After Tunisia’s parliamentary elections, held on December 17, 2022, and January 29, 2023, it can be said that President Kais Saied has achieved a significant part of the political and constitutional course that he promised to follow as part of political reforms and restoration of institutional functions. A key achievement for Saied was re-arranging the parliament to align it with his general perception of political work away from the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Ennahda Movement, which has dominated the political scene since 2011.
Stage of Accountability
Remarkably, although the recent legislative elections were questioned and criticized by Ennahda and the so-called National Salvation Front - which includes Ennahda and old-time allies, President Saeid’s determination was not weakened, nor was he forced to look for understanding or compromise with these opponents. That is because he believes that the low turnout of the elections was not the result of dissatisfaction with his policies but with the parliament, whose reputation and status deteriorated significantly among citizens. He also believes that Tunisians are more interested in holding accountable those involved in the deterioration across the country.
After the parliamentary elections, it was clear that the president was unwilling to stand idly by after he succeeded in laying the foundations of a new parliament overcoming all obstacles. The new parliament will assume office in the coming weeks, and the state will move from purging its institutions from Brotherhood figures and loyalists to bringing to accountability all those involved in the numerous crimes committed over the past decade. Recently, a number of political figures from various parties, all of whom oppose President Saeid and work to undermine his plans, were arrested.
The most prominent figure of those was Noureddine Bhiri, former justice minister and the third-in-command in the Ennahda Movement, who was arrested on dozens of charges, including involvement in and supporting terrorism. Others include Khayam Turki, a former finance minister in the “troika” government who is facing corruption charges in Tunisia and abroad and collaborating with foreign organizations against the country, and Kamel Eltaief, an influential businessman and former confidant of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Although no apparent links can be seen between the three figures, statements by President Saeid and leaks show that they are being questioned for coordinating, collaborating, and distribution of roles. The two politicians were accused of plotting with foreign organizations, governments, and embassies against Tunisia’s interests. Eltaief took over the economic affairs attempting to worsen the country’s overwhelming economic crisis as part of a larger plan that President Saied himself talked about in some detail in his official statements on terrorism and attempts to assassinate him. Saied accused Ennahda of standing behind the attempt in his unprecedented and unusually candid statements.
Ennahda’s Failure
The Ennahda Movement appears to be unable to undermine President Saied’s determination. Since the elections held in December, and despite the large-scale mobilization of its supporters through traditional and social media and affiliated organizations, Ennhada, as well as the Salvation Front, failed to organize any wide popular rally, unlike the Tunisian General Labour Union, which maintained its ability to mobilize Tunisians on several occasions to protest against the economic situation but not to make any political demands. This confounds Ennahda's claim that it can mobilise the public against President Saeid and his project.
While President Saied continues to carry out his plans of holding accountable those involved in political and economic corruption threatening the state and the people, Tunisians proved that they assimilated the lesson about “political Islam” and that they are not willing to give the Brotherhood another chance to make a comeback and dominate the political scene once again. Although Tunisian voters' turnout was very low in the recent legislative elections, they refused to stand behind the Ennahda Movement and take to the streets to show support for it. Rather they expressed support for the principle of accountability and uncovering cases covered up by Ennahda over the past decades thanks to its control of the state and institutions. In response, President Saeid worked on putting an end to this dominance using various measures, including removing and replacing the involved officials and continuing judicial and administrative investigation and questioning dozens of suspects from all levels, including top figures such as prominent businessman Kamel Eltaief.
Recent polls revealed shocking numbers that were criticized by some political parties because they undermine opposition. A few days after the elections, a survey conducted by the Sigma Conseil Foundation showed that more than 80% of Tunisians were willing to cast the ballot in the presidential elections. The survey caused an uproar in Tunisia, and opponents of President Saeid accused the Sigma Conseil Foundation of manipulating the results to achieve personal gains and of being loyal to the ruling regime.
In mid-February 2023, Emrhod Consulting conducted a presidential survey that showed that 52% of Tunisians are completely satisfied with President Saeid’s performance, which means that despite the political and economic issues facing Tunisia, a majority of citizens continue to trust Saeid and back his work.
Certainly, the results of the interrogation of figures detained by the Tunisian security forces in the past few days will uncover facts that will dash what is left of Ennahda’s hopes for making a comeback to the political scene. That is because investigations are led by judges and prosecutors who are not loyal to the movement and are not willing to serve or show allegiance to it, and also because ex-judge Bechir Akremi, who led investigations into major cases, on suspicion of covering up terrorism and corruption cases. He was later detained at a psychiatric hospital because, according to official statements, he had a “psychiatric crisis.”
To conclude, in the aftermath of the fast-paced developments in Tunisia and the failure of political parties who seized control of the country in 2011 to mobilize forces against President Saeid and the “constitutional coup” targeting him, the most powerful blow against Ennahda was not dealt only by President Saeid or his government, but from citizens. A survey conducted on February 15, 2023, by Emrhod Consulting showed that 64% of Tunisians are optimistic about the country’s future following the recent decisions and measures, including the detention of political figures and the launch of a campaign against economic corruption and monopolization, compared to 58% who showed optimism back in February 2022.
