On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement, brokered by China, to restore diplomatic relations. This was followed by agreements with Iraq and the UAE, indicating a positive shift towards improved relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors. While it is the responsibility of foreign ministries to negotiate such agreements, Admiral Ali Shamkhani of Iran's Supreme National Security Council played a significant role, leading Western media to describe him as a key figure in the process of rapprochement between Iran and Arab nations. There is growing curiosity about why Shamkhani has taken the lead in managing Iran's relations with Arab countries, as well as the implications of his involvement.
Signs of the Rise of Shamkhani
Shamkhani's recent reemergence as a key figure in Iranian foreign policy has made him one of the most influential figures both within Iran and abroad. The following are some of the significant indicators of his rise in Iran's foreign policy towards the region:
1- The Saudi-Iranian Agreement
Shamkhani played a crucial role in leading talks with the Saudis in Beijing from March 6-10, resulting in the historic agreement to restore diplomatic relations between the two long-time rivals within two months. He also facilitated the activation of the security agreement signed in 2001 and the trade and economic agreement signed in 1998. Shamkhani's appointment as a negotiator reflects the confidence placed in him by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as a seasoned military and intelligence figure with experience in dealing with regional crises.
2- Iran’s Relations with the UAE
Shamkhani visited the UAE on March 16, 2023, to meet with senior Emirati officials. During the visit, he announced that an agreement had been reached to facilitate trade between the two countries using the UAE currency. As a result, the Iranian ambassador is expected to return to Abu Dhabi soon, following the Emirati ambassador's return to Tehran in September 2022.
3- Coordination with Iraq
On March 19th, Shamkhani and the Iraqi National Security Advisor, Qasim al-Araji, signed a security agreement to coordinate efforts to protect the shared borders between the two countries. This agreement came amidst Iran's accusations against opposition Kurdish armed groups in the Kurdistan region of Iraq of smuggling weapons and military equipment across the border into Iranian territory. Additionally, an agreement was reached between the two countries to establish a specific mechanism for paying Iran for imported gas.
Motivation
Iran’s supreme leader supervises the country’s foreign policy run, among other institutions, by the foreign ministry, the Supreme National Security Council, the Expediency Council, the Quds Force, the extraterritorial arm of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the office of the supreme leader, also known as Beit Rahbari. However, Shamkhani was chosen to lead the process of restoring and mending relations with Iran’s neighbouring countries. Choosing Shamkhani can be attributed to the following reasons:
Iran's foreign policy is supervised by the Supreme Leader, who oversees several institutions, including the foreign ministry, the Supreme National Security Council, the Expediency Council, the Quds Force, and his office known as Beit Rahbari. However, Ali Shamkhani was appointed to lead the process of restoring and improving relations with Iran's neighboring countries. Several reasons can be attributed to his selection:
1- Shamkhani's Arab descent and extensive experience in the region:
Shamkhani was born to an Iraqi family in the city of Ahvaz in Iran's Khuzestan province, which is home to a significant Arab minority. As a native Arabic speaker and with previous experience in dealing with regional countries, he has been involved in signing important agreements. In 2000, when he was the Defense Minister under former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, Shamkhani made a historic visit to Saudi Arabia to improve relations between the two countries. This visit led to the signing of a security agreement, and Shamkhani received an honorary medal from the then Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Additionally, Shamkhani played a crucial role in settling political crises in Iraq in 2014 and 2020. Khamenei chose him to break the impasse with Iran's long-time rival and lead efforts to move forward with Arab countries due to his extensive experience in the region.
On the other hand, Shamkhani's assumption of several high-ranking roles in the Iranian military and intelligence agencies has made him fully aware of Iran's regional strategy. This strategy aims to remove foreign forces and American and Western influence from regional countries, and to counter Israeli threats against Iran.
2- Belonging to the reformist movement:
Shamkhani is considered one of the figures associated with the reformist movement. Unlike the conservatives and fundamentalists who adopt a more aggressive ideology-driven stance based on exporting the Iranian revolution through extraterritorial proxies to undermine the security and stability of neighbouring countries, the reformist movement is better known for pursuing a less severe approach to dealing with Iran’s neighbours.
Perhaps this is what made Iran’s reformists, as well as Arab countries, to feel relieved at Shamkhani's appointment as head of the Supreme National Security Council in 2013 to replace his hardline predecessor, Saeed Jalili, with some satisfaction. That is, the Iranian supreme leader appointed Shamkhani to the new role to achieve two goals. First, at the external level, Shamkhani is an acceptable figure for regional countries. At the internal level, the appointment of Shamkhani came as an attempt to appease the reformist movement, especially amidst growing criticism of the regime following the recent popular protests across Iran. Furthermore, Shamkhani has links to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the fundamentalist movement, which overall makes him a widely accepted figure.
3- Iran’s desire to accelerate the de-escalation:
Khamenei's choice of Shamkhani also indicates the Iranian leader's desire to speed up the process of restoring relations with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. The talks with Riyadh over security and intelligence issues have lasted more than two years, and were overseen by the ministry of foreign affairs. However, the talks did not result in any significant breakthrough, which, according to Iranian sources, prompted Khamenei to summon his team to discuss ways of speeding up the whole process and to appoint Shamkhani to this new role to achieve this goal. In this context, Shamkhani, during his meeting with Qatar's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalifa, in Tehran on March 27, 2023, confirmed that "development of all-out cooperation with neighbouring countries is Iran's top priority in foreign relations."
Three Implications
The appointment of Shamkhani to lead Iran’s efforts to restore and strengthen Iran’s relations with Arab countries indicates important implications explained here as follows:
1- Tehran’s desire to show seriousness in opening up to Arab neighbours:
The Iranian regime sought to show its seriousness in its efforts to open up to regional countries by directly assigning this task to Shamkhani, who heads the Supreme National Security Council, considered as a stable institution of the Iranian regime that is not affiliated with the government. This might add greater stability and continuity to the agreements signed with Saudi Arabia and other countries, where the regime itself is the guarantor of the implementation of the obligations under these agreements. Involved regional countries do not see sufficient guarantees from the government of Ebrahim Raisi, and are not confident it would continue under a new presidential term.
Additionally, and given Iran’s previous experience, the supreme leader also appointed Ali Larijani, former speaker of the parliament, as top negotiator with China, where his efforts led to the signing of the 25-year agreement between the two countries. Sources noted that Beijing insisted on conducting direct communication with Khamenei about the signing of the agreement and in doing so bypassed the government of former president Hassan Rouhani.
2- Lack of full confidence in the Iranian foreign ministry:
Commenting on Shamkhani’s regional tours, Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, denied any disagreement over state institutions charting the country’s foreign policy, and even emphasized that the efforts are being coordinated between all involved institutions under the supervision of the president. Yet, tasking the Supreme National Security Council with de-escalation of tensions in the region indicates that the ruling regime in Tehran might have reached the conclusion that the foreign ministry team is not sufficiently effective to strike a sustainable agreement, and that a more efficient institution i.e. the Supreme National Security Council, and a veteran politician i.e. Shamkhani, should be assigned to the task.
Arman-e-Melli, a newspaper affiliated with the reformist movement, attributed the selection of the Supreme National Security Council to replace the foreign ministry to the regime’s desire to eliminate the negative impact wreaked by the foreign ministry on Iran’s diplomatic relations and the rest of the world over the past years.
3- Possible transfer of powers over the nuclear issue to the to the Supreme National Security Council:
The emergence of Shamkhani and the Supreme National Security Council at the forefront of Iran's diplomatic movements is likely to lead to the transfer of powers over nuclear negotiations from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to this council again. This was previously done during the tenure of former Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who was tasked with initiating nuclear talks with the West in Oman after the council failed to handle the issue. What strengthens this hypothesis is that there is increasing talk about a possible and imminent change in the composition of the Iranian nuclear negotiating team, especially after one of the top negotiators, Ali Bagheri Kani, was excluded from talks conducted by the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, during his visit to Tehran on March 3, 2023.
In conclusion, the selection of Shamkhani to head the process of de-escalation and restore and enhance relations with Arab countries does indicate the Iranian regime’s desire to send reassurances to involved parties that Iran is serious and can guarantee the implementation of its obligations. This comes after a wall of distrust built up between Arabs and Iran over the past years. Although it is too early to assess how serious Tehran is about honouring its commitment to agreements, and given that the restoration of diplomatic relations and the signing of agreements with involved countries does not mean a comprehensive solution to all issues between Iran and its Arab neighbours is already in place, it is not possible to deny that the new role of Shamkhani and the Supreme National Security Council has been instrumental in making a breakthrough in one of the most complicated issues of Iran’s foreign policy.
