On February 6 2023, Syria and Turkey were hit by a severe 7.8 degrees earthquake, resulting in the deaths of thousands and the total destruction of thousands of buildings in the two countries. In particular, according to preliminary assessments, the two countries suffered extensive damage to the central infrastructure in southeastern Turkey, such as the port of Iskenderun and some power plants that were hit by the crack.
Against this background, the analysis presented in this paper looks at the recovery stages of electricity systems following earthquakes, floods, and other natural disasters and the role of preventative measures and policies in mitigating their risks to vital facilities, including power plants and distribution networks.
Disaster Damage
Extreme natural disasters usually cause structural damage to infrastructure, destroying roads, ports and water stations, as well as power plants, transmission and distribution subsystems, disrupting essential services such as electricity and water in areas affected by earthquakes and floods.
The interruption of essential services in areas exposed to natural disasters negatively affects all economic and productive activities. For example, power outages caused by such disasters result in financial losses in the US of between $20 billion and $55 billion a year, according to the latest estimates by the Department of Energy.
Governments usually rehabilitate damaged electricity networks quickly, but recovery may be prolonged in some cases, especially if the level of damage to stations and distribution lines or other infrastructure such as roads or ports is poor is severe, posing logistical difficulties for reconstruction or maintenance. The recovery time, which may take months, or sometimes even years, is then determined by the level of damage to the electricity structure, the conditions of other infrastructure, and various other factors. Governments may also prioritise the repair of electricity grids in central urban areas, or areas with high contribution to the economy, at the expense of periphery or marginal areas, making the latter vulnerable to deprivation of electricity services for more extended periods.
On the other hand, the process of allocating ownership of electricity utilities determines how to distribute the financial burdens to rehabilitate the electricity sector after natural disasters. In most developing countries, electricity utilities – whether in production, transport or distribution stages – are owned by the government responsible for managing and repairing electricity infrastructure. While in many developed countries, ownership of the infrastructure for the production, transmission and distribution of electricity is shared between the public and private sectors, meaning the cost of rehabilitating the electricity sector will not be borne by the government alone.
Stages of Recovery
In general, governments and other stakeholders respond to electricity shortage crises in areas prone to natural disasters through two main phases, which are:
1. Relief phase:
The flexibility of electricity systems after natural disasters is demonstrated not through the speed of repairing electrical networks after they are damaged but by providing electricity quickly through alternative sources, thus reducing the duration of power outages. Standalone electricity solutions or off-grid systems are one of the primary options for governments to provide electricity to individuals and productive activities following earthquakes and floods. Areas affected by natural disasters are supplied with diesel generators or fuel oil to meet their energy needs for lighting, cooking, or heating.
Off-grid solar systems are another solution to fill electricity shortages. For example, following the 2015 earthquake in the Nepalese capital of Katmandu, civil society organisations provided hospitals, schools, and other basic facilities with solar panels and electricity storage batteries. Solar power was deployed for the first time ever in relief operations that followed repeated hurricanes in 1988 in both Puerto Rico and the southeastern United States.
Off-grid systems or solutions are most suitable for providing electricity in areas affected by natural disasters, for they are easy to install and operate under an abridged schedule. Turkish authorities, in partnership with the private sector, are expected to finally supply earthquake-affected areas in the southeast of the country with about 12,000 solar panels to meet urgent electricity needs. However, it is common for governments to risk installing solar systems at a faster pace than necessary in anticipation of regions being subjected to aftershocks following an earthquake, which may hamper efforts to restore electricity quickly.
Moreover, importing is another solution to provide electricity quickly after natural disasters. For example, after the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in August 1999, Ankara imported electricity from Bulgaria, Georgia, and Iran to raise electricity generation capacities throughout the country, where several regional areas relied on Kocaeli plants for electricity.
2. Rehabilitation phase:
The speed of rehabilitation of electricity networks affected by natural disasters depends on several determinants: the first of which is related to the extent to which the provision of the necessary funds for the rehabilitation of the electrical structure, whether it is self-government funding or the mobilisation of funds from the private sector or international bodies, which are usually keen to provide financial assistance to countries affected by natural. The second of these determinants relate to the management of supply chains of the electricity sector, in terms of the provision of spare parts and equipment, in addition to the technology of operating generating stations and others. The speed of providing technical support means providing electricity to areas affected by earthquakes or floods faster, especially if damage to the electrical structure is limited.
The third determinant relates to the structure of participants in the rehabilitation of the electricity sector, as the participation of independent electricity producers, along with government entities, increases the flexibility of electricity systems after natural disasters, and closes the electricity deficit faster for domestic users and industrial customers. For instance, following the 1999 Qiqi earthquake in Taiwan, two independent producers were relied upon to restore the electricity supply in the industrial zone (Hsinchu Science Park). Nepal has also hired the British company Renovagen, which specialises in clean technology, to transport solar panels to mountainous areas via Rabid Roll technology. This manufacturer produces carpet-like solar panels, making them easier to transport across heights.
The bottom line here is that the recovery of the electricity sector following natural disasters, like other infrastructure, depends on multiple determinants: financial, technological, logistical, and others. Once these determinants are met, the rehabilitation of the electrical grid becomes faster and vice versa, of course.
Preventative Policies
However, states cannot avoid the consequences of natural disasters on infrastructure, including electricity grids. Still, they can reduce or even limit the amount of expected damage whenever they have an emergency preparedness plan and can contribute to shortening recovery time.
According to the World Bank and other international institutions, a ‘Natural Disaster Preparedness Plan’ covers several levels of action, which are as follows:
1. Infrastructure, including periodic assessments on the durability of electricity facilities, grid modernisation, and seismic retrofit of concrete facilities (i.e., making them more earthquake resistant) by modifying building techniques or building materials.
2. Sources of electricity generation through the diversification of generation sources and the construction of backup systems for emergency electricity generation. For example, following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the Japanese government launched the “National Resilience” program, which funds the reconstruction of cities affected by natural disasters. The program’s objectives include building backup capacity for electricity in cities in the event of another natural disaster. The Japanese city of Higashi Matsushima has benefited from government funding by making decentralised electricity generation facilities via renewables to meet a quarter of its electricity needs locally, without relying on the national grid.
3. Approving legislation to ensure the safety of essential buildings and facilities, such as building codes for determining building safety requirements, in addition to mandatory insurance laws aimed at compensating facilities affected by natural disasters.
4. Good operation and maintenance practices, which are one of vital aspects of ensuring the safety of electricity facilities.
The application of previous preventive measures often requires the allocation of big budgets and an accurate estimation of costs and returns. Studies indicate that the physical strengthening of electricity networks is a valuable step which has helped many countries reduce the losses of the electricity sector after natural disasters. For example, preventative investment in New Zealand’s electrical infrastructure has yielded positive results. Spending $6 million to modernise electricity infrastructure – before the 2011 earthquake – led to a $30-$50 million reduction in asset replacement costs.
In conclusion, countries cannot avoid the consequences of natural disasters on the electricity sector. They should be ready and must take the necessary preventative measures to enhance the resilience of electricity networks after natural disasters. This requires electricity operators, above all, to view natural disasters as a fundamental variable - not an emergency - that may affect their future business models and investments.
