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Iminent Crisis

Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?

19 أبريل، 2024


The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.

Intensified Activity

Organized crime activities in Latin America can be summarized as follows:

1. Security chaos:

In early 2024, most Latin American countries experienced waves of violence and turmoil caused by the activity of organized crime groups. This was evident in Ecuador, which declared a state of emergency on January 8, 2024, for sixty days after armed men stormed a public television station, holding journalists and other channel staff hostage briefly. Additionally, criminal groups raided prisons, abducted police officers, and smuggled out following the escape of the country's most wanted gang leader, José Adolfo Macías Villamar, aka Fito, from the Guayaquil prison. 

In Haiti in March 2024, an alliance of gangs led by Jimmy Chérizier, the elite police officer-turned-gang leader known as Barbecue, attacked police stations and stormed two of the country's largest prisons. This followed reports of gunmen attempting to seize control of the main container port in Port-au-Prince, disrupting traffic and threatening to attack more police stations in the city. 

Furthermore, a group of heavily armed gang members attempted to take control of Toussaint Louverture International Airport, the country's largest, exchanging gunfire with police, leading to the cancellation of all domestic and international flights.

2. Rising murder rates:

Organized crime groups threaten the lives of citizens in most countries of the region. Haiti witnessed a significant increase in murder rates and renewed political violence linked to drug trafficking, with nearly 4,000 people killed and 3,000 others abducted in gang-related violence in 2023. Sexual violence also escalated, with 1,100 attacks on women reported by October and over 300,000 people displaced, including at least 15,000 in recent times, according to the United Nations. Similarly, murder and violence rates in Ecuador increased by over sixfold. In just five years, the murder rate rose by about 800%, reaching 46 per 100,000 inhabitants, the highest rate in the country's history and one of the highest in Latin America. Ecuador was among the lowest in the continent in terms of murder rates before this surge.

Contributing Factors

Various factors have contributed to the activity of organized crime in Latin American countries, notably:

1. Growing influence of gangs:

The increase in organized crime rates in Latin America can be attributed to the proliferation of criminal gangs in most countries. Starting with Haiti, where a prolonged conflict between two gangs, G9, an alliance of nine gangs founded in 2020 led by Jimmy Jimmy Chérizier (Barbecue), and its rival, G-PEP gang, allegedly linked to parties opposing the former President Jovenel Moïse, who was assassinated in 2021. The two gangs compete for influence and control over territories, engaging in shootings that have targeted impoverished neighborhoods and the capital, Port-au-Prince. G9 has largely controlled the capital and roads leading to other parts of the country for days amidst the absence of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, whom gangs and some of the population demand to resign.

Conversely, criminal gangs like Los Choneros and Los Lobos, led by Vito" and Pico, among others, contributed to the increase in drug trafficking in Ecuador, which has become a major export point for cocaine produced in Peru and Colombia, reinforcing the presence of over 20 other criminal gangs operating there.

2. Corruption and weak governance:

Organized crime groups thrive in countries with paralyzed security systems, corruption across various government institutions, and weak local law enforcement forces facing the growing strength and armament of criminal gangs.

For instance, the power vacuum in Haiti caused by the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, coupled with the absence of parliamentary or general elections since 2019, contributed to the growing influence of gangs and the spread of organized crime across the country. The situation worsened with Prime Minister Ariel Henry assuming power despite his declining popularity and inability to restore security, prompting him to travel to Kenya to sign an agreement on deploying a multinational police force to assist in combating gang violence, which has reached unprecedented levels.

Moreover, some analysts indicate that recent developments in Haiti leave no doubt that gangs have become increasingly stronger than government security forces. Figures from 2023 indicate that Haiti's national police force has only 9,000 active officers in a country with a population of 11.5 million, while the United Nations estimates suggest that the country needs about 26,000 additional officers.

In contrast, rampant corruption among officials and police officers in Ecuador contributed to the growing influence of gangs and the weakening of state authority. Leaders like Masiás and others turned nearly a quarter of Ecuador's 36 prisons into their headquarters, organizing attacks and recruiting new members. Masiás' escape shortly before being transferred to a more secure unit within the prison compound clearly indicated receiving a warning from corrupt officials.

Various Ramifications

The spread of organized crime gangs in Latin America has had numerous negative effects, including:

Firstly: Implications for the United States

The current waves of violence and tensions in Latin America cast shadows on the United States and its influence in the region in the following ways:

1. Threat to the US national security:

The security threats posed by criminal gangs in Latin America affect the United States' national security as they further exacerbate the crisis of illegal immigrant influx to the country's borders. According to the International Organization for Migration, the border area between Mexico and the United States is the world's deadliest migration land route, with 1.7 million migrants arriving at the Mexico-US border in 2021. Immigration has thus become a significant security issue in both countries, especially because both are heading towards presidential elections next year.

Furthermore, reports suggesting Russian efforts to negotiate visa-free entry with Mexico and several Caribbean countries should also be a cause for concern for the United States. It needs to actively oppose measures that could facilitate the entry of Russian government agents into the region.

Moreover, drug trafficking to the United States poses a significant threat. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Haiti has long been a transshipment center for transporting cocaine, cannabis, and, to a lesser extent, heroin and amphetamines to the United States and the Dominican Republic.

2. Diminishing US Influence in the Region

In conjunction with the noticeable decline in US influence in the region due to Washington's sanctions policies and continued interventions in the internal affairs of regional countries, active security threats posed by criminal gangs contribute to the decline of US influence in the region as a whole. Two factors further evidence this: 

A. Failure of US measures: Washington has allocated relatively small funds to enhance law enforcement and combat crime in Latin America. In March 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional USD 100 million to finance the deployment of a multinational force to Haiti, bringing the total US support to USD 300 million for this effort since the crisis reached its height in Haiti several years ago. This minuscule contribution reflects the failure of the United Nations-mandated multinational security mission, led by Kenya and supported by the United States, aimed at restoring security and enabling elections in Haiti.

Moreover, some countries in the region have refused to cooperate with the United States in drug control efforts. Rafael Correa, the leftist populist president of Ecuador from 2007 to 2017, closed a US military base in Manta, a port city on Ecuador's central coast, and reduced cooperation with the US Drug Enforcement Administration, dismantling an elite drug police force trained by US agents.

Finally, the insatiable demand for drugs by Americans fuels a significant portion of crime bosses' incomes in the region. Meanwhile, firearms manufactured in the United States flow easily across the region's borders, arming gangs and cartels in Latin America.

B. Russia's and China's expanding influence into Latin America: This has hindered US efforts to re-engage with the region, whether through economic agreements or political understandings with regional countries. This was evident in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia's refusal to provide military aid to Ukraine.

Secondly: Global ramifications:

Indeed, the impact of organized crime activity will not only harm countries in the region but will also cast shadows on countries worldwide, including:

1. Greater influence:

Some analyses indicate that the danger of organized crime gangs in Latin America lies in their success in forming diverse networks of relationships between regional countries and beyond. For example, in Ecuador, the Los Choneros gang gained leadership of the arena by being one of the first Ecuadorian groups to establish relations with the Mexican Sinaloa cartel. It is believed that both organizations, along with other local gangs, obtained arms from their Mexican sponsors in exchange for shipments of cocaine.

Similarly, cooperation with international criminal organizations strengthens local gangs, complicating their criminal structures and creating dangerous threats worldwide. Drug trade, especially cocaine, attracted international criminal gangs to Latin America, including from Europe and Asia, who are seeking to purchase drugs directly from the source, secure low prices, and maximize profits.

2. Supporting terrorism:

Some have noted that the most significant danger of organized crime groups lies in their connection with international terrorist organizations. Terrorist organizations have growing opportunities to benefit from the political and social environment to develop their resources, driven by the growth of illicit trade through alliances with local gangs.

In this context, some reports indicate cooperation between ISIS and al-Qaeda and the maras, the gangs of Central America. Additionally, ISIS members have managed to use safe passages provided by these gangs, an important corridor for infiltration into the United States. Hezbollah, too, through alliances with Latin American organized crime gangs, managed to use the Triple Frontier, a tri-border area along the junction of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, to finance its terrorist activities in exchange for passing shipments of cocaine belonging to criminal gangs to the Middle East.

In conclusion, given the continued complexity of the current international context and the United States' preoccupation with conflicts, whether in the Middle East or Ukraine, an increase in the power and influence of organized crime gangs is expected in the near future. This calls for a global, multi-party approach to confronting these risks and curbing their spread.