For the past decade, Arab states have been gradually shifting their foreign policy and strategic objectives towards the East. This reorientation aims to balance their external relations with new global powers like China, as well as emerging economies such as India and Russia. These efforts have had a significant impact on the dynamics of the Middle East. In particular, the deepening strategic partnerships with the East, especially China, have been a game changer in reshaping the regional arrangements in the Middle East.
On May 30th, China and the countries of the Middle East celebrated the twentieth anniversary of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF), which was established in 2004 (Huaxia, 2024). Beijing hosted Arab leaders and ministers to review the current state of China-Arab cooperation and redefine policy priorities in light of the growing regional and global crises, as well as changing geopolitical realities. Representatives from 22 Arab states, including presidential and ministerial officials, attended the forum with the aim of re-architecting regional ties with China in a more reflective manner.
China's Growing Prioritization in Arab Foreign Policymaking
The 2024 edition of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) signifies a shared commitment to redefining long-term cooperation. This edition highlights China's increasing importance as a partner in Middle Eastern foreign policymaking. In addition to the comprehensive strategic partnerships established between China and 14 Arab countries (Global Times, 2024), Arab leaders have actively involved China in Middle Eastern geopolitics, within the context of Great Power - Middle Power relations. Simultaneously, China has demonstrated a political willingness to understand and contribute to resolving regional crises in the Middle East. This recent shift in China's foreign policy towards the Arab region marks a departure from its long-standing non-intervention policy.
During the China-Arab Cooperation Forum 2024 (CASCF 2024), significant progress was made as China and Arab leaders reached important agreements. The forum resulted in the release of several crucial documents, including the Beijing Declaration, the Action Implementation Plan for 2024-2026, and a joint statement by China and the Arab states on the Gaza crisis (Farhat, 2024). These documents not only mark a momentous milestone in Chinese-Arab relations but also provide a well-designed roadmap for future regional cooperation.
Furthermore, both sides announced substantial measures to enhance regional and global development. This includes reaching a consensus on key international issues of mutual concern, such as human rights, counterterrorism, climate change, green transition, artificial intelligence, and new technologies. In addition, China will continue to coordinate its regional investments, economic initiatives, and trade activities with the Arab states. This collaboration, both at the bilateral and regional levels, supports the development goals of the Arab region and reinforces China's new role as a responsible global power.
Aligning Chinese-Arab Ties for Regional Stability
In promoting China-Arab cooperation, it has been crucial to align a shared vision and agreed-upon position on key Middle Eastern crises, such as the Gaza crisis. The involvement of a major economic power like China in the Middle East coincides with its geopolitical support for the Arab stance on key regional and international issues. China's consistent political support in recent years for the Palestinian cause, the right of self-determination of the Palestinian people, and the two-state solution has facilitated its involvement in the region and complemented the principles of a Chinese-Arab shared future (Xinhua, 2024).
On the other side, the United States' reluctant posture since the outbreak of the war in October 2023 has drawn China and other major powers closer to the Arab perspective on Gaza, which has led to a distancing from the external deceptive postures of traditional Western allies on the crisis. China's well-defined stance on Gaza fosters long-term political trust among Arab leaders in the Chinese Communist Party, thereby supporting China's positioning as a global model for peace and prosperity in the future.
Another significant outcome of the forum was the alignment of Chinese-Arab ties in the realms of regional and global stability. China has adopted a distinct approach to engaging in geopolitical and security instability in other regions, carefully balancing its involvement by projecting itself as a diplomatic mediator in complex geopolitical disputes, rather as a partisan power. This role has been welcomed by the Arab world.
China's approach in the Middle East has proven effective, as demonstrated by its facilitation of an agreement between two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, in 2023 to restore ties. Additionally, China is actively engaging with Russia and Ukraine in their current crisis. China's involvement in promoting peace is further exemplified by its facilitation of the peace deal under the umbrella of the Global Security Initiative, which was announced in 2021 and designed by the Chinese Communist Party to establish a global security framework that transcends ideological and regional divisions. Yet, the critical need for further coordination between both sides to enable China to exercise this role in the Middle East remains evident. It is important to note that China does not seek to replace the West in the Middle East, and Arab countries value their cooperation with China, aligning with the Arab world's prioritization of the development agenda.
The Arab world is cautious about repeating the mistake of allowing Western powers to deeply embed themselves in the geopolitical and security affairs of the Middle East. The Arab Spring and the recent fluctuations in regional stability proved that external leadership by great powers in Middle Eastern crises has resulted in long-lasting power vacuums with unintended consequences for Arab security. As a result, Arab states are unlikely to make the same mistake when dealing with the emerging East.
Similarly, China remains cautious in avoiding taking on full leadership in resolving Arab issues, as it seeks to distance itself from associations with Western imperialism or hegemony. Rather, China's strategy is to navigate opportunities and find the most suitable timing to bring the disputing parties to the negotiating table while maintaining an impartial stance as a mediator. As the largest trade partner for over 120 countries and a key contributor to global development, China is projected to be a reliable global actor (Shan, 2024).
Challenges and Future Prospects
While the Arab world seems to support China's stepping into a new global role, achieving China's vision of global security in the Middle East is not free of challenges in the long term. Satisfactory resolutions for Middle Eastern crises require diplomatic, geopolitical, and security alignment with the Arab States, as well as a more determined Chinese stance on disruptive events in the Arab World.
Some observers criticize China-Arab cooperation for lacking precise projects despite the regular high-level visits and annual meetings. They argue that China and Arab countries should move beyond abstract forums and the signature of a general memorandum of understanding to implement real progress and tangible deliverables (Ali, 2024).
However, it is important to note that China has a different approach to establishing and promoting cooperation with other regions compared to the West. To understand Chinese external behavior, it is crucial to view China's foreign policy through the lens of slogan politics rather than through the well-defined and structured strategies typical of American and European foreign policy that regulate their cooperation with other regions.
Chinese policymakers often issue general declarations and/or abstract cooperation frameworks with other regions. This approach provides greater flexibility to mobilize domestic and international actors and allows for modifications to the cooperation framework over time. Consequently, the loose cooperation frameworks enable more regional input, ensuring that the cooperation aligns with the partner regions' agendas, interests, and needs in the long run.
The contemporary Chinese approach to exercising foreign behavior is associated with the "Slogan Politics" concept, developed by Jinghan Zeng (2020), which clarifies how Chinese policymaking operates and interacts with other external partners in China. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faced significant criticism upon its announcement in 2013 for being abstract and vague, which increased the reluctance of other regions and countries to join (Zeng, 2020). However, China gradually incorporated established bilateral and regional projects with other countries into the BRI framework.
Despite its loose approach, this manner of establishing strategic partnerships allows the parties involved to adapt and adjust to changing dynamics. It also enables them to maintain control over the overall principles and agreed cooperation, gradually supplementing them with specific projects and deliverables developed by the working groups.
The 2024 China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) marked a significant milestone in re-evaluating, modifying, and enhancing Chinese-Arab cooperation. With China's new position as a major global power and the ongoing crises and needs within the Arab world, it is crucial to adjust the overall cooperation to better suit current circumstances. One noteworthy aspect of this edition of CASCF is the closer alignment of political and security stances between the two sides. However, implementing the announced declarations will require further coordination for longer-term cooperation.
References
Ali, Layla. 2024. Review of Opportunities and Limits of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum. GRC.net. Gulf Research Center. June 6, 2024. https://www.grc.net/single-commentary/167.
Farhat, Beatrice. 2024. Review of China’s Largest Arab Summit Wraps with “Beijing Declaration”: What We Know Read More: Https://Www.al-Monitor.com/Originals/2024/05/Chinas-Largest-Arab-Summit-Wraps-Beijing-Declaration-What-We-Know#Ixzz8d1ASEuav. Al-Monitor. May 30, 2024. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/05/chinas-largest-arab-summit-wraps-beijing-declaration-what-we-know.
Global Times. n.d. “China-Arab Community with a Shared Future Provides a Vivid Annotation for Peace, Devt: Global Times Editorial - Global Times.” Www.globaltimes.cn. Accessed June 13, 2024. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1313374.shtml.
Shan, Lee Ying. 2024. “China De-Linking Talk Is Overdone and It’s Still Key to the Global Economy, Asian Development Bank Says.” CNBC. February 26, 2024. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/26/china-still-top-trading-partner-for-many-countries-says-adb.html#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20economic%20powerhouse%20remains.
Xinhua. 2024. Review of China Firmly Supports Palestinian People Restoring Their Legitimate National Rights. Edited by Huaxia . Xinhua.net. May 22, 2024. https://english.news.cn/20240522/ee5449f59ffe459bad75504d477d7855/c.html.
Xinhua. 2024. Review of Interview: Cooperation Forum Helps Build China-Arab Community with a Shared Future, Says Arab-Chinese Friendship Societies Chairman. Edited by Huaxia. Xinhua Net. June 2, 2024. https://english.news.cn/20240602/17b384d8915c4251aa160d249f536142/c.html.
Zeng, Jinghan. 2020. Slogan Politics: Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy Concepts. Palgrave Macmillan. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-15-6683-7.
