Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan found a favorable opportunity in the withdrawal of United States troops as well as the NATO from Afghanistan to introduce himself as the protector of Kabul International Airport. The airport is the main gateway for departing and arriving foreign diplomats, as well as for incoming humanitarian and relief aid for Kabul. With this in mind, Erdogan saw the NATO summit held recently in Brussels, and his meeting on the sidelines with U.S. President Joe Biden, as an important opportunity to present his proposal for Afghanistan. The proposal was welcomed by the US who was quick to send a military delegation to Ankara over the past days.  The Turkish ministry of defense on June 26  announced that it held talks with the US delegation on how to ensure undisrupted operation of the hamid Karazai International Airport in Kabul. It further confirmed that the two sides agreed on holding further talks on the issue.

Remarkably, the timing of Turkey’s offer to secure Kabul Airport was marked by two significant considerations. The first is the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is set to be completed by September  11 2021, marking two decades of the US invasion of Afghanistan and the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The second is that the Taliban are making significant advances on the field in Afghanistan, where reports note that the movement has overtaken 70 percent of the country’s territory. The development came amid warnings that the Afghan government would collapse if the Taliban continue to make progress.

Diverse Motives

Turkey’s offer to have a military presence in Afghanistan and secure Kabul airport, after the departure of US and NATO troops, has raised several questions, namely about the motives driving Turkey, such as:

1-   Improving Relations with Washington:  the Turkish president wants to use the offer to secure Kabul airport to improve relations with the US President Joe Biden's administration. In this regard, President Erdogan is looking forward to concessions made by Washington about two matters that have special importance for Turkey. First, Ankara seeks to have Washington allow it to keep the Russian-made S-400 defense missile system, after the US categorical rejection.  The second is to have the US Administration halt its support to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is considered by Turkey as a threat to its national security. In this sense, Turkey’s offer to secure Kabul Airport is the cost of cozying up to the US Administration.

2-   Affirming Turkey’s Role in the NATO: Ankara wants to send across a message to the West that Turkey continues to be a state that belongs to the NATO, and that its rapprochement with Russia is only a tactical move. Additionally, Erdogan, through his messages wants to reassure the NATO that Turkey continues to be a spearhead for the difficult roles that the military alliance plays in difficult regions, and that only Ankara can find a solution to the Afghan dilemma that the NATO failed to solve in two decades despite all the military and diplomatic efforts that were made.

3-  Bolstering Turkey’s Regional Influence: Ankara considers its offer to secure Kabul airport as a smart strategy to bolster Turkey’s overseas influence, just as it did in countries such as Syria, Iraq, Libya and Azerbaijan. Through this tactic, Erdogan aims to achieve the main goal of having Turkey recognized as a major regional power, and his wild ambitions as feasible. He also aims to mobilize the Turkish people to support his agendas, which is especially important for his ruling party, the AK Party, whose popularity is dropping, according to polls.

Erdogan’s Plans

Evidently, Erdogan’s projection for the presence of Turkish troops in Afghanistan are based on his motives and the bets he places on several factors namely:

1-  Using Religious and Historical Consideration: Erdogan bets on the fact that Turkey is a muslim state that has histotical and cultural relations with the Afghan people. It should be taken into consideration that Erdogan is good at using this factor in building relations with the Arab and Muslim countries.

2-   Reliance on Qatar: to carry out his plan, the Turkish president relies on Qatar, which enjoys good relations with Afghan Taliban. The aim is to secure the Taliban’s approval of a future Turkish role in drawing the Afghan political landscape following the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.

3- Capitalizing on Pakistan’s Role: Erdogan also bets on involving Pakistan, Afghanistan’s neighbor, which is well-experienced in the Afghan affairs, in the mission to secure Kabul airport, especially in light of the good relations between Ankara and Islamabad.

4-  Securing Financial and Logistic Support: Erdogan believes that the implementation of the proposed mission in Afghanistan requires that the NATO provide financial, military and intelligence support to the Turkish troops to enable them to secure Kabul airport. In this regard, and as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan put it, President Biden, during his meeting with President Erdogan in Brussels on the margins of the NATO summit held on June 14, “committed that that support would be forthcoming.”

Existing Challenges

In light of these bets, the question that begs itself: Can Turkey’s projection about its role in Afghanistan be accurate? A simple reading of the situation in Afghanistan, including the regional and international entanglements, and the field complexities on the ground, would reveal the many risks involved in the Afghan dilemma. Among these risks, the following stand out:

1-  Taliba’s Rejection of Foreign Presence: intoxicated by the thrill of victory, the Taliban rejected any Turkish or foreign role after the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. Taliban warned that foreign troops should not hope for keeping a military presence in Afghanistan. The movement stressed that the responsibility for security of airports and embassies will rest upon the Afghans. This means that a military stand-off between the Turkish troops and Taliban, or other Afghan parties, is potential and even likely.

2-    Threats Posed by Terrorist Organizations: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan opens the door for extremist and hardline groups, namely Taliban, to rise. Al-Qaeda may also have a comeback, and ISIS and other terrorist organizations may increase their activity. Therefore, there are strong doubts that Turkey’s mission would succeed where the NATO failed.

3-   NATO’s Ambiguous Position: although the NATO welcomed Turkey’s offer to have a military presence in Afghanistan, there are serious connotations. To date, the NATO has not announced its preparedness to fund, or provide air cover for the Turkish troops that will be responsible for securing Kabul airport. Additionally, the NATO rejects Pakistan’s involvement in this mission.

4-  Internal Opposition in Turkey: The Turkish opposition, and even some from the ruling AK Party, reject the offer to have Turkish troops carrying out the mission of securing Kabul airport, sending new Turkish troops to Afghanistan, and even keeping the Turkish troops deployed there after the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Expected Risks

There is no doubt that if Turkey’s offer of having military presence in Afghanistan, after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is completed, it will be an easy one. It is even safe to say that it will be more of an adventure that will open the door for bloody stand-offs, and could even spark new conflicts in a country already riddled with conflicts and overlapping regional calculations. That is, inside Afghanistan, Turkey risks a stand-off with Taliban that can result in casualties and losses sustained by the Turkish troops. This would negatively impact the Erdogan regime’s stance  inside Turkey, especially in light of the opposition’s rejection of having this mission carried out by the AK Party-led government.

Additionally, the Taliban’s seizure of power in Afghanistan means that the Turkish government will have to deal with an extremist group that insists on enforcing Islamic Sharia Law, once it comes to power. This would put Ankara in a dilemma: it will either have to deal with this extremism, or seek to honor its commitment to the NATO. Furthermore, the issue of the Afghan refugee will always be an issue in Turkey, which hosts about half a million of them on its territory (Afghans represent the second largest refugee community in Turkey after the Syrians). On top of that, the risk of Turkey becoming a ​gateway for Afghan refugees heading to Europe continues to exist.

On the international level, Turkey’s offer to have a military presence in Afghanistan is a highly sensitive issue for Iran, Russia and China, especially because this offer comes as part of Ankara’s quest for expanding its regional influence in a country considered by these three states as part of their geo-political interests. This can possibly explain why Zamir Kabulov, Russia's special envoy to Afghanistan, was quick to state, on June 18, that “Turkey’s proposed plans run counter to the US-Taliban agreement.” In this regard, the offer, for Moscow, exceeds Turkey’s role in Afghanistan to also include Azerbaijan, Ukraine and other regions that are vital for both countries. This role has caused friction between Moscow and Ankara, especially after Turkey’s announcement, following the signing of the Shusha Declaration on June 15, that it is planning to build a military base in the Central Asian country, which Russia evidently rejects.

The same goes for Iran, Afghanistan’s important neighbor. The reason is that Turkey’s new role in Afghanistan can spark competition with Iran on Afghanistan’s territory amid sectarian and political divisions and the geographical impact on the economic interests of both Turkey and Iran. Additionally, China is highly sensitive towards any movements that have to do with the west in Afghanistan, especially amid an escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington.

In conclusion, it can possibly be said that Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, wants to use his offer to his US counterpart Joe Biden about securing Kabul airport, to achieve several goals at once, and as a bargaining chip with the great powers to strengthen Turkey’s role and influence and strike deals. But the reality is that Erdogan’s projections might not be accurate, and this is what threatens to turn Afghanistan into a quagmire for Turkish troops deployed in that country.