The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held from October 16 to October 22, is the most significant event in China. The event only happens twice every decade, but this particular Congress is extraordinarily important. President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third five-year term in power, breaking with the party’s rule of not allowing a sitting leader for more than two successive five-year terms in office. The rule was established by former president Deng Xiaoping and was enshrined in the country’s constitution which was later amended by president Xi in 2017.
Domestic and International Contexts
The CCP’s 20th congress was held amid national, regional and international developments and challenges. These can be outlined as follows:
1. Limited protests:
Policies embraced by President Xi to address the Covid-19 pandemic by tough lockdowns and other tight measures have caused wider popular resentment, according to reports from Western media. A few days before the Congress was held, Cable news network CNN reported limited protests broke out on the Siting Bridge in Beijing and while the network could not broadcast any footage from the bridge, it stressed that Chinese police were deployed everywhere.
Circulated footage and photos show banners hanging over the overpass in protest against the top leader Xi Jinping unrelenting zero-Covid policy and authoritarian rule. One of the banners reads “Life not zero-Covid policy, freedom not martial-lawish lockdown, dignity not lies, reform not cultural revolution, votes not dictatorship, citizens not slaves.”
2. False rumors of a coup against Xi:
An unsupported claim about China - that Gen. Li Qiaoming had launched a coup against Chinese President Xi Jinping - spread through the internet and the media in late September. Other rumors claimed that discontent is growing among the ruling elite amid growing political and economic challenges facing the state. The anti-CCP parts of the Chinese diaspora, such as the global Falun Gong movement, a new religious movement now banned in China, played a key role in spreading the rumors.
Rumors about a coup in China almost always focus on the military seizing power. However, these rumors are fundamentally incompatible with the nature of the role being played by the military within the political system, as well as with the nature of its relationship with the CCP, which keeps it under control as part of President Xi’s approach who keeps his focus on bolstering the allegiance of the military to him.
3. Crackdown on the opposition:
President Xi was accused of embracing oppressive policies to eliminate his opponents and remove them from political life to preempt them from posing any threats to his tight grip ahead of the key Congress. Last month, a number of former government and security officials were jailed for corruption charges. Western analysts believe that the sentences were given to secure Xi’s rule for a third term and prevent any internal opposition to him.
4. A worsening economic situation:
China’s economy is facing challenges basically caused by global crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine. President Xi promotes economic development as the most critical pillar of China’s national security. That is why he has been seeking to counter economic challenges caused by an economic growth slowdown.
Several forecasts for China’s economic growth were slashed to 2.8% in 2022, down from 8.1 last year. The Yuan fell to its weakest level in 14 years, and fell roughly 10% against the dollar this year. This was coupled with a drop in consumer spending and domestic demand.
Western analyses believe that the economic situation worsened because of the zero-Covid policies leading to a surge in the youth unemployment rates, which, according to Bloomberg, hit a record 19.9 percent in July 2022. The surveyed jobless rate stood at 5.4% in the same month. China seeks to create 11 million new jobs this year in its cities to keep the overall unemployment rate below 5.5%. This means that the economic situation currently represents the biggest challenge facing President Xi’s popularity.
5. Strained China-US relations:
The 20th CPC Congress was held amid growing regional and international challenges posing a tough test for China’s foreign policy amid tensions straining China’s relations with the United States over the crisis in Taiwan. This is further compounded by the United States’ work on building anti-China alliances in the South China Sea and South East Asia.
As part of this approach, China, on August 10, released a white paper on Taiwan to reiterate the significance of the island for China, emphasize that the mainland is committed to claiming sovereignty over Taiwan and that there is a need for taking all measures to deter any secession attempts. This white paper indicates that the Chinese president seeks to consolidate his legitimacy and emphasize that he is unwilling to back down on plans to re-annex Taiwan to the mainland.
Moreover, the trade and technology war which resurged between the United States and China, and became further tense by a visit to Taiwan made in August by the speaker of the US House of Representatives, as well as after the US signed the Chips and Science Act into law to deprive China from domestically developing advanced chips and semiconductors. The law was associated with US economic sanctions on Chinese advanced-technology technology firms.
Outcomes of the Congress
Some 2300 delegates were brought together by the key congress, set to chart up China’s policies in the coming years. It can be stressed that the Congress sought to lay stress on the following important points:
1. Xi’s grip on the state:
On October 23, in the first plenary session of the congress, President Xi Jinping was elected secretary-general of the Communist Party for a third term, which means he will stay in power as president until March 2027. It should be noted that in 2017, President Xi amended the constitution so as to be allowed to remain as president beyond the two-terms, which effectively give him a mandate to continue as president for life as long as he maintains his domestic popularity.
President Xi will also head the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), which was elected recently. It should be noted that four out of six members of the committee who are close to Xi were replaced. Three of the four removed top officials are close to President Xi. As a result, Li Qiang is expected to become China’s next prime minister in March 2023. Other new members of the committee include Ding Xuexiang, who served as President Xi’s chief of staff, and Ding Xuexiang who has ties with President Xi since the 1980s.
The Xhinua also reported that Xi appointed a new head for the Central Military Commission, which operates as the highest defense organization and oversees the general command, which means that Xi, as the head of state, is not directly overseeing the Chinese army.
Regarding internal security, President Xi, in late June, appointed Wang Xiaohong as the Minister of Public Security, giving him further control over the security establishment. Wang is Xi’s old ally and one of the leader’s loyalists, whom Xi appointed to senior positions in the Communist Party and the state thus concentrating power in his own hands.
Furthermore, at the closing session of the Congress, the Communist Party approved amendments to its charter (constitution), further cementing President Xi Jinping's power as the "core" leader of the party and his ideas as the guiding principles of China's future development. The changes indicate the growing backing he receives inside the party.
2. Responding to US protectionist policy:
China’s 20th Congress reiterated China’s willingness to continue efforts to build a strong modern state based on a two-stage development plan for the period from 2020 to the middle of this century. The next five years are crucial for building the planned state with goals including making new breakthroughs in high-quality economic development, bolstering self-reliance in the areas of science and technology.
This can be considered as China’s practical response to US policies aiming at besieging China by the Chips and Science Act and the Chip 4 initiative launched to establish an alliance between the United States, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan on semiconductors. The initiative, according to Beijing, is also aimed at depriving the Chinese economy from obtaining advanced chips used in AI and advanced military applications.
The Congress also stressed the need for making a breakthrough in creating a new development model while also continuing to pursue development as the top priority in governance; as well as for unleashing and developing productive forces, continuing reforms to develop the socialist market economy, and promoting sustained and sound economic growth. This means that Beijing continues to embrace its policy for enhancing foreign trade, while the U.S. document on national security that Washington released unveil an amended edition of globalization that seeks to impose curbs on free trade using national security and the need to secure supply chains as pretexts.
3. Rejection of Taiwan’s independence:
The Communist Party, on October 22, approved the incorporation of its rejection of Taiwan’s independence into its charter. According to the document, the party’s delegates voted to firmly oppose and contain Taiwanese independence.”
President Xi, at the opening of the Congress, said “In the face of serious provocations from separatist activities by Taiwan independence forces and interference in Taiwan affairs by external forces, we have resolutely waged a major struggle against separatism and interference, demonstrating our strong determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose Taiwan independence." He was referring to military maneuvers conducted by the Chinese army around Taiwan to show its ability to lay a siege on the island. Moreover, during these drills, the Chinese army test-fired hypersonic missiles capable of neutralizing American air carriers.
This statement also implies a response to the US national security strategy on Taiwan that reiterated the United States’ military support for the island and its independence.
Sun Yeli, the spokesperson for the CPC’s 20th National Congress, on October 15, said that China reserves the right to use force to resolve the issue of Taiwan in two cases: the first is if and when the island declares independence from China and, second, referring to the US involvement, if foreign powers opt for military intervention.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in statements made on October 18, said that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification (seizure of Taiwan) on a much faster timeline. He warned that President Xi is following a more aggressive approach, as the US Navy believes that China’s invasion of Taiwan would occur in 2023.
On the other side, Taiwan’s presidential office said Taiwan will not back down on its sovereignty or compromise on freedom and democracy, and its people clearly oppose Beijing's idea of "one country, two systems" management for Taiwan. This means that Washington continues to embrace its policy of backing Taiwan’s independence, which means that conflict reactions continue to govern relations between the two countries in the coming period.
4. Prompting China's involvement in the world order:
President Xi Jinping reiterated that his country is working on enhancing China’s opening up to the world. He also noted that his country is working on enhancing coordination and positive interaction between the world’s major powers and establishing peaceful coexistence, stability and balanced development of relations between major powers. This can be viewed as China’s implicit response to attempts by the United States to curb China’s rise through the establishment of military alliances.
It should be noted that President Xi, in his speech, explained that China is working to strengthen its trade capabilities and promote global development through the Belt and Road Initiative, maintain international stable and multi-faceted economic and trade relations. This indicates China’s willingness to establish balanced economic relations, which can be seen as a response to accusations by the United States that Beijing is using the “debt trap” diplomacy to pull vulnerable countries deeper into debt to take over their strategic assets and natural resources when they cannot pay.
Moreover, China reiterates that the Belt and Road Initiative is part of its firm belief in backing regional patterns, which also benefits China’s security, economic and development interests and its quest for resources and stronger geopolitical interests to counter challenges posed by growing US and Western influence which threatens China’s interests and global stature.
5. Rejection of United States’ unipolar influence:
China opposes the United States’ global unipolar dominance, especially after the US began to work on establishing anti-China military alliances in South East Asia, as well as American interference in China’s internal affairs through Taiwan and Hong Kong.
That is why China insists on continuing efforts to further bolster its global role and counter threats from the US, while at the same time exercising a high degree of self-restraint. This was evidenced in China’s rejection of sliding into a military show-off over Taiwan, despite provocative statements from both the self-ruled island and the United States.
Xi’s continued rule would mean he would continue his efforts to further promote China’s stature in the world order as well as to work towards reunification with Taiwan either through peaceful means, or coercive military power as a last resort. Because of Taiwan’s huge economic importance, Beijing’s seizure of the island will further boost China’s economic and military rise at the expense of the United States.
In conclusion, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is a historic tipping point for the Chinese regime, especially after President Xi succeeded in further consolidating his internal grip and securing a third term in power. This means that Beijing will continue to work on plans to achieve military and economic rise, will not back down on backing globalization as well as its involvement in foreign economies through the Belt and Road Initiative. As a result, tensions will generally dominate relations between Beijing and Washington, especially because the United States continue to reject China’s plans to reunify Taiwan with the mainland for geostrategic considerations, including that annexation of Taiwan will play into the hands of China’s plans to rise as a major global power and even speed up Beijing’s efforts to achieve economic growth to surpass the US economy.
