On April 15, 2024, France, Germany, and the EU co-chaired an international humanitarian conference, one year after the civil war broke out in Sudan. The conference aimed to address the catastrophic conditions faced by Sudanese civilians and raise $4.1 billion, as appealed for by the United Nations, to meet the humanitarian needs of citizens affected by the war and support those who have fled to neighboring countries. However, even if these funds are raised, they will be of little value if humanitarian aid continues to be stuck at Sudan's sea ports and border crossings due to the ongoing fighting across the country. The capital Khartoum has suffered significant destruction, with over 15,000 deaths reported and nine million people displaced. Additionally, approximately 25 million people are experiencing food insecurity. According to numerous humanitarian organizations, the current situation in Sudan is one of the most dangerous humanitarian emergencies in the world.
This article emphasizes the need to integrate both humanitarian and political strategies in order to effectively address the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Additionally, it highlights the significance of establishing an Arab-African bloc to bring an end to the war.
Humanitarian Track
Large parts of critical infrastructure have been disabled or completely destroyed in many conflict-hit areas across Sudan. Farmers have been forced to abandon their agricultural lands, and the prices of basic foodstuffs have risen by over 80%. A United Nations report released in February 2024 accuses both warring parties of committing war crimes, including attacks on civilian targets such as hospitals, markets, and refugee camps. Since the fighting broke out in mid-April last year, more than 3,000 humanitarian organizations, including 110 foreign ones, have ceased working in Sudan.
The Paris conference had two main objectives. Firstly, it aimed to raise funds to address the humanitarian crisis in Sudan and its neighboring countries. Secondly, it called on the conflicting parties to cease hostilities and ensure safe access to humanitarian aid. This approach underscores the interconnectedness of political and humanitarian efforts in tackling complex crises like the one in Sudan.
It is important to note that this conference should not be confused with a previous international summit held in Paris in May 2021, which focused on supporting democratization in Sudan. Despite the support provided during that summit, Sudan's transitional process was hindered by the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This demonstrates the fluidity, complexity, and unpredictability of the situation in Sudan, emphasizing the ongoing need for international engagement and support to address the evolving challenges facing the country.
Political Track
There is an urgent need for a summit to address the conflict in Sudan and its external drivers. The summit should include various powers, such as allies, neighboring countries, and adversaries, all of whom have been impacted by the war in Sudan. Diplomatic talks should involve parties that are already taking concrete actions, both directly and indirectly, to shape the outcome in a way that satisfies their interests on the ground.
It is widely understood that having an unstable or divided state the size of Sudan in the heart of the African Horn, on the shores of the Red Sea, is not in anyone's long-term interest. Therefore, international and regional efforts are necessary to halt the Sudanese conflict and prevent it from spilling over into the wider region.
While Washington's influence may have waned, it still retains the power of action and persuasion. President Joe Biden's administration seems to have realized that the time is ripe to use this influence to build a diplomatic alliance. A diplomatic alliance can help contain the Sudanese conflict, halt arms flows, and send a message that the only way forward lies in negotiations and a peaceful solution. However, it is unlikely that either of the warring parties will initially respond to external pressures. Each may even completely ignore them if sincere efforts are not made to prevent the intervention of some international actors who often operate outside the international order.
The path to ending the conflict in Sudan is expected to be long, as achieving civilian governance and democratic elections may seem more like daydreams than serious aspirations. It is unfortunate that on the first anniversary of this war, the goals have become considerably more modest. These goals include slowing the pace of war, halting arms supplies, increasing humanitarian resources, reaching desperate populations, and avoiding the worst scenarios in Sudan. However, achieving these modest goals is crucial as it helps to buy time and create space for tougher negotiations to end the war, establish a new transitional rule, and rebuild the country. The international community must ensure that it is capable of initiating these talks before another year passes.
Arab-African Alliance
In May 2023, the Jeddah Peace Initiative, supported by Saudi Arabia and the United States, failed to deliver a ceasefire or truce that would guarantee humanitarian access to areas devastated by the conflict. This failure can be attributed to the warring parties' inability to honor their commitments and the lack of involvement of effective civil forces and other influential regional stakeholders in Sudan. As a result of the failure of the Jeddah peace talks, the United States changed its stance and appointed a new Special Envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello, on February 26, 2024. This change indicates a recognition that the strategy of separating the political track from the ceasefire track has proven to be ineffective.
The new approach, to be unveiled by the Jeddah platform during peace talks scheduled to resume on April 18, 2024, represents a form of Arab-African unity supported by American and Western backing. This can be outlined as follows:
1- Both Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are expected to participate in the Jeddah peace talks. This comes after their joint efforts in previous meetings held in Manama, Bahrain in January 2024. These meetings brought together representatives of the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces. It is worth noting that Cairo demonstrated its active involvement by hosting General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), as well as Abdalla Hamdok, the former Prime Minister and head of the Coordination of Civilian Democratic Forces (Taqaddum).
2- On January 17, 2024, the African Union appointed three prominent African figures to its High-Level Panel on the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the African Union High Representative for Silencing the Guns, was appointed as the panel's chair. Speciosa Wandira Kazibwe, the former vice president of Uganda, and Francisco Caetano Jose Madeira, Special Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for Somalia and Head of AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), were appointed as members.
The committee's mandate is to engage in a comprehensive process with all Sudanese stakeholders and regional and international actors, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the United Nations, and the Arab League. Their goal is to ensure a swift restoration of peace and stability in Sudan.
3- On the political front, there is now a stronger emphasis on pro-democracy civil forces that emerged during the uprisings that resulted in the removal of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Previously, more attention was given to elite groups associated with the warring factions in some capacity.
In conclusion, the Paris conference on Sudan serves as a crucial step in raising global awareness about a forgotten crisis and mobilizing resources to address the catastrophic conditions faced by Sudanese civilians. However, the effectiveness of humanitarian aid depends on successfully ensuring safe access to affected populations amidst the ongoing conflict. Therefore, it is important to prioritize the negotiated political track that includes all major stakeholders, including regional and international powers, to address the underlying drivers of this conflict and find suitable resolutions. In this context, the Jeddah platform, with the participation of both Egypt and the UAE and the representation of both the African Union and IGAD, is likely to be more inclusive and representative than ever before.
