The recognition of a Palestinian state by Spain, Norway, and Ireland on May 28, 2024, holds special significance, especially when compared to previous instances by other European countries. This event surpasses the earlier recognitions by countries such as Sweden in 2014, and Hungary, Poland, and Cyprus, among others, which occurred before their accession to the European Union. The particular significance of this recent recognition arises from the unique circumstances surrounding these countries' roles and motivations vis-à-vis the State of Palestine, as well as the international context accompanying this recognition. This is especially notable in the wake of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza.
The Evolution of Statehood Recognition for Palestine
Since the Palestinian Declaration of Independence in 1988, also known as the Algiers Declaration, which formally established the State of Palestine, and the acceptance of the two-state solution, 85 countries have recognized the State of Palestine. Through persistent Palestinian diplomatic efforts, this number has risen to 137 countries over the following decades. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, prior to the announcements of Spain, Norway, and Ireland's intention to recognize Palestine, the number of recognizing countries stood at 144. As of today, this number has reached 147, with 11 of these countries being European nations.
On November 29, 2012, Palestine obtained non-member observer state status in the United Nations, a decision that garnered the approval of 138 countries. However, 9 countries opposed the decision, and 41 abstained. This status granted Palestine the right to join UN agencies, paving the way for its membership in UNESCO in 2011 and the International Criminal Court in 2015. Subsequently, in 2018, Israel and the United States withdrew from UNESCO in protest of Palestine’s membership, but the U.S. later reversed this decision in 2023.
On April 18, 2024, the United States exercised its veto power to block a Palestinian request for full UN membership in the United Nations Security Council. The resolution, proposed by Algeria on behalf of the Arab group, received 12 favorable votes out of 15, with the United Kingdom and Switzerland abstaining. Deputy US Ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood, justified the veto by emphasizing that the decision was not a reflection of opposition to Palestinian statehood but an acknowledgment that it can only be achieved through direct negotiations between the parties.
Understanding the National and International Context of Recognition by Three Countries
The recognition of the State of Palestine by Spain, Norway, and Ireland holds significant historical importance due to these countries' pivotal roles in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Spain hosted the first peace conference in 1991 in Madrid following the Gulf War and was selected as the venue for peace talks due to its deep-rooted historical ties with the Arab world. Norway played a crucial role in facilitating the Oslo Accords in 1993, also known as the Declaration of Principles, which were signed on September 13, 1993, at the White House. Ireland, shaped by its own struggle against colonialism, has extended its support to the Palestinian people in their quest for statehood and independence.
The timing of the recognition by these three European countries holds significant importance, coming in the aftermath of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the disproportionate Israeli war on Gaza, which resulted in a high civilian death toll. This reflects the evolving international stance in favor of ending the cycle of violence and establishing peace and stability in the region, with the two-state solution being identified as the most effective resolution to the conflict. This departure from the international community's longstanding neglect of the two-state solution and acceptance of the Israeli narrative that no Palestinian partner exists signifies a pivotal shift in approach. Therefore, maintaining the status quo is no longer a viable solution. The international community's commitment to pressuring for a two-state solution is the optimal path for stability and peace for all parties involved.
Moreover, unlike previous instances, the recent move by these three countries to fully recognize the State of Palestine may pave the way for the exchange of ambassadors and the establishment of diplomatic relations. This recognition could also lead to bilateral agreements for economic and trade cooperation. In international law, scholars make a distinction between "constitutive recognition" and "declaratory recognition." The former establishes the new international personality of the recognized state, while the latter is based on the existence of state elements. In the case of Palestine, the elements of statehood—territory, population, and authority—are present. The recognized territories include those occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, as per UN resolutions. The authority is represented by the Palestinian National Authority established in 1994 and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which is internationally recognized and a signatory of the Oslo Accords. It is evident that the Palestinian people in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, and refugees are actively engaged in the struggle for independence. Historically, Palestine had international recognition until 1945, issuing visas and passports and signing agreements.
Significance and Implications of Recognizing Palestine
The recognition of the State of Palestine holds significant implications in affirming and adopting the two-state solution by the international community. While its symbolic value is widely acknowledged, its impact extends beyond symbolism. It encompasses crucial interactions and dynamics that are vital for Palestine's diplomatic and political presence on the international stage.
The first implication, which is perhaps less visible, is the international community's desire to address the historical injustice Palestinians have faced since the 1947 Partition Plan (Resolution 181). While most recognizing countries may not have a direct impact on the conflict's trajectory or the Israeli stance, the broadening scope of this recognition, encompassing a majority of UN member states, holds tremendous potential. It may exert moral and ethical pressure on countries that do have influence over Israeli decision-making, such as the United States. Simultaneously, the global spread of the Palestinian state’s recognition diminishes the impact of the Israeli narrative and bolsters the credibility of the Palestinian and Arab perspective.
Furthermore, the increasing international acknowledgment of Palestine may heighten Israel’s "diplomatic isolation." This could potentially result in the disruption or deterioration of relations with these nations, and even the potential recall of ambassadors or suspension of diplomatic ties. Naturally, this underscores the need to strengthen relations with the Palestinian state and expand its representation in international forums and organizations. Substantiating this, following the acquisition of observer status at the UN as a non-member state, Palestine has joined the International Criminal Court, which is presently deliberating requests for the issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders implicated in the conflict in Gaza.
The increasing acknowledgment of the State of Palestine will further reinforce its quest for full membership in the United Nations. This will enhance its diplomatic representation in global forums, ensuring that Palestinian voices resonate within the international community. One of the most notable consequences of international recognition is the bolstering of the status of the territories occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem. Official recognition could put an end to the legal status advocated by Israel, which characterizes these territories as disputed or "ownerless" lands, a stance used by Tel Aviv to justify its occupation of the Palestinian territories.
At a higher level, the legal foundation for acknowledging the State of Palestine is rooted in UN General Assembly or Security Council resolutions concerning the occupied Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem, and the illegality of settlements and annexation. Consequently, these acknowledgments enhance the credibility and enforceability of international resolutions issued by the global community.
From an economic standpoint, recognition could pave the way for bilateral economic and trade agreements. Subsequently, these agreements could afford the State of Palestine preferential treatment or most-favored-nation status, thereby supporting the Palestinian quest for statehood, facilitating aid requests, and alleviating the impact of the imposed blockade.
Despite the positive political, diplomatic, legal, and economic implications of Spain, Norway, and Ireland's recognition of the State of Palestine, there are potential drawbacks. One such pitfall could be Israel's refusal to use Norway as a third party to transfer clearance funds to the Palestinian Authority. Additionally, on May 22, 2024, Israel announced the repeal of the 2005 Disengagement Law in the northern West Bank. This reversal allows Israelis to return to former settlements from which they had been banned since an evacuation order was issued in 2005.
In conclusion, the analysis of the gains and losses related to the recognition of the State of Palestine by the three European countries strongly favors the Palestinian side. This recognition has the potential to inspire other nations to adopt a similar position, thereby exerting positive pressure that could influence the path toward a two-state solution. The increasing recognition of the Palestinian state, in addition to its symbolic significance, rekindles support for the two-state solution as the most viable option. It also compels the right-wing elite and Israeli public opinion to respond with flexibility to these pressures in order to prevent Israel from becoming isolated. Ultimately, this could pave the way for the emergence of new prospects for stability, granting the Palestinian people their rightful statehood and freedom from occupation.
