The influence of Generation Z youth in the electoral process is becoming increasingly evident in both developed and developing countries. While official statistics on their participation in general elections are not widely available, their impact can be seen in various instances. For example, Generation Z played a significant role in determining the outcome of the November 2020 presidential elections in the United States and the May 2023 elections in Turkey. Additionally, their involvement has led to changes in the political landscape of countries like Senegal, where the young opposition candidate, Basserou Diomaye Faye, won the presidential elections in March 2024. Furthermore, their participation has also challenged the confidence of experienced politicians and analysts in established democracies regarding the potential outcomes of general elections in countries such as Britain and the United States.

In this context, this analytical article presents indicators of the increasing influence of Generation Z on the results of general elections in several countries worldwide. It also explores the determinants of this influence and highlights the significant consequences that arise from it. Notably, the year 2024 will witness over 60 general elections, with an estimated participation of around 4 billion people. Some of the most prominent elections so far include the presidential elections in Taiwan, Indonesia, Russia, and Senegal, as well as the ongoing legislative elections in India (which started on April 19 and are expected to end on June 1). Additionally, the second half of the year will see the presidential elections in the United States, legislative elections in the United Kingdom, and the European Parliament elections.

To analyze and clarify the starting and ending points for calculating the ages of Generation Z, as well as comparing it with the preceding Millennial Generation and the following Generation Alpha, this article identifies Generation Z as those born between the mid-1990s and the end of the first decade of the 21st century, specifically from 1995 to 2010. Therefore, their ages in 2024 range from 14 to 29 years. This article also notes the existence of conflicting definitions, most notably: Canada's National Statistical Agency, which sets the start year at 1993; the American Pew Research Center, defining the period from 1997 to 2012; and the Encyclopedia Britannica, which agrees with Pew's timeframe but differs in marking the start of Generation Alpha, considering it to begin in 2010 and extend to 2025. This results in an overlap in calculating the age of the two generations.

An Increasing Role:

The increasing role of Generation Z in politics and elections is evident through several prominent indicators:

Increased youth involvement: Compared to previous generations, Generation Z is more actively involved in the political process. This involvement extends beyond domestic political issues and encompasses global concerns. For instance, in the United States, the Gaza crisis has become a priority for student movements in American universities. This issue has garnered the same level of interest as internal matters and has had an impact beyond the country's borders. Universities in France, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ireland, Mexico, Canada, Australia, and India have also shown interest in the Gaza crisis. Generation Z is increasingly engaged in leading social movements that address issues which directly affect the daily lives and interests of young people such as environmental issues, climate change, crises affecting human security, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the future of humanity.

Increased tendency to defend liberal values: The tendency to defend liberal values has increased. As a result of the climate of crisis and the desire to defend democracy, the US presidential elections in 2020 witnessed the highest rates of youth turnout since the presidential elections in 1972. Specifically, 61% of young people aged 18 to 24 years voted for President Joe Biden, while 37% voted for Donald Trump. Similarly, in the 2019 UK general election, 62% of young voters supported the Labor Party, compared to only 19% who voted for the Conservative Party.

The desire for political change and the role of social media: The desire for political change and the replacement of old elites has increased, as evidenced by discussions on social media platforms among young people and between them and older generations. The youth of this digital generation not only use these platforms to follow the news instead of traditional media, but also utilize them as tools to disseminate and direct political messages. They do so in a smooth and attractive manner by quickly sharing multimedia content, including visual and audio video clips that are usually less than one minute long. One platform that particularly stands out in this regard is "Tik Tok."The determination of these young people to bring about change is also evident in their leadership of field activities for candidates who share their belief in making a difference in their local communities. The Senegalese case serves as a clear example of this. Due to restrictions on political gatherings, young people have increasingly turned to platforms such as "X" and "WhatsApp" to guide public debate and organize events for the presidential elections in March 2024. The intensity of youth participation resulted in the victory of the opposition candidate, Basserou Diomai, who defeated Macky Sall, who had been in power for 12 years, but failed to effectively address issues such as poverty, youth unemployment, and corruption.

The majority of candidates target Generation Z: In the Indonesian presidential elections in March 2024, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto's official campaign stood out for its focus on attracting Generation Z, which was evident in his effective use of short video clips on the popular "Tik Tok" network. By presenting himself as a beloved character for Indonesians and portraying a "cute grandfather" who shares pranks and jokes on social media, he successfully dispelled the image of an alienating figure. This strategy helped him overcome previous losses in the presidential elections in 2014 and 2019 and enabled him to attract the millennial and Generation Z voters, who accounted for more than half of the 205 million voters and constituted a majority of the adult social media users (167 million). As a result, he emerged victorious in the elections in the first round. The same approach was employed by US President Joe Biden's election campaign in the 2024 US presidential elections. His campaign essentially aimed to attract social media influencers, collaborate with them, and establish a strong presence on Tik Tok.

Impact Parameters:

In light of the previous indicators, factors affecting the voting behavior of Generation Z can be identified as follows:

Size of the Generation Z segment: The number of young people in the age group of 14 to 21 years in the member states of the United Nations amounts to 1.978 billion people (as shown in Table 1). This accounts for approximately 20% of the total world population, which is expected to reach 8 billion people in January 2024 according to estimates by the Population Section of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in its 2022 report on population projections and expected changes for the year 2024. However, the size of this segment varies significantly across geographical regions, with the lowest level observed in the countries of Europe and North America, and the highest level observed in sub-Saharan African countries due to population growth.

Table (1): Number of Generation Z Youth in UN Member States in 2024

Source: The author based the information on data from The United Nations Population Prospects Report for 2022.

With the variation in the size of the Generation Z segment between different regions of the world, it is noted that the number of those belonging to this generation who have the right to vote in general elections is reduced to 1.35 billion young men and women in the age group from 18 to 29 years. This is because the majority of countries in the world set the voting age for their citizens at 18 years, with specific exceptions. These exceptions include Malta, Austria, Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, and Nicaragua, which have lowered the minimum voting age to 16 years. Greece also lowered the voting age to 17 years in 2016. Additionally, a number of countries have recently moved to reduce the voting age in the European Parliament elections to 16 instead of 18. For example, Belgium will implement this change in 2022 and Germany in 2023.

The voting behavior of GenZ: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in understanding the voting behavior of young people, especially among "newcomers" - those who are voting for the first time and whose voting trends are unknown. It is important to recognize that political preferences can vary over time, depending on the urgency of issues related to democracy and freedoms versus economic concerns such as living costs, inflation rates, housing availability, and job opportunities. These factors significantly impact the well-being and quality of life for young individuals. As a result, a qualitative indicator has emerged to measure voting behavior, specifically related to youth happiness rates. The World Happiness Report for the year 2024 revealed that the happiness rates among individuals under the age of 30 have reached their lowest levels in countries like the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Western European countries. Conversely, the happiness rates have increased in Central and Eastern European countries, as well as the countries of the Soviet Union and East Asia. The decline in youth happiness has had repercussions on their political engagement, including their voter turnout and their stance on government policies compared to adults of all ages. Notably, there is a direct correlation between the decrease in youth happiness rates in the United States, which ranked 62nd in the world from 2021 to 2023, and the decline in participation rates among the late millennial generation and Generation Z (18 to 29 years old) in elections. This is evident in the lower participation of approximately 29.4 million young individuals in the 2020 US presidential elections, compared to 39.7 million individuals over the age of 65. Similarly, in the November 2022 midterm congressional elections, approximately 14.3 million young individuals (11.7%) participated, while 37 million individuals in the 65+ age group (30.4%) voted.

The intensity of political polarization . The more the elections are characterized by an increase in the degree of electoral competition and polarization among the candidates, the more young people are willing to participate and feel their ability to bring about peaceful change. In the 2020 presidential elections, which were characterized by intense electoral competition between President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden, the intensity of youth participation - although low compared to other age groups and slightly lower compared to the percentage of youth votes that President Obama received in the 2008 elections - led to the election being decided. In favor of Biden; He received 61% of the votes of young people aged 18 to 24 years, compared to 37% for Trump.

Likewise, the presidential elections in Turkey in May 2023, which witnessed sharp polarization between the conservative Islamic camp led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the secular camp led by his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, were characterized by intense youth participation. This is evident from the observation of an increase in the voting rate in the first round, which reached 88.8% of the total voters, and to 83.9% in the second round, from which the reader can infer an increase in the rates of Turkish youth voting in the elections, especially with their percentage reaching the age group of 15 to 24 years. To 15.2% of the total population in May 2022, a percentage that increases proportionally as the age of youth increases.

The changing global environment for democracy: The global landscape for democracy has undergone significant changes. Many countries experienced a surge in democratic movements following the end of the Cold War, commonly referred to as the third wave of democracy. However, recent global monitoring reports indicate a decline in democratic practices. Freedom House's 2023 report revealed a seventeen-year consecutive decline in political freedoms worldwide. Similarly, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance's annual report for 2023 highlighted a sixth consecutive year of democracy shrinking across all regions. These trends have coincided with the rise of extremist right-wing and populist movements in various European countries and within the United States.

Impact Results:

The increase in the size of the youth segment of Generation Z, and the inclusion of Generation Alpha - who were born from early 2010 until mid-2020 - in electoral lists from 2026 to 2028 will have several notable outcomes, including the following:

Searching for the best ways to increase youth integration in public life: Both democratic and authoritarian regimes are interested in finding effective strategies to enhance the integration of young people into public life, particularly in politics. The goal is to provide them with opportunities to express their interests and concerns in an organized manner, participate in decision-making processes, and prevent them from resorting to violence or joining extremist and terrorist movements, particularly in developing countries.

The trend towards including specialized youth departments in electoral campaigns: The trend of including specialized youth departments in electoral campaigns for general elections continues to grow. These departments are staffed with specialists who are trained in diagnosing youth psychology, understanding their orientations towards public issues, and predicting their behavior throughout the electoral process. One early indication of this trend occurred during the 1972 campaign of Republican candidate Richard Nixon. His campaign appointed a full-time employee to specifically target the youth demographic. Additionally, a new organization affiliated with the president was established to focus on young voters. This was done in order to engage with the new voters who were eligible to vote after the passing of the 26th Amendment to the United States Constitution, which lowered the minimum voting age from 21 to 18 years. Many of these new voters were opponents of the Vietnam War, which was a key issue for Nixon's Democratic rival at the time.

Preparedness for large-scale violence linked to falsifying election results in developing countries: The fear of large-scale violence, which may be connected to the falsification of election results in some developing countries, is a significant concern. This fear is supported by the theoretical framework developed by German sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn in the mid-1990s, as well as the work of American political scientists Gary Fuller, Jack Goldstone, and demography professor Richard Cincotta. These scholars have demonstrated a close relationship between the "youth boom" in the societal structure of developing countries and various forms of violence and political instability. According to Cincotta, unaccounted manifestations of violence are more likely to occur when the population of adolescents and adults under the age of 25 exceeds half of the society. This demographic trend aligns with the increased awareness gained through social media and the networked openness characteristic of the 21st century. It is important to note that acts of violence are not limited to developing countries. In some democratic nations, violence can arise if a populist candidate refuses to recognize the election results. For instance, on January 6, 2021, some supporters of former President Trump stormed the Capitol Building to prevent the certification of his Democratic rival Joe Biden's victory. Furthermore, in an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on May 2, 2024, President Trump hinted at his potential refusal to recognize the results of the 2024 elections if he were to be defeated, stating, "If everything is fair, I will gladly accept the results...but if not, you have to fight for the rights of the country."

In conclusion, the period from 2013 to 2024, when Generation Z began entering politics and public affairs, demonstrated the presence of a significant force operating in cyberspace and the political arena. They utilized available technology to bring about the desired change, tirelessly seeking it through various means, both explicit and implicit. One of the outcomes of their efforts has been the transformation of the political landscape in certain countries, through presidential and legislative elections, as well as attempts to depict the global youth movement across nations and regions. This necessitates decision-makers to acknowledge the characteristics of this generation and the subsequent "alpha" generation, and to work towards integrating and harnessing their energies within a democratic climate that safeguards both developing and developed countries against sudden and inappropriate acts of violence.