On April 15, 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting that included the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. The main topic on the agenda was the region’s relations with Syria and the possibility of returning to the Arab League fold after the suspension of its membership in November 2012. The visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, on April 18, to Damascus raised the question of whether recent diplomatic movements with Syria may pave the way for attending the Arab League Summit set to be held on May 19.
Diplomatic Movements
Quickly realizing that al-Asad is most likely to stay, neighboring Arab regimes have begun efforts of rapprochement with the regime in Damascus. Now more than ever, the political reality in Syria may lend itself to a possible return to the Arab fold.
Previous attempts to restore relations with Damascus, the last of which had been in the months leading up to the 31st Arab League summit hosted by Algeria in November last year, mostly failed. Yet, the devastating earthquake that hit the country in February 2023 created another channel to reconnect with the Syrian regime through humanitarian aid. Furthermore, as movements gather pace in the region, we may recognize a number of developments, outlined as follows:
1. Arab-Syrian movements:
In the wake of the earthquake that hit north of Syria, many Arab countries rushed to provide aid and support. Soon after, humanitarian aid facilitated diplomatic contact as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Oman on February 20, followed by another visit to the UAE on March 19. Exchange visits by Arab diplomats followed: Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi flew to Syria on February 15, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry visited Damascus 12 days after. Moreover, while offering humanitarian support was the primary purpose of those visits, it became quite clear that those trips carried important political messages about the shift in Arab-Syrian relations.
Additionally, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad’s shuttle visits to several Arab capitals, including Cairo, Riyadh, Algeria, and Tunis, between the 1st and 17th of April, indicate that the disaster has been a pretext to restore Arab-Syrian relations since it was suspended in 2011. Russia, too, has voiced its support for rapprochement between Turkey and Syria. In this context, al-Assad visited Moscow on March 14, seeking Russia’s support and mediation for Arab-Syrian normalization, especially with Saudi.
2. Saudi-Syrian movements:
While Saudi was not as engaged in humanitarian relief as other Arab countries, it has been at the forefront of efforts to restore diplomatic relations with Damascus. This may be viewed within the context of the China-brokered deal signed between Saudi and Iran, an agreement set to facilitate discussions and resolution of the Yemeni and Syrian crises.
Saudi’s movements have been relatively remarkable. US media reports have revealed several communications between Riyadh and Russia to align on relations with Syria. Also, meetings have taken place between Saudi and Syria to discuss the possibility of reopening embassies between the two sides. Syrian Foreign Minister participated in the Arab foreign ministers meeting held in Amman where normalization of ties with Damascus was discussed. Reuters later revealed that Saudi intends to invite Syria’s president to the summit in May, which will come on the heels of a recent visit by the Saudi foreign minister to Damascus, where he met the Syrian president, ending 12 years of rupture with Syria.
Imminent Hurdles
Arab diplomatic efforts, however serious they are, face a number of challenges that may stand in the way of a full renewal of Arab-Syria relations. Reminiscent of efforts ahead of the 21st summit in Algeria, Arab attempts to fully normalize relations with Syria run the risk of breaking down owing to several obstacles, which may be outlined as follows:
1. Lack of Arab consensus:
Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said that without an Arab consensus, Syria could not return to the Arab League. Despite heavy diplomatic efforts in the period following the disaster, several Arab states have yet to align with an effort to normalize relations with Syria. Those states yet to agree to Syria’s return say that nothing essential has changed that would allow the return of normal relations with Damascus.
Qatar, for instance, has continued to oppose Syria’s return to the organisation. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani said during meetings convened in Jeddah that his country had not changed its stance on Syria. However, the League’s regulatory and procedural bylaws do not require a unanimous agreement to pass the motion on Syria’s membership resumption; for instance, Syria’s suspension was passed with 18 votes for the motion and three against. Syria, after all, might not need the support of Arab states.
2. Western rejection:
Another obstacle to Syria’s return to the Arab League is the US’ disapproval of any normalization efforts with Syria on the basis of human rights claims and the absence of a political resolution to the Syrian civil conflict. US State Department Deputy Spokesman, Vedant Patel, said on April 20 that the US does not think Syria deserves to be welcomed back to the Arab League and that the US would not normalize due to a lack of material progress towards a full resolution of the conflict. Patel added that the US had asked its regional allies who are engaging with the Syrian regime to demand that Damascus improve the humanitarian situation in the country.
Yet many Arab states recently have charted away from US policy on the region. Saudi, for instance, has signed a deal with Iran to resume diplomatic relations. In other instances, Saudi defied US wishes about oil production and OPEC+ decisions. The US, however, still retains the economic sanctions card, including Caesar Act which could hinder any progress with the Syrian regime. In other words, an Arab political decision to normalize relations with the Syrian regime away from US approval might not translate into reality, given the American ability to block it.
3. Syrian regime’s inflexibility:
when the Syrian civil war broke out, Arab foreign ministers put forward a number of proposals to When the Syrian civil war broke out, Arab foreign ministers put forward multiple proposals to resolve the conflict. Some of the proposed initiatives included the resumption of political dialogue between the Syrian regime and the opposition, the establishment of a government of national unity; as well as guaranteeing humanitarian aid, facilitating the return of refugees, establishing due political processes, and releasing political prisoners. Other initiatives followed that aimed to find a solution to the Syrian conflict and normalize relations with the Syrian regime.
The closing statement of the Jeddah meeting reiterated these provisions and the importance of resolving the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria. The statement urged Syria to allow the return of refugees and the delivery of humanitarian aid, as well as take tangible measures towards the country’s stability and fight drug trafficking. Damascus, however, has not shown any flexibility towards most of these requests, which may slow its return to normal relations with the region.
In conclusion, it can be said that the Arab movement to normalize relations with Syria and to occupy its seat in the Arab League still faces several challenges. It is clear from the statements issued by the Jeddah consultative meeting and the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Damascus, which aimed to convince Syria to take some measures that may contribute to removing the obstacles that prevent the achievement of the Arab consensus, that the decision to invite Syria to attend the Arab summit to be hosted by Riyadh on May 19, 2023, has not yet been taken. However, the phase of isolating Syria is likely over, and this will be the main result of the recent movement.
