Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing for a rare third consecutive term in office, making him the second Indian Prime Minister to do so after Congress Party leader Jawaharlal Nehru in 1962. With all votes counted by June 4, 2024, Modi's BJP and its allies secured a majority of 283 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. According to the Indian electoral system, a party or coalition winning more than 272 seats can form a new government. According to preliminary results, the opposition INDIA alliance, led by the INC, performed better than expected, winning 235 seats, with 642 million out of approximately one billion registered voters participating.
Despite Modi's expected victory, most results were shocking, especially for Modi's supporters. The BJP alone won only 240 seats, losing the single-party majority it enjoyed since Modi was first elected in 2014. For the first time since then, Modi will need to court his allied parties as they are essential to achieving the majority this time, unlike previous instances where his party secured a majority without any help from any other parties.
At a Crossroads
The election result dealt a blow to Modi, who has dominated India's political scene for the past decade. This failure to secure a majority will make it more difficult for the BJP to implement its economic policy and could make Modi more indebted to his allies. Modi and his party campaigned under the ambitious slogan, "Abki baar, 400 paar" (This time, more than 400), which set a target of 400 seats for its NDA coalition and 370 seats for the BJP itself.
However, the plan backfired, leading to counterproductive results. The BJP did not even win a simple majority alone, a stark contrast to its sweeping victory in 2019.
1. Modi's failure to secure popular support for his policies:
The unprecedented result signifies an unprecedented electoral impasse for Modi, who, after over 23 years in politics, beginning as the chief minister of the state of Gujarat in 2002 and then as the prime minister of India since 2014, failed to garner popular support for his policies, which some considered racist, nationalist, and targeting minorities, playing on religious sentiments without offering realistic solutions to the problems affecting large parts of India.
2. Impact of economic pressures:
The election results in India showed that Modi's overwhelming popularity could not withstand the growing problems in many regions, particularly with his reliance on a limited economic class led by Modi's billionaire friend Adani. Despite many expecting a sweeping victory for Modi in what was seen as a referendum on his ten years in power, these elections also revealed widespread dissatisfaction with Modi's policies, exacerbated by the manner in which his campaign was run to focus on his strong persona as the first prime minister to serve three consecutive terms since Nehru.
3. Unexpected gains for the opposition:
Although the BJP dominated the elections in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, the opposition made unexpected gains in Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab. These were seen as messages from voters opposing the BJP's "policies of hate, corruption, and deprivation." The opposition accused the BJP of seeking to amend the constitution in line with its Hindu nationalist agenda, which angered voters who saw it as a mandate for them to defend India's constitution, combat rising prices, unemployment, and crony capitalism, and save democracy.
A Bet Lost
The results of India's recent general elections and the decline in the number of seats for the ruling party carry several implications, the most important of which can be outlined as follows:
1. Muslim minority uniting against Modi:
The results showed that Muslim votes were unified in favor of the opposition coalition. This led to the BJP losing seats in several of its strongholds in the Hindi-speaking northern states, especially in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state in India, Uttar Pradesh, wields significant influence in Indian elections, having approximately 80 parliamentary seats. In these elections, the ruling party secured only 33 seats compared to 71 and 62 seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections, respectively. The BJP also lost in the Faizabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh, where Modi inaugurated the Ram Mandir, a grand Hindu temple and the key element of the BJP's campaign.
2. Reliance on nationalist and sectarian policies:
Modi's party's reliance on nationalist and sectarian rhetoric led to increased voter anxiety about the party's future direction. The BJP employed nationalist and racist policies to attract Hindu voters in most regions, hoping for a landslide victory. However, these policies only secured a symbolic victory in the southern state of Kerala, long considered a leftist stronghold. This reflects anti-Islamic sentiments in the Christian communities in Kerala, where Hindus constitute 55% of the population, while Muslims and Christians make up 27% and 18%, respectively.
The party also lost the elections in its stronghold, Uttar Pradesh, despite Modi inaugurating a Hindu temple in Ayodhya just a few months ago as part of his promises to promote Hindu national heritage. However, the party retained its stronghold in Karnataka, winning 19 seats compared to the opposition's nine seats.
3. Victory of separatist Voices:
Beyond losing the majority, Modi also faces the challenge of rising separatist sentiments as a reaction to the BJP's nationalist campaign. Separatist candidates won in this election, such as Amritpal Singh, a Sikh separatist leader advocating for an independent Sikh state called Khalistan, who was arrested last year after a month-long police chase in Punjab. Another significant win was Sheikh Abdul Rashid from Kashmir, an Indian-administered region in the disputed Himalayas, who won a seat with over 200,000 votes. Rashid, a former state legislator detained on charges of "terrorism financing" and money laundering in 2019, represents growing dissent against Modi's policies.
Varying Impacts
Despite these shocking results, Modi is likely to continue his economic and political agenda but may face challenges from his coalition regarding domestic and foreign issues, especially relations with Pakistan and economic reforms. The widening class gap, rising living costs, and unprecedented unemployment rates were major voter concerns. Modi's government ignored popular discontent over economic hardships and unemployment, leading to a loss of its decade-long majority. Some of the potential impacts are outlined below:
1. Slowing major projects:
One expected outcome of the recent elections is the slowing of major projects in the country. As regional governments gain strength against Modi, states are likely to focus on combating poverty and unemployment, slowing national programs, and improving basic services such as drinking water, sewage, sanitation, and electricity, which means the central government may be less able to impose its programs on state governments.
2. Legislative difficulties ahead:
The ruling party in India will likely face challenges in passing legislative reforms, unlike in its previous terms. The upcoming coalition is expected to reject several of Modi's economic policies, especially those benefiting business elites and the wealthy, in favor of policies more suitable for the poor. These elections should also weaken any BJP attempts to advance policies fueling religious tensions, as a decade of Modi's rule has increased religious polarization.
3. Limited impact on foreign policy:
The election results are likely to have a limited impact on the country's foreign policy, given Modi's successes in this area during his previous terms. Modi's foreign policy is expected to continue focusing on securing permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council, forming strategic alliances, addressing the Chinese challenge, strengthening ties with India's neighbors, and supporting alliances with the United States while balancing defense and trade relations with Russia, and bolstering India's role in Africa and Latin America.
The recent elections indicate a decline in the popularity of Modi's nationalist policies. Voters rejected Modi's populist vision for a Hindu-first nation, and despite his economic and foreign successes, his nationalist policies caused significant concern, allowing the opposition to make unexpected gains. While the impact on economic and political policies may be limited, Modi will be forced to reassess his domestic and foreign strategies, possibly altering policies related to nationalism, poverty, unemployment, and anti-Muslim rhetoric, especially with upcoming municipal elections to avoid a significant defeat in the next general elections in 2027.
