jolani, leader of Fatah El-Sham (previously Al-Nusra Front). These leaders have tried to bolster their control of strongholds in countries where they are present, such as Syria and some countries in West Africa, despite the pressure they are under by security agencies in these countries.
Nonetheless, efforts by Al-Qaeda to once again rise to the forefront of terrorist groups may face many challenges, most notably more defections within the group because of its waning role and limited ability to carry out significant terrorist attacks. Also, targeting of its leaders by some powers and parties participating in the war against terrorism. This could increase the probability that Al-Qaeda will continue to escalate against IS in the coming phase, perhaps after waiting to see the results of military operations against the latter which will directly impact the balance of power among terrorist groups.
