Spain
witnessed twin terrorist attacks that targeted Barcelona and the seaside resort
of Cambrils, leaving at least 14 dead and 100 injured on August 17. On the
following day, a stabbing attack occurred at two markets in the Finnish city of
Turku, south of Finland, which resulted in killing two people and injuring six
others.[1] In
Russia’s northern city of Surgut, a third assault happened as a knife attacker
stabbed eight people on the street on August 19, 2017.
These
developments have raised concerns regarding the unsophisticated techniques that
ISIS is utilizing in directing its attacks in Europe.
The article will shed the light on such unsophisticated techniques, namely ramming, stabbing and derailing the trains. In addition, it will assess why terrorist organizations increasingly resort to these tactics. Finally, it will evaluate the efficiency of the measures taken by law enforcement agencies in European countries to counter those threats.
Three Main Tactics
By reviewing
the terrorist attacks inspired by ISIS and al-Qaeda in Europe, or incited
through their media outlets, one could discern three major tactics:
1- Ramming tactics: The use
of vehicle-ramming as a terrorism technique is a relatively recent innovation.
ISIS spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani began endorsing vehicle-ramming in 2014.
The
third edition of ISIS’ Rumiyah magazine, published in 2016, included an article
titled "Just Terror Tactics" that outlined the features of ideal
vehicles to use in terror assaults. It further presented an extensive analysis
regarding the choice of targets.
Moreover,
last month, ISIS affiliates in Turkey released the “Lone Wolf Handbook”, a
manual of 60 pages that explains the most efficient ways to make a bomb or
drive a truck into pedestrians. [2]
Western countries started to feel the negative impacts of this tactic. In the US, the Transportation Security Administration report on threat of vehicle ramming attacks, notes that from 2014 through 2017, 17 ramming attacks occurred worldwide, resulting in 173 fatalities and 667 injuries.[3]
2- Stabbing Tactics: Rumiyah magazine provided further tips for knife attacks. It stated that "Vehicles are like knives, as they are extremely easy to acquire."[4] Stabbing, as a terrorist tactic, is sometimes used as a tactic alone, similar to the last attack occurred in Southern Finland, or February 2017 attack in south west France. In other situations stabbing is used along with other tactics, like ramming, as evident in Westminster attack on March 22, 2017, and June 2017 London Bridge attack.
3-
Train
derail: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in its
17th edition of its “Inspire magazine” called upon its
supporters to strike trains in the US and Europe. The magazine provided its readers
with an 18-page guide for building a train derailment device. Previously, in
2013, Canadian authorities arrested two terrorists affiliated to al-Qaeda, who
were plotting to derail trains traveling between Toronto and New York City.
[5]
Possible Causes
The main
causes that terrorist group use unsophisticated techniques could be attributed
to the following reasons:
1. Evading Security measures: Vehicle-ramming
or stabbing attacks are comparatively easy to plan and carry out without
detection. Terrorist organization are directing their sympathizers to utilize
tactics that make it extremely difficult for the police to trace and prevent the
attack before it is carried on. AQAP, for instance, has put step by step guide
in order to construct a metal derail device. AQAP stated that it will keep the
assailant “away from using any electronic tools or tools that are specially
used in construction … to hide your tracks from forensics after the operation."[6]
On the
other hand, other forms of attacks, such as bombings, require a certain level
of expertise. Without such level of expertise and knowledge the bomb may end up
exploding, as evident in Spain attack, as the perpetrators originally planned
to use explosive devices, but their plans were foiled after bomb-making materials
accidentally blew up their house in Alcanar. [7] In
addition, it is more risky, as bombs’ components need to be purchased in large
amounts from available commercial materials, [8] which could put the perpetrator under the police radar.
Furthermore, ISIS directed attacks in Europe, as in Paris attack in November 2015, takes months of preparation and planning, which increase the risk of being exposed by law enforcement agencies.
2. Increasing the Economic cost: The
immediate economic costs of terrorism are the destruction of life and property.
The 2016 truck attack in Nice, for instance, killed 86 people and injured
hundreds. [9] Moreover, there are indirect economic cost for countries that depend heavily on
tourism, as those states suffer significant economic losses from the
persistence of terrorism. Various statest such as Egypt, Italy, Kenya and
Turkey have suffered declines in tourism-related spending and foreign direct
investment as a result of terrorism. [10]
This
economic dimension is evident in ISIS calculations, as the last attack targeted
Barcelona’s famous Las Ramblas avenue, one of the most important tourist
attraction, which is filled with tourist attractions including the city's famed
opera house and a Baroque palace. [11]
Moreover,
by targeting a touristic area, ISIS could inflict losses for increasing number
of countries, as among the dead and injured are people with different
nationalities from 34 countries including France, Pakistan, Spain, the
Netherlands, China, Venezuela, Mauritania, Australia, Britain and the United
States. [12] This will assist ISIS in its propaganda, and urge other sympathizers to
continue carrying on other attacks.
There is an additional economic cost that stems from imposing counterterrorism measures. According to Inspire, AQAP magazine, USD 4,200 was spent on an attempt to blow up cargo planes in 2010 forced the West to spend billions of dollars on additional security measures. This made the operation effective, even though no one was killed and the plot was thwarted, according to AQAP. Likewise, in AQAP’s Train derailments article stated that they will “continue to bleed the American economy [with] more losses.” [13]
3. Defying Europe’s security measures: The
United Kingdom was considered to be one of the safest countries, until ISIS stormed
UK with three subsequent attacks in the first half of 2017. In addition, ISIS
last attacks targeted Spain, which managed over the past decade to avoid
terrorist atrocities.
Madrid employed a counter-terrorism strategy that is different from other states including France, Britain, Germany and Belgium. Since 2015, the country’s police and intelligence services have managed to intervene at the earliest possible moment, arresting suspects even before they plot a possible terrorist assault. For example, jihadi suspects are often convicted for crimes such as sharing terrorist propaganda online. [14] Despite these measures, Spain did not manage to thwart the last terrorist attack.
4. Emphasizing its position in Jihadi landscape: The recent attacks reveal ISIS dedication to carry on attacks in the west, which could be attributed in part to their willingness to prove they are still effective despite the territorial losses. [15] They further aim to particularly target the European countries (including Spain), which are part of the international coalition fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq. [16] It should be taken in consideration that all terrorist attacks that targeted Europe, were carried on by ISIS rather than Al Qaeda, despite the latter’s repeated calls to its sympathizers to carry on attacks in the west.
No Easy Solution
In an
attempt to stop unsophisticated attacks, particularly ramming attacks, many
European countries have resorted to the following measures:
1-
Increasing
the number of armed street patrols to deal with the threat, and police are now
well versed in how to respond to such incidents. [17]
2-
Enhancing
Intelligence sharing among European countries on potential terrorists and
radicalized individuals.
3-
Introducing
new security measures on roads: such as metal or concrete barriers – in a bid
to protect pedestrians and crowds. However, experts warn that no country can
protect all of its possible civilian targets. [18]
4-
Searching
for technological solutions, like manufacturing vehicles with artificial
intelligence in them so that they will refuse to crash and proceed when there
is a human being in front of them. It is expected that this kind of technology would
be widely available in the next decade. [19] However, it should not be ignored that this will take a long time to be
universally applied, as well as, it will be a costly measure.
It is
worth mentioning that the aforementioned measures are mainly directed to decrease
the impact of the unsophisticated terrorist attacks, not to prevent its occurrence,
as there are no measures could be taken that protect civilians completely.
Finally,
ISIS affiliated lone wolves, and autonomous cells will continue to carry on
attacks in Europe, and this raise the question about whether ISIS is involved
in the operational planning of these attacks or it merely inspires the
attackers through social media. Moreover, such attacks confirm that Europe faces
a real challenge represented in the formation of radicalized incubator that
needs societal policies, in addition to security measures to better face the
rising threat.
[1]) Angela Dewan, Finland attack: 2 killed in
Turku stabbing spree, CNN, August 18, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/1s5mZu
[2]) Ahmet S. Yayla, ISIS Airmail: The Bomb
Shipped From Turkey to Australia, Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2017,
accessible at: https://goo.gl/pkdqYn
[3]) TSA warns against
vehicle-ramming attacks, abc news radio, May 4, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/AXYLwc
[4]) Pamela Engel, ISIS and Al Qaeda have specifically
called for the type of attack that just happened in London, Business Insider,
March 22, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/th4LCz
[5]) Thomas Joscelyn, AQAP publishes guide for
derailing trains in the US, Europe, Long War Journal, August 13, 2017,
accessible at: https://goo.gl/SA9rRD
[6]) Thomas Joscelyn, op.cit.
[7]) Angela Dewan and Kara Fox, Spain
attacks: What we know so far, CNN, August 18, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/rNqLHK
[8]) Rob Stein, The Technical Perspective:
Ingredients for a Bomb Are Not Hard to Find, Washington post, August 11, 2oo6,
accessible at: https://goo.gl/9GLUhL
[9]) How and why vehicle ramming became the attack
of choice for terrorists, The Conversation, March 29, 2017, accessible at:
https://goo.gl/OO0uQG
[10]) David Gold, Some Economic Considerations in
the U.S. War on Terrorism, The Quarterly Journal, VOL. III, NO. 1, March 2004, p.
2.
[11]) Joseph Wilson And Alan Clendenning, Las
Ramblas: A top Barcelona site for tourists to stroll, abc news, Aug 17, 2017,
accessible at: https://goo.gl/ua4wGt
[12]) Moussa Oukabir, 17, confirmed as one of five
attackers killed in Cambrils – as it happened, The Guardian, August 19, 2017,
accessible at: https://goo.gl/LNyLkf
[13]) Thomas Joscelyn, op.cit.
[14]) Tobias Buck, Barcelona terrorism casts
spotlight on Spain’s policy of early intervention, Financial Times, August 19,
2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/MrbRPo
[15]) Car ramming attacks: Cheap, deadly and hard
to prevent, France 24, August 18, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/hmYBDQ
[16]) Bethan McKernan, Isis supporters celebrate
Barcelona attack after the terror group claim responsibility, The Independent, August
18, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/jBaUGK
[17]) Car ramming attacks: Cheap, deadly and hard
to prevent, op.cit.
[18]) Ibid.
[19]) Danielle Le Messurier, Lifesaving technology
to prevent vehicle ramming terror attacks closer than we think, Herald Sun, August
18, 2017, accessible at: https://goo.gl/QXPjCK