Recent reports in the international press revealed the
increasing Iranian support to Taliban in Afghanistan. Over the past years, such
information would have been considered as “fake news”, due to the strong
support provided by Teheran to the Afghan Northern Alliance fighting the
Taliban. However, the ongoing developments in the Middle East, generically, and
in Afghanistan, particularly, led Teheran to shift its foreign policy towards
Afghanistan.
Iranian Interests in
Afghanistan
Iranian intervention in the Afghani affairs is not
recent. Since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 by the NATO forces in the
aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Tehran has been highly
concerned about the situation in its neighboring country. Iran aimed to secure
its border to prevent the crossing of al-Qaeda members attempting to escape US
bombings of their former safe-haven in Afghanistan. The Mullah’s regime then
had no real affinity with the Sunni jihadist organization created by Osama Ben
Laden, despite that they shared similar views on regional policies. Yet, the
Iranian rulers showed no intention of offering al-Qaeda members an exile in
Iran.
The drug trafficking from Afghanistan has always been
a massive challenge for the Iranian authorities, as confirmed in a recent
study.[i]
Due to the repercussions of drug trafficking on the Iranian population, Teheran
attempted to intervene directly in Afghanistan to stop the influx of narcotics
into Iran.
Thus, Iran has undertaken several actions to
strengthen its influence in western Afghanistan, financing the construction of
homes, hospitals, and schools to gain support of populations who share the same
culture and sometimes the same language. Teheran anticipated that this strategy
will lead the local rulers of western Afghanistan to fight al-Qaeda members and
halt drug trafficking to Iran.
The Emergence of ISK
ISIS, the jihadist organization born in Iraq, has not
only aimed to establish a new Caliphate around the Muslim world, but also to
purify Islam from its “deviations.” Thus, it started targeting the Shi’ite
community around the Muslim world, notably in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.
Inspired by the creation of its counterpart in Iraq,
the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISK) was proclaimed as the local branch of ISIS
in Afghanistan in 2015. In July 2016, 80 Shi’ites were killed in a suicide
attack in Kabul during a public demonstration and ISK claimed responsibility
for the attack. Another attack against a Shi’ite mosque, during the celebration
of Ashura in October 2016, killed 18 people. Despite that the Taliban are
considered as Muslim rigorists, they condemned the attacks, describing them as
“an attempt to divide the nation.”[ii]
Iran, with a Shi’ite majority population, has also
been a target for the jihadist fighters of the Islamic State. The emergence of
this new threat in Afghanistan, pushed Iran, which was for a long time a strong
opponent of the Taliban, to consider collaborating with their former enemies to
fight against ISIS. Taliban has perceived ISIS as a rival threatening its
influence in the region. Accordingly, Taliban agreed to cooperate with Iran to
fight ISIS.
In 2015, a secret meeting was organized in Teheran
between Iranian officials and representatives of Taliban. [iii]
Despite that Iranian officials denied the visit, many press articles revealed
the collaboration between Iran and the Taliban to fight ISIL in Afghanistan.
Teheran provided Taliban with the required weapons, funds and military
training.[iv]
Threat to Central Asia
Sharing borders with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan, the stability of Afghanistan is vital for the former Soviet
Republics. The connections between ISK and other jihadist groups, such as the
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), could destabilize the whole region. Thus,
Iran, Russia and China have been highly concerned with fighting ISK. Russia and
China, which fight jihadism movements in their own territories, are worried
about the propagation of the Islamic State in Central Asia and its potential
repercussions on their own security and interests.
Iran has played a significant role in establishing contacts
between Russia and Taliban. In 2016, it organized a secret meeting between
former Mullah Mansour and Russian officials[v] to
discuss the fight against ISK. According to the New York Times, during his
visit in Iran Mullah Mansour also probably met with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the
Supreme Leader of Iran. A British press article reported another meeting was
held in 2015 in Tajikistan between Russian President Vladimir Poutine and
Mullah Mansour, but this report was denied by Russian officials.[vi]
As a strategy of diversification, Taliban tried to gain
the support of both Moscow and Teheran, rather than relying on one source of
support. The death of Mullah Mansour in US strike in May 2016 could be
interpreted as an attempt by the US to cut Taliban ties with Russia and
Iran.
However Russia took the lead when Moscow hosted a
regional conference[vii]
about the security in Central Asia and Afghanistan in April 2017. This
conference was boycotted by the US, as Washington accuses Moscow of undermining
the former efforts to stabilize Afghanistan through backing Taliban in its fight
against the official government of Kabul. Moscow, however, considers the
strategy of the official Afghan government to fight against the Taliban, while
turning a blind eye to ISIS, as a mistake. In response, Teheran has succeeded
in creating a regional axis, including Taliban, despite the US objections.
Conclusion
While ISIS is being defeated in Iraq and Syria,
another front is opening in Afghanistan backed by Iran and Russia. The creation
of the Iran-Russia-Taliban axis enabled Tehran to fight ISIS, and weaken the
Washington-backed government in Kabul. As Iran was surrounded by US troops in
Iraq and Afghanistan fifteen years ago, Tehran’s current strategy aims to
reduce the US military influence in its neighboring countries, even if
President Trump recently announced a new US strategy for Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, even if in the short term, Tehran could achieve its objectives in Afghanistan, the Mullah’s regime should be concerned about the future of its eastern neighbor, even if ISIS is defeated. A collapse of the central government of Kabul could generate greater instability. Nobody can anticipate the chaos that would happen in case the central government has been weakened. Undermining the Afghani government could possibly lead to destabilizing Afghanistan, and increasing the influence of Taliban, which would not be the best guarantee for Iran’s security and interests.
[i]
« Iran's drug problem: Addicts 'more than double' in six years”, BBC, 25 June 2017
[ii]
Milo Comerford, « ISIS is now waging a sectarian war in Afghanistan – and
even the Taliban opposes it”, Independent,
28 July 2016
[iii]
« Why did the Taliban go to Teheran » The Guardian, 22 May 2015
[iv]
Yochi Dreazen, « Exclusive: Iran Teams With Taliban to Fight Islamic State
in Afghanistan », Foreign Policy, 26
May 2016
[v]
Carlotta Gall, «In Afghanistan, U.S. Exits, and Iran Comes In”, New York Times, 5 August 2017
[vi] «Taliban
says no contacts with Russia over Islamic State», Reuters, 27 December 2015
[vii]
Erin Cunningham, « While the U.S. wasn’t looking, Russia and Iran began
carving out a bigger role in Afghanistan », The
Washington Post, 13 April 2017