Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.  

International community in disarray 

Uncertainty hovers over the way forward for actors in Libya. From major powers to regional players, strategies and tactics in the war-burdened country vary greatly. Some of the dynamics could be outlined as follows: 

1. American pressure: 

The US has exerted much pressure on Libyan factions to finalise the new constitution and make way for a new election. US Ambassador to Libya, Richard B. Norland, and US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, have held intensive meetings with Libyan political leaders to find a way out of the current impasse. 

Washington, moreover, is stern on keeping the status quo until new parliamentarian elections are held. Meaning, the US does not mind having two rival governments looking after elections in their respective regions. But the US would not want the situation to escalate into armed conflict, a concern that has been loudly voiced by Ambassador Norland. 

2. Russia’s clout continues: 

The war in Ukraine hasn’t stopped Russia from asserting its presence in Libya. Recently, more than 5000 Wagner combatant returned to Libya which is slowly becoming a theatre for Russia-US confrontation. The ongoing hostility between the two major powers was clearly visible after Russian troops shot down the US drone NQ-9 Reaper which had been flying near a General Official Leadership basecamp in eastern Libya. Drones like the shot down Reaper often make scouting flights to monitor Wagner activities in across the country. 

It seems Moscow wanted to send a message: Washington must be kept away from Russian strongholds. And as Russia escalate its confrontation of the West it works tirelessly to cement its position in Libya, a gateway to Africa’s Sahel. 

3. EU’s unconcerted diplomacy: 

With each of the European powers dealing with Libya individually, often their efforts have come at cross purposes and even conflicted, especially between France and Italy. 

The conflict in Ukraine at Europe’s gates, and its deeply concerning consequences for the continent, has been a major distraction for European powers. France and Italy, nonetheless, still play key roles in Libya. On one hand, Roma wants to secure bigger shares of Libya’s oil. Giuseppe Buccino, Italy’s ambassador to Libya, met with Interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah in hopes to secure more oil for his nation. On the other hand, France wants to assert its presence in Libya through empowering Fathi Bashagha, whose latest and failed attempt to barge into Tripoli was backed by, and coordinated with, Paris. 

The UK, moreover, has shown support to the al-Dbeibah’s government. But with a new British prime minister comes a new policy on Libya, especially as the UK Prime Minister’s campaign manager, Mark Fullbrook, through his consultancy (Fullbrook Strategies) had tried to persuade former PM Boris Johnson to support the Bashagha government. 

4. A more active role by the UN: 

Finally, after 9 months of deliberations, the UN appointed a new special envoy to Libya, Senegal’s Abdullah Baytli. His appointment came amid demands by African countries, China, and Russia; and Baytli enjoys France’s support, too, given his diplomatic engagement with Paris during his post as deputy envoy of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali in 2013. The new envoy’s appointment could restart the UN’s efforts in Libya. 

Growing regional involvement

Neighbouring countries have intensified their involvement in Libya. Movements by key regional players could be outlined as follows: 

1. Turkey: 

Up until a few months, Ankara had maintained a level of neutrality to the al-Dbeibah-Bashagha rivalry. On September 2nd, following armed clashes, Ankara hosted separate meetings with Libyan opponents at Turkey’s intelligence headquarters. 

Ankara’s approach remains open to all factions, informed by its interests, and prioritising de-escalation and political negotiations over armed conflict. Ankara rejects any forceful attempts to change the status quo, as was the case when Turkey supplied al-Dbeibah with anti-tanks drones to counter Bashagha’s entry of Tripoli. 

2. Egypt: 

Reaching an agreement on a new constitution remains a priority for Cairo, where Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, met with Khalid al-Mishri, Chairman of the High Council of State, on the heels of intensive meetings in Ankara. Egypt seeks to broker an agreement on a new constitution while asserting its support to the Bashagha government. Egypt official stance on government legitimacy was clearly demonstrated when Egyptian representatives withdrew from Arab League preliminary meetings in protest over Najla el-Mangoush, Foreign Minister in the al-Dbeibah’s government, representing Libya. 

3. Algeria-Morocco rivalry: 

The situation in Libya has been high on Algeria’s foreign policy agenda. Seeking to strengthen its ties with Tripoli, Algeria received al-Dbeibah and his government Foreign Minister el-Mangoush last April. More recently, Algeria re-established diplomatic ties and exchanged ambassadors after cutting relations with Libya in 2014. The latter appointed a new Ambassador to Algeria, Saleh Hamma Mohamed Bakda, who resumes Libya’s mission in Algeria since it was withdrawn in 2018. 

Algeria is the only state which has recognised the al-Dbeibah government. The aim is to strengthen its economic ties in western Libya, paving the way for the reopening of borders, including key ports which substantially would drive trade between the two neighbours. Talks continue between the two countries to revive air and sea routes as well.  

Having been supportive of the Bashagha government, Tunisia recently has been with Algeria, whose foreign policy makers have been working to forge a regional bloc that is independent to other neighbouring states, including Egypt, with whom Algeria has seen rift lately. 

The impact on Libya

The scene is deeply complex in Libya and potentially could lead to two scenarios, outlined as follows: 

1. Supporting a new constitution: 

Pressure and mediation by the US and foreign actors might compel Libyan factions to negotiating a practicable constitution rule upon which new elections may be held. This may be the most likely scenario given the current circumstances. 

2. Forging and new roadmap: 

Other reports, however, indicate that the ongoing arrangements taking place between local and regional actors may forge a new pathway for Libya’s politics. As revealed by the US ambassador, the new UN envoy might be able to formulate a roadmap that could help overcome the ongoing impasse. 

We may conclude that Libya’s political scene has become inclined to regional and international influence. With a shared desire to preventing Libya from falling into another civil war, Libyan factions are left but with the option to reach an agreement on a constitutional rule that would enable the running of new elections. Yet reaching an agreement between Libyan factions on a new constitution is proving hard, thus leaving the country with two rival governments, for the foreseeable future.