Claudia Sheinbaum made history by winning Mexico's presidential election and becoming the first woman and the first Jewish person to hold this office in the country's history. In a historic landslide win, the left-leaning climate scientist secured the highest percentage of support in Mexican electoral history, with 59.3% of the votes. Her main rival, businesswoman Xóchitl Gálvez, the conservative opposition coalition's candidate, secured 27.9% of the ballot. , Independent candidate Jorge Álvarez Máynez finished third with 10.4% of the votes. This result was bolstered by a comfortable win for the ruling party and its allies in both houses of the legislative elections and significant victories in the municipal elections.
Internal Challenges
Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to face several internal challenges and issues, the most prominent of which are outlined below:
1. Improving the economic situation:
Sheinbaum is taking office while Mexico is still experiencing economic decline. In late May 2024, the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography announced a decrease in Mexico's economic growth rate for the first quarter of the current year. Additionally, the budget deficit has risen from 4.3% in previous years to 5.9% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024, coinciding with a 4.3% depreciation of the Mexican peso, which dropped to 17.7 against the US dollar immediately after Sheinbaum's victory. The stock market also closed down 6.01%.
Sheinbaum will also need to address the structural weaknesses of Mexico's state-owned energy company, Pemex, the most indebted oil company in the world, which has become a burden on public finances. Whether Sheinbaumadheres to current policies or seeks to maximize the country's oil and gas potential will dictate the future of Pemex.
Although Sheinbaum promised in her post-election speech to continue the policies of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador(AMLO), which include republican austerity and maintaining financial discipline, and respecting the independence of the Bank of Mexico (Mexico's central bank), the recent elections caused a market shock. The ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), to which Sheinbaum and her predecessor belong, along with their coalition partners, seem poised for a supermajority in Congress, which would make constitutional changes easier and reduce checks and balances between political forces.
2. Mitigating social pressures:
The new administration needs to boost the country's economic growth to help meet urgent social needs, such as the rising cost of pensions. In 2019, outgoing President Obrador introduced a comprehensive pension payment for citizens over 65, now valued at 6,000 pesos ($361) every two months. This and other social programs were key to his 55% approval rating. Moreover, Obrador doubled the minimum wage over six years, collectively reducing the poverty rate by more than 7%, according to the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL), the country's poverty analysis agency.
Another challenge for the incoming government is health care. According to the 2022 poverty measurement by CONEVAL, 50.4 million Mexicans were unable to access health services that year. Between 2020 and 2022, the number of people without medical care increased to 14.7 million, with 50 million people still lacking access to any health services last year.
In education, the biggest challenge, according to experts, is to provide greater opportunities for all students, especially in middle and high school, and to combat school dropout rates.
3. Addressing security issues:
Many analysts view security as the most pressing challenge for the new president due to high violence rates. Mexico records about 30,000 homicides annually, approximately 80 per day, with 6 of the 32 states accounting for nearly half of the murders.
The danger posed by organized crime and drug cartels also looms large, having made the recent elections the deadliest in the country's history. From June 2023 to June 1, 2024, 37 candidates or aspirants were killed—surpassing a toll of 24 candidates killed during the 2018 election.
In this context, some feminist groups argue that Sheinbaum will struggle to combat femicides effectively. According to the National Observatory of Femicide, over 1,500 women are killed annually in Mexico because of their gender, with the vast majority of perpetrators escaping justice. Critics also point to the large number of missing women in Mexico City and nationwide who are not included in homicide statistics, questioning whether Sheinbaum can do more to address these issues.
4. The expanded role of the Mexican military:
Several analyses suggest that Sheinbaum will have to deal with the expanded role of the Mexican military. The last three six-year presidential terms have been marked by the deployment of armed forces to perform police duties, particularly under outgoing President López Obrador. Mexico has seen an increasing militarization of civil duties both within and outside the security sector. Today, the armed forces are not only responsible for police tasks but also for enforcing immigration laws, managing ports and customs, constructing tourism and major infrastructure projects, and running airports and businesses, among other roles.
Thus, the state has increasingly concentrated power and funding on military institutions known for their opacity, lack of sufficient civilian oversight, and history of serious human rights abuses. This distorts civil-military relations and poses risks to human rights, both now and in the future. Therefore, it is essential for Sheinbaum to move towards demilitarization and prioritize strengthening civilian institutions.
Foreign Issues
The new Mexican president will face several challenges in managing the country's foreign relations, as outlined below:
1. Managing the relationship with Washington:
With the US presidential election approaching in November, Sheinbaum will need to manage the sensitive and complex bilateral relationship with the United States, especially regarding contentious issues such as drug trafficking and cross-border migration. Both candidates, Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican ex-President Donald Trump visited the U.S.-Mexico border in early March 2024. Both candidates blamed each other for the illegal crossing of the southern border by hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants, highlighting Mexico's importance in the presidential race.
For Mexicans, the US elections are significant because Trump previously escalated confrontations with López Obrador over closing the border to stop illegal immigration. Conversely, Biden sought to address the situation through targeted programs.
Another challenge for Sheinbaum in 2026 will be renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) with a possible second Trump administration, though observers believe Biden would also be stricter with Mexico if re-elected.
Some analysts believe López Obrador followed a policy of bartering with both Trump and Biden, a strategy likely to be continued by Sheinbaum, who has been cautious about endorsing either candidate in the US elections. Mexico's new president told foreign journalists in mid-May that Mexico's relations with the US will be stable, irrespective of which candidate wins the race.
This view is also supported by the vast trade between Mexico and the US Last year, Mexico officially replaced China as the US's largest bilateral trading partner, with exchanges between the neighboring countries nearing USD 900 billion and foreign direct investment rising to USD 36 billion.
2. Improving relations with neighboring countries:
Analysts indicate that Sheinbaum has an opportunity to positively reset relations with Mexico's southern neighbors following recent tensions. In April 2024, Mexico severed ties with Ecuador after Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who had sought political asylum in the embassy. Mending ties can be achieved through various areas, including climate change, regional security, and migration.
Sheinbaum's policies on energy and environmental sustainability, as well as economic integration, are expected to significantly impact the region's future, thereby redefining Mexico's role in Central America and fostering a more stable and prosperous area. Enhancing and increasing intelligence sharing between Mexico and Central American countries could also help combat organized crime and violence, which are key drivers of migration.
3. Balancing relations with China:
Analysts suggest that Sheinbaum will likely continue López Obrador's friendly policy towards China and may also seek to enhance cooperation with the Asian giant in the digital economy and green energy sectors. Mexico has abundant lithium resources and needs a green transition in the oil and petrochemical sectors, thus creating opportunities for collaboration in mineral resource development and energy transition.
Furthermore, China's high-speed rail technology and railway construction capabilities are internationally renowned, and Mexico has a strong demand for railway infrastructure development. Chinese companies would, therefore, be well-positioned to increase investment in this sector and participate in the construction of railway projects in Mexico.
However, some analysts argue that with the Biden administration announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles in May, Mexico might also face US pressure regarding potential cooperation with China in this industry. Nonetheless, some believe that Sheinbaum's adoption of a balanced policy would not only affirm Mexico's independent stance on the international stage but also provide more opportunities for economic development and international cooperation with other key powers, including China, Brazil, and the European Union.
4. Sheinbaum's position on the Palestinian issue:
Sheinbaum declared her position regarding the Palestinian issue during the Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip following the October 7 attack. She condemned attacks on civilians and emphasized the need to recognize a two-state solution, urging the United Nations to work towards delineating the borders between the Palestinian and Israeli states through international treaties.
However, Sheinbaum remained silent when President López Obrador publicly accused Israel of committing an ongoing genocide in Gaza and sought to support South Africa's lawsuit against Israel in the International Court of Justice. This led observers to believe her stance would not differ significantly from her predecessor's, as both maintained neutrality. Sheinbaum's stance differed, however, due to the sensitivity of her identity and her new responsibilities.
In conclusion, Sheinbaum will need to assemble her governing team and action plans, manage the pressure for constitutional reforms, and work on establishing her presidential image that is distinct from that of her predecessor and mentor, AMLO, whose high popularity empowers him to maintain significant influence in the political arena.
