Somalia’s parliament on 25 June overwhelmingly endorsed Hamza Abdi Barre as new prime minister, paving the way for the creation of a new government. Barre received confidence votes of 220 present PMs of the 275-seat parliament, where he was sworn in amid domestic and foreign challenges laying ahead.
The New Prime Minister
Somalia’s new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, picked Barre as the new prime minister, having praised his experience. “I have based on my decision after assessing the knowledge, experience, capability of Hamza, and I came to the conclusion he is the right person who can discharge this new responsibility in this new Somalia at this new time,” Sheikh Mohamud said at the Presidential Palace earlier in June.
Media reports said President Sheikh Mohamud had asked lawmakers to approve the new prime minister “quickly” and Barre to advance key priorities of the new government, including security, drought response, reconciliation, community development and climate shock response.
Barre’s appointment reflects two key aspects of the new government:
1. An experienced politician hailing from Jubaland:
Barre has become Somalia’s 21st PM since its independence in 1960. He assumed several political and academic positions, his most recent being elected to the House of the People of the Federal Parliament of Somalia in December 2021. He also served as an administrative advisor to the governor of Banaadir region and later to the mayor of Mogadishu, Hassan Mohamed Hussein during 2014, and 2015 to 2019. Prior to becoming Somalia’s latest prime minister, he served as the secretary-general of the Peace and Development Party under President Mohamud from 2011 to 2017.
2. Robel’s term end:
In his last cabinet meeting on 21 June, Roble thanked his cabinet members for their support during his term and asked his colleagues to facilitate the work of the new prime minister. Roble was appointed prime minister in September 2020 taking over his predecessor Hassan Ali Khaire. Roble made tangible progress advancing the work of the government following a period of stalemate and managed to avoid the country from sliding into a civil war.
Barre’s Appointment
President Sheikh Mohamud’s decision highlights an important development in Somalia’s politics, which could be summarised as follows:
1. Driving national conciliation:
Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to pick Barre reflects his intention to preserve peace in the country. He’s aiming to resolve points of difference among national factions, which erupted during the term of former Somali president, Mohamed Abdillahi Mohamed (Farmajo), and which saw Jubaland leading the disputes between regional and the central government.
To this effect, Sheikh Mohamud met the governors of the five states. Roble attended the meeting and stressed his commitment to national reconciliation and peacemaking. The delegates agreed on progressing national reconciliation, building the national institutions, including national security agencies with a focus on counterterrorism, and working on a permanent constitution.
2. Ending power struggle:
Barre’s appointment is an attempt to break the empty cycle of power dispute that was seen between Farmajo and his prime minister, Roble. Farmajo’s attempt to extend his term led to deep fractions within his government’s institutions that inevitably led to the collapse of the government. This shake-up had an adverse impact on the government ability to face surging terrorist activity of al-Shabab – the al-Qaeda-linked armed group fighting to overthrow the government and implement its strict interpretation of Islamic law.
Yet, the new government seem to be more congruent than its predecessor. Both played active roles in the Union for Peace and Development Party, which Sheikh Mohamud is the founder and current chairman, and Barre a former undersecretary. Barre and Mohamud are both academics, sharing similar backgrounds and interests.
In addition, Barre has expressed his commitment to adopting mechanisms of dispute resolution that would lower the risk of political escalation. His aim, Barre asserted, is to form a government that facilitates political stability.
3. Tribal quotas:
Somalia remains largely influenced by its tribal make-up. Barre for instance belongs to the Ogaden branch of the Darod clan. Thus, Somali politics is guided by tribal share of power among the largest clans.
In 2000, a consensus among Somalia’s clan elders was reached to bring into the political process the introduction of the 4.5 power-sharing clan agreement. This agreement stipulated that the four major clans – Darood, Digil and Mirifle, Dir, and Hawiye obtaining equal number of seats in the parliament, while smaller clans would get half of that.
As such, Sheikh Mohamud who hails from the Hawiye clan, has appointed Barre of the Darood, and Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur of Digil and Mirifle clan as parliament speaker.
New Policies
The Somalian government in its new form looks to adopt a set of new policies that address domestic and foreign issues, which can be summarised in the following:
1. Mitigating issues with Puntland:
The Barre’s appointment has upset Puntland, threatening to end cooperation with the federal government. Clearly, not all Somali fractions were happy with Barre’s pick, and a series of disagreements may ensue. Voicing this position was the State Agency Minister for Water, Energy and Natural Resources, who said days after Barre’s appointment that Puntland would cease cooperation with the federal government, echoing similar sentiment by the region’s president, Said Abdullahi Dani. Abdi Barre, however, backed by the West and the United States, banks on his political acumen to bring closer Somalian factions.
2. Somaliland, closer to Mogadishu:
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi said the appointment of Barre is a positive step towards cultivating political dialogue and reaching a sustainable agreement between the regional and federal government. A positive indication, no doubt, as the de facto state in the Horn of Africa shows amenability towards the central government.
Also, Hamza Barre has said his government is working on a new strategy to facilitate a political understanding and expressed his government’s readiness to launch dialogue whenever Somaliland administration is ready.
3. Controversial dialogue with al-Shabab:
Proving a formidable foe, the federal government appear to be running out of viable options. On the one hand, there’s a growing opinion that political dialogue might be worth a shot. A recent report published by the International Crisis Group, suggested Somalia’s government should engage in dialogue with the terrorist militia to “break the deadlock”, for the alternative is an endless war that has already been ongoing for more than fifteen years.
On the other hand, experts still hold to the view that any political dialogue with the Islamist insurgents must take place in line with a continuing military operation to weaken their position. Whether Barre would choose military or political dialogue remains unclear, however.
4. Restructuring regional alliances:
It is expected that Barre would bring about a shift in Somalia’s relations with regional and international actors. While the former government maintained strong ties to Ethiopia and Eritrea, the new government under Hamza Barre is seeking to establish a new alliance with Kenya.
The new Somali-Kenyan alliance has been developing for a while. In his first trip as president, Sheikh Mohamud visited Nairobi after stopping first in Abu Dhabi. Also, the spokesperson to the president of Somalia said Sheikh Mahmud would order the return of thousands of Somali armed troops from Eritrea – which had been sent in a covert training operation during Farmajo’s term. The US, moreover, is showing signs of support to the burgeoning Somali-Kenyan pact. It is also worth noting that having chosen a prime minister from Jubaland builds on this region’s strong relations with Kenya and on Barre’s close ties to leaders of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) – a fierce opposition to the Ethiopian government.
Looking at the international factors at play in the Horn of Africa region, the US aims to draw the Ethiopia away from China and Russia’s influence. Therefore, more diplomatic efforts have been invested lately to strengthen this triad alliance. What support this view is a recent visit to Kenya by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the progressing dialogue between Abiy’s government and the TPLF.
To conclude, the new Somalian government seeks to resolve ongoing domestic issues that cement national reconciliation, security, and stability. Regionally, Barre’s government are leaning towards Kenya and away from Ethiopia and Eretria. As the Russo-Western confrontation over Ukraine intensifies, Russia looks to establish a military presence in Eretria, while the US pays increased attention to Somalia. The region, thus, echoes a growing international tension that is certainly re-shaping alliances and strategic priorities.
