The Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum commenced in Beijing, China, on Thursday, May 30, 2024, with significant Arab participation, including some at the summit level. The frequent visits of Arab leaders to China and their active involvement in such political forums have become a norm, no longer sparking discussions or questions. This shift contrasts with the period prior to Chinese President Xi Jinping's announcement of the global "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013, coinciding with the shift in the American strategy in the Middle East towards the Indo-Pacific region.
This week, Beijing is playing host to a delegation of prominent Arab leaders along with high-level representatives from several other Arab countries. The visiting dignitaries include His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, and Tunisian President Kais Saied. Accompanying them is the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit.
It is evident that the Arab gathering carries significant political messages, particularly considering its coincidence with the common challenges faced by the world and the Middle East region, notably the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, each participating party, be it China or the Arab countries, has distinct goals for the forum.
Upon observing this Arab-Chinese assembly, it becomes evident that it carries significant political implications, particularly considering its alignment with the current global and Middle Eastern challenges, which include the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, it is essential to consider the respective objectives of both China and the Arab nations in convening this forum.
Mutual Perspective
The Chinese strategic perspective on the Middle East and the Arab countries begins with their integral role in the "Belt and Road" initiative. The implementation of this initiative is closely tied to strategic relations with the Gulf countries, representing a crucial aspect of the Chinese strategy in balancing the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific regions.
In the Arab world, China is primarily seen as being focused on economic and investment aspects in its relations with Middle Eastern countries. This actually aligns with Beijing's permanent and declared strategy, which avoids interference in other countries' internal affairs. This differs from the approach of the United States, which is a point of contention in the Arab world. Beijing aims to foster positive interactions, particularly in the economic dimension, to contribute to resolving regional crises and issues. However, this belief may pose a significant challenge for China, despite its success in mediating the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran as per the March 2023 agreement.
This strategy of choice by China can be comprehended as it stems from a pragmatic viewpoint, widely prevalent in current international politics, particularly among Arab countries participating in the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum. China exercises caution in fully immersing itself in Middle Eastern affairs, recognizing their intricate and interconnected nature. It acknowledges the difficulty of resolving these complex issues without proactive involvement from the concerned countries themselves.
Beijing is keenly aware of the extensive American presence in the Middle East, which spans over seven decades. It also understands the dynamics of Arab relations, particularly with the Gulf, and the United States. This awareness leads Beijing to approach any involvement in these relations or regional issues with caution, at least in the near future. For a global competitor like China, prioritizing the economic aspect without considering the need for a robust military force to defend its interests may seem illogical.
Different Actions
Historically, Arabs have not been known to take collective diplomatic action, except within two frameworks:
1- League of Arab States: This organization serves as the platform for joint Arab action, allowing the expression of their collective voice on issues of mutual concern.
2- Regional Blocs: Geographically contiguous countries have formed regional blocs, with the Gulf Cooperation Council being the most significant. These movements abroad are typically driven by political goals, often executed cautiously to preempt potential American reactions.
However, the recent Arab engagement with China, exemplified by the visit of leaders from four Arab countries, signifies a departure from the norm and heralds a new reality. Several distinctive aspects of this shift can be delineated as follows:
1- Arabic coordination: The four Arab countries whose leaders are visiting Beijing this week are members of the League of Arab States. Even though they belong to two different geographical regions, the UAE and the Kingdom of Bahrain are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, while Egypt and Tunisia are Arab and African countries. This highlights the evolving factors driving Arab coordination. While language and history have traditionally been the main drivers, it is evident that other priorities with national dimensions have emerged, aligning with each country's interests.
2- Economic precedence: In addition to the Gaza war, the economic dimension takes precedence this time. While China remains focused on economic development, Egypt and Tunisia currently prioritize economic reforms internally. Both countries have reform programs in place with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Moreover, their governments may seek to leverage the ambitious Chinese initiative for increased mutual investments worldwide.
3- Emirati balance: The UAE's distinctiveness among the four participating countries in the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum summit lies in its unique vision characterized by balance, objectivity, and diversity in its relations with the United States of America, the Russian Federation, and China. Simultaneously, it has been able to achieve its interests, goals, and preserve its national gains. This Emirati vision has evolved as a result of extensive experiences with the policies of various American administrations. It has become crucial to establish a balanced approach with all countries, particularly those vying for global influence and regional powers.
This Emirati vision has manifested in various instances, notably when the country resisted American pressure in the UN Security Council to vote against Russia due to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict, during the UAE's presidency of the Security Council. Throughout this term, the Emirati diplomacy played a pivotal role in the successful leadership of the Council and in maintaining amicable relations with all parties. Prior to this, the hesitation on the part of the United States to extend anticipated support to the UAE in response to the Houthi attacks in January 2022 was evident.
The various positions held by the UAE have played a pivotal role in shaping the current UAE vision. These positions have greatly influenced the country's political and diplomatic strategies. The UAE has actively pursued balanced and strategic relations with Russia, China, and the United States, ensuring that no single party is favored over another. This approach is designed to primarily advance the interests of the state while also serving Arab and international interests. Central to this vision is the commitment to maintaining international and regional stability and security, reflecting the core values of the Emirati leadership.
4- Bahraini activity: The Kingdom of Bahrain has recently shown remarkable diplomatic activity, with King Hamad bin Isa making impactful statements during his visit to Russia last week, signaling a desire to bolster Gulf and Arab action. The current visit to China marks the second international trip by the King of Bahrain to countries competing with the United States in less than two weeks. Both Russia and China are leading vigorous efforts to reshape the international system, which is still predominantly dominated by the United States.
Key Messages
The significant participation of leaders from four Arab countries in China during the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum highlights several important outcomes of collaborative Arab efforts, which can be summarized as follows:
1- The Arab countries have reached a consensus on a unified stance concerning the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip. This was articulated by four Arab leaders and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States during the opening of the Arab-Chinese Cooperation Forum on May 30, 2024. They emphasized the imperative to cease the hostilities in Gaza and actively pursue a peaceful resolution for the Middle East region by implementing the two-state solution. Additionally, they acknowledged the constructive role played by countries like China in bolstering regional stability, particularly in light of the evolving Arab-Chinese relations. President Xi, in response, expressed China's readiness to collaborate with Arab nations in addressing pertinent issues and conflicts, thereby contributing to the attainment of long-term peace and stability.
2- The Arab countries have the potential to form alliances beyond their regional blocs. The key factor in international relations between countries, even those with cultural affinities, is each country's national interest. This interest may diverge from that of a neighboring country but align with that of a geographically distant one. This variability could be the contributing factor to the success of policies and initiatives in neighboring regions.
3- The Chinese approach to dealing with the Arab world significantly contrasts with that of the United States. While Washington tends to engage with individual Arab countries to maintain a strategic advantage in bilateral relations, Beijing is inclined towards engaging with the Arab nations as a unified bloc, following clear principles and mechanisms, particularly in pursuit of economic goals. This was evident during the recent Chinese summit with Arab leaders, mirroring a similar approach seen in December 2022 when Riyadh hosted three summits with China – the Chinese-Saudi summit, the Chinese-Gulf summit, and the Chinese-Arab summit.
In conclusion, it can be asserted that Arab countries have successfully navigated the challenge of over-reliance on a single strategic ally and the associated bias, while also considering their national priorities. Moreover, they have transcended the security-centric approach that used to dominate their foreign policy. Instead, they have begun to engage with a diverse set of international powers, capitalizing on the opportunities presented by the current global landscape, particularly with China's expanding global presence and its relations with all nations, including the United States. While these engagements may involve agreement, disagreement, and competition, the relationships persist, encompassing both cooperative and competitive elements.
