During the first half of June, Europe witnessed general parliamentary elections in Britain and France. The surprising results reflect significant shifts in voters’ perceptions in western societies. In France, traditional political parties continued to decline and this was seen during the presidential elections last month. Marine Le Pen and her party, the National Front, suffered from an unexpected and severe rejection while new faces, that have entered the political arena for the first time, dominated the scene through the newly-formed party led by Emmanuel Macron.
In Britain, small and medium-sized parties collapsed and voters became almost completely divided between two major parties, the Conservative Party and the Labor Party. The Conservative Party’s popularity has declined amid an interesting and unexpected rise of the Labor Party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In both cases, the election results will have important repercussions on the future of Europe.
The Significance of Elections’ Results
British Prime Minister, Theresa May, called for early parliamentary elections, years before they’re scheduled. May relied on polls that showed she was hugely popular. However, the results of the elections held on June 8 greatly destabilized her internal situation, as her party, i.e. the Conservative Party, lost the majority it had enjoyed in parliament. The party, accordingly, will not be able to govern without some sort of alliance with another party that provides it with the possibility to pass its legislations.
The negotiations related to Brexit, which have been the elections’ central issue, are now in the wind. May’s aim of the general elections was to mobilize the Brits for a Brexit vision with the least possible costs and concessions to Europe. Brexit is viewed as the “difficult” or decisive exit. However, according to several observers, the election results embodied the “revenge” of almost half of the voters who had voted to remain in the EU.
The direct result of these elections is represented in weakening May’s negotiating stance amid divisions within British political parties, and within the Conservative Party itself, on how to execute Brexit. There are also suspicions about the government’s capability to pass legislations necessary to implement what has been agreed upon during negotiations. There are expectations that the government will have to resort to parliamentary elections before the end of this year and that May will begin these negotiations, yet she will not remain in power during the required duration to reach a final agreement to exit the EU.
Meanwhile, the results of the French parliamentary elections revealed that newly-elected president Macron won a vast majority that would support him in parliament and that there will be small opposition from the Republicans’ party. Therefore, Macron will be able to pass the legislations and carry out the reforms he promised during his electoral campaign. Some of these significant promises are openness to Europe and reviving the European project by strengthening cooperation in the financial and defensive fields among the EU countries.
As the British role and influence decline in Europe, a young French leadership with major internal support has emerged and it is expected for this leadership to play a significant role in pushing the European project forward.
Positive Indications
The results of the French and British elections carried positive indications for the unity of the European project during the upcoming phase. Before these elections, the common vision was that Britain’s exit from the EU will greatly harm the latter, as it may encourage other countries to exit too. Divisions have led to an overwhelming situation regarding the process to execute Brexit. Some even think the situation has become chaotic but in all cases it signifies the “collapse of the model.” It confirms the political risks that have gone as far as “gambling” while trying to figure out the voters’ stance on the matter. This position is linked to several economic, social and generational factors. Therefore, it’s not expected for the British experience to encourage other countries to pursue this path.
On the other hand, most analysts viewed the results of the French elections, whether the presidential or parliamentary ones, as a transformation point, if not a severe blow, for the continuity of the populist tide that opposes the EU. Despite the momentum, which Marine Le Pen gained during the first round of the presidential elections and her success to proceed to the second round, interest in her and in her party declined. Her party is divided and its internal disputes can be clearly viewed during the parliamentary elections. Le Pen’s events during the parliamentary elections did not garner much interest from supporters or the opposition. Her party was only able to get a few number of seats that will not allow it to play an important role in parliament.
This is around the same time as polls in several European countries, including France and Germany, indicated the rise of popular support to the EU since Britain voted to exit it. According to a poll by the Pew Research Center in 2017, 68 percent of those polled in Germany had positive opinions about the EU. This percentage did not exceed 50% last year. The percentage of those in support of the EU in France has increased by 18 percent during the past year to reach 56 percent. Britain was no exception as the percentage of those in support of the EU increased by 10 percent after the Brits voted to exit the EU and the percentage thus reached 54 percent this year.
What strengthens the chances of reviving European solidarity is the presence of some factors to revive joint German-French leadership for this new phase of the EU’s life. It’s clear that the young French president, Macron, looks forward to play an active role in the European and global arena and this makes German-French cooperation a priority to him.
Germany was his first foreign trip, and he also visited it during his presidential campaign. Macron strengthened his government with figures who are experienced in dealing with the German political system and culture. Meanwhile, German chancellor Angela Merkel, who is expected to win the general elections next fall and serve a fourth term, emphasized that the Europeans must specify their fate themselves as they cannot rely on their traditional allies like before.
Merkel’s stance is an analysis of the stance, which Europe finds itself in considering Britain’s withdrawal from the EU and after Donald Trump became President of the US and especially after his recent visit to Europe as he did not clearly confirm America’s security commitments towards European allies and the NATO. Trump also withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement later. Following her meeting with Macron, Merkel voiced her acceptance of the idea to amend the basic documents, which govern the work of the EU. This paves way for the changes and reforms that the French president had called for. The general situation in Europe seems to be in support of joint German-French work that activates the European project towards more solidarity and joint cooperation.
Various Challenges
Despite the positive atmosphere and the optimism created by Macron’s and his party’s rise in the European arena, the EU still confronts several challenges. Brexit – regardless of how it will be carried out – will weaken the EU on the economic and military fronts. Instability in Britain may lead to a very grim scenario as the deadline may end without reaching an agreement that organizes how Britain will exit the EU. This will lead to chaos for both parties and result in huge losses.
The distant relation with the US enhances solidarity among European countries and stimulates them to coordinate better. However, one cannot deny their political dispute and different interests. For example, there are major contradictions between western European countries and some eastern European countries, like Poland and Hungary, due to the latter’s authoritarian orientations that contradict with the democratic principles that are the European project’s most important pillars. This is in addition to traditional disputes between creditor nations and debtor nations, like Greece and Italy.
Internal reforms of economic and fiscal policies are the most important obstacles, which will confront strengthening European cooperation, even between France and Germany. Merkel is one of those who adheres the most to the necessity of reforming the financial situation in countries where there are budget deficit and great sovereign debt, like France. She thinks this is an initial step before amending the European institutions. German voters, whom Merkel must take into consideration as the elections near, also insist on these measures.
Meanwhile, Macron pledged radical reforms such as amending the legislations of the labor market and which were widely protested when the French government, that Macron was part of, tried to implement during Francois Hollande’s presidential term.
Although it is expected for Macron to have the necessary majority to pass these amendments in parliament, this does not guarantee the response of harmed social categories. The absence of a strong parliamentary opposition that’s capable of defending the demands of those who oppose the government strengthens analysts’ fears that confrontations, which may be violent, may erupt between the government and opposition protesters in the streets. This may be the case particularly as the first round of the presidential elections showed that there are wide politicized segments that are willing to adopt extremist stances in the street, particularly towards labor rights and economically marginalized categories.
In conclusion, the results of the recent elections in France and Britain represent the continuity of shifts and instability. They also showed the inability to predict developments in the West, i.e. in Europe and the US. All the previous political events in the West happened within the context of internal tensions that are almost unprecedented in modern history. This coincides with the western governments’ inability to provide the guarantees and help which many segments in theses societies need after their economic and social situation deteriorated due to globalization, technological development and slow economic growth.
Meanwhile, analysts have observed a steady transition towards the economic and financial center of gravity to the east in Asia. European countries are now more aware about the importance of finding themselves a place in this new world where the US’ leading role has retreated. Despite that, they still suffer from severe divisions, which will not be easy to overcome.
