The sky turned an ominous shade of gray as the winds howled, and the waves rose menacingly. A young fisherman, Khalfan, stood on the shore, his heart pounding with a mix of fear and resignation. He had seen cyclones before 2021, but Cyclone Shaheen was different. Its ferocity and unexpected arrival in northern Oman were a stark reminder of the new reality Omani communities face. As Khalfan scrambled to secure his boat, he couldn’t help but think about the future of his livelihood and the unpredictable forces of nature that threatened it.
Khalfan’s story is not unique. It echoes the experiences of many Omanis who have witnessed firsthand the increasing impacts of climate change. From rising sea levels to scorching temperatures, the signs are clear: the time for action is now. As the global community prepares for COP29, Oman stands at a crossroads, needing to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. This piece delves into the findings and insights from the Oman Climate Dialogues, an initiative I spearheaded within my capacity as executive board director of the Environment Society of Oman—the only NGO in the Sultanate.
The main objective of this initiative is to raise awareness about climate change in Oman, its current and expected future impacts, and engage in a discussion on how Oman can address the issue. The dialogues served as a launchpad for recommendations from the Omani civil society to the government of Oman, ensuring that our voices are heard in shaping the nation’s climate policies.
The Current Status of Oman's Climate
As we live through what is expected to be the warmest year on record, the challenge of combating climate change becomes even more urgent and necessary. Based on the recent UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, global temperatures have increased by 1.52 °C since industrial times, with evident warming in the Arabian Peninsula region. Based on 40 years of data from the region, warming is robust and prominent, especially from 1998 onwards. The region’s climate has become warmer, precipitation has reduced, and record-level droughts have been recorded, followed by extreme conditions like summer rainfall events or more frequent tropical storms.
Despite Oman’s small contribution to global emissions of 0.2%, the country and its people have witnessed significant impacts on its atmosphere and oceans. The degree of temperature increase reached up to 1.7 °C in northern Oman, with the south of Oman increasing to 1.2 °C, which is still considered drastic. Furthermore, Oman has also witnessed a 2-3 mm rise in sea level in the last few decades, which has implications like habitat loss and degradation with additional negative repercussions on coastal livelihoods and ecosystems. One of the results of these impacts is the unfortunate increase in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Cyclone Shaheen, the most intense climate event to hit Oman in 2021, has proven that Oman is now witnessing cyclones in the northern parts of Oman whereas, previously, they were more frequently observed in the central and southern parts of the Sultanate. It is now expected that a similar cyclone may hit Omani coasts over the next 5-year period. By the end of the century, Oman can expect a 1-meter increase in sea level rise, more severe weather events, long periods of drought, and a decrease in fish stocks with temperatures exceeding the 50 °C threshold.
Climate Mitigation: Transitioning to Net Zero
As a fossil fuel-based economy, Oman is no different than its regional neighbors, who view hydrocarbons as the benefactor that uplifted the region and its people to better economic standing. However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable shift towards reducing carbon emissions across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with five out of six nations announcing their net-zero targets. Muscat is committed to this transition, aiming to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 through various technological advancements, including the development of a hydrogen-based economy. To achieve this, Oman aims to leverage its renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind, and become one of the top 10 hydrogen exporters by 2030.
Currently, Oman emits 90 million tons of CO2 equivalent per year. The country's plan to reach net-zero includes a target to reduce emissions by 7% across all sectors by 2023; showcasing a solid commitment to shifting to a greener economy and being a vital partner in the global effort to combat climate change. Achievingnet zero by 2050 will be a significant challenge as it requires transforming how we operate, consume, and commute, throughout all sectors. This should include traditional current emitters like the industrial sector, oil and gas, power, transportation, in addition to up-and-coming industries that constitute Oman’s economic diversification plan. The latter include manufacturing, logistics, fisheries, tourism, and mining.
Despite some public skepticism regarding the coexistence of energy-intensive sectors with Oman's net-zero goals, ongoing efforts under Oman’s Vision 2040 and the newly established Oman Sustainability Center are focused on detailed implementation and decarbonization plans across all sectors, both existing and new. These initiatives aim to bridge the gap between economic growth and environmental sustainability, ensuring that Oman can meet its ambitious climate targets while continuing to diversify and grow its economy.
Adaptation: Building Resilience
While reducing emissions is vital, it is important to acknowledge that emission reductions alone are not sufficient in our efforts to combat climate change. Unfortunately, the focus on achieving net-zero emissions can often overshadow other important aspects of the climate change discussion in Oman and the region. Indeed, it is crucial to prioritize biodiversity conservation and the implementation of nature-based solutions. These measures can help us capture carbon and mitigate the risks associated with climate change-related disasters. In Oman’s case, these tools are particularly important for successful adaptation to the challenges posed by climate change.
Agreeing on the framework for the “Global Goal on Adaptation” and the Glasgow pledge to double annual adaptation finance from 2025 is expected to be a key point of contention for developing nations, including Oman. It is essential that this global framework includes key performance indicators (KPIs) and a monitoring process to ensure equity. In addition to mitigation and energy transition plans, it is also pertinent for countries to implement a cross-sectoral National Adaptation Plan. The Environment Authority published its National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change, which covers strategies to address the adverse impacts of climate change on all vulnerable national sectors, including water resources, marine biodiversity and fisheries, agriculture, urban areas, tourism and infrastructure, and public health. However, the role of nature-based solutions as an integral piece of Oman's required response for climate adaptation was not mentioned.
The transplantation of over 800,000 mangrove trees along Oman's coastline since 2001, including over 3 million seeds planted is a testament to successful adaptation efforts. Mangrove trees act as major carbon sinks and protect shorelines and coasts from erosion and climate change impacts. They also provide an ideal ecosystem for fish and other marine species and offer protection for the coast as a natural barrier to the impacts of climate change. Oman is a leader in this area, and other GCC nations are seeking its expertise and knowledge to ensure their shores are protected from these impacts. By having clear guidelines on how to develop nature-based solutions, Oman has an immense opportunity to continue being a leader in this space and exporting know-how and advancing nature-based technologies in the adaptation space.
As it is well established, Oman is facing growing threats from tropical cyclones, rising temperatures, and sea levels. To prepare for and respond to these challenges, it is important to understand land use, climate patterns, water resources, and agriculture and fisheries. By doing so, it will be possible to identify and implement measures to reduce the vulnerability of communities, resources, and systems. Oman must therefore invest in adaptation measures, which are estimated to cost between 400 to 500 billion US dollars over the next few years. However, accurately measuring the cost of adaptation is challenging, and it is not feasible to expect the government to cover these costs in the future. This is because costs are expected to increase due to the severity and frequency of climate-related events. Thus, Oman must establish and secure a defined climate financing mechanism to address these challenges.
Key Recommendations from Oman Climate Dialogues
The Oman Climate Dialogue Series spotlighted the critical importance of global collaboration in tackling climate change. This series resonated deeply with the urgency of COP28’s directives, emphasizing the essential transition away from fossil fuels. The ambitious goals of tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 became a rallying cry for all involved. Among the many significant milestones discussed, the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund stood out as a pivotal initiative, aimed at supporting vulnerable countries struggling with severe climate impacts.
These dialogues were more than mere discussions; they were vibrant forums of public engagement and innovation. By bringing together stakeholders from diverse sectors—including government, industry, academia, youth and civil society—the dialogues created a dynamic platform for the exchange of ideas and the development of actionable solutions. This collective brainstorming fostered an environment where new partnerships could be forged, and existing collaborations strengthened, all in the name of enhancing climate action.
As the series progressed, it became clear that public engagement and discourse are vital components of effective climate action. The dialogues served as a catalyst for increasing awareness and fostering a sense of shared responsibility among participants. The crescendo of the series was a powerful set of recommendations from the people, meticulously crafted to reflect the voices and concerns of a broad cross-section of society. Presented to key decision-makers, these recommendations aim to influence policy and drive Oman’s commitment to combating climate change. They are presented below:
1. Adaptation is a crucial area for Oman. One severe cyclone is expected every five years in Oman from now on. Both Omani institutions and communities need to literally weather the storms by being the most prepared for such impacts. They can do so by enabling steadfast climate-proofing policies (both soft and hard), building capabilities, and fostering innovation.
2. More climate data and research mean better informed future decision-making. The existing knowledge of climate impacts on marine life is unknown, and there needs to be a baseline/benchmark for comparison purposes that allows more accurate forecasting for eight decades and beyond. For example, inundation maps would be helpful for the Ministry of Housing to avoid new developments in flood-prone areas.
3. Internal private sector funding should be considered seriously. It is wise to consider the politics often underlined behind climate change decisions of large nations and the politics involved in the patenting of new technologies. Therefore, local climate financing is through leverage or equity for clean venture building, mitigation, adaptation, or climate-proofing.
4. Improve Oman’s Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ranking. Oman is home to a significant number of scientists (including authors of the IPCC report). These capacities need to be capitalized on while improving the accessibility of Omani data through more transparency and annual reporting.
5. The inclusion of Young Omanis in decision-making is imperative. With greater awareness of sustainability priorities, which impacts employment choices, products consumes, and investment in avenues that match their values, the younger generation is an essential part of Oman’s climate policymaking.
6. Company scorecards should be tied with climate/ESG performance. Organizations in Oman should establish climate change strategies and climate risk mapping that are reviewed annually and linked with corporate targets and overall company scorecards with a larger objective of aligning with Oman’s NDC targets.
7. Collaboration is key. All sectors need to communicate with each other to establish a baseline of fundamental climate change awareness, provide inputs on crucial mitigation and adaptation initiatives, and align with Oman’s NDCs and efforts within its COP negotiation strategy.
