This article aims to examine the anticipated impacts on U.S. policy towards the Middle East if former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. It offers a forward-looking analysis of the potential "Trump 2.0" administration.
Trump's Worldview
To begin with, we should not assume that Trump’s policies, if he wins the election, will simply mirror those of his previous term (2017-2021) due to the evolving international and regional context. The United States today is fundamentally different from when Trump first took office seven years ago, as is the Middle East. Additionally, Trump himself may have evolved, and his ideas could have changed.
Moreover, a president's personality and orientation are not the sole determinants of U.S. policy; enduring national interests are safeguarded by deep state institutions. Often, the differences between presidents lie in the methods and means they use to achieve the same objectives. The positions of any U.S. president stem from their perspective on the global order, Washington’s role within it, and the critical American national interests that require protection.
When examining Trump’s worldview, two main features stand out:
1. Offensive realism approach: Trump adopts the "offensive realism" approach to international relations, which asserts that a state's primary goal is to maximize its comprehensive power, both material and non-material. It emphasizes that the essence of international relations lies in competition and conflict. According to this view, power is determined by the capabilities directly under a state's control, rather than through alliances with other states. This proactive strategy seeks to continuously and independently enhance a state's capabilities, without reliance on international balance policies.
2. Transactional approach to international relations: Trump views international relations through the lens of "deals," reflecting his background as a businessman. He approaches state governance similarly to running a company, emphasizing "profit and loss" and aiming to maximize gains. This perspective prioritizes bilateral relations and the immediate benefits of each transaction over long-term commitments to international organizations, frameworks, shared goals, interests, and values.
Middle Eastern Policies
During his campaign, Trump occasionally touched upon Middle Eastern issues in unscripted remarks, often delivered during speeches to supporters or media interviews.
1. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
If Trump wins the upcoming election, he will face the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, reignited by the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, which extended into its tenth month by July 2024. By January 20, 2025, when Trump could potentially take office, the situation remains uncertain.
Trump has been a staunch ally of Israel and maintains a close relationship with its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. During his previous term, Trump made significant moves in support of Israel: relocating the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in December 2017, recognizing the Golan Heights as part of Israel in March 2019, and dismissing the illegality of Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, contrary to traditional U.S. positions and international resolutions. Trump has not acknowledged the national and political rights of the Palestinian people, advocating instead for "economic peace" to improve living conditions through his "Deal of the Century."
His peace plan, officially titled “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People,” announced in January 2020, proposed limited self-governance for Palestinians in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. He also encouraged Arab states to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
Trump's campaign statements continue to support Israel, without calling for a cessation of the ongoing war on Gaza, halting targeting civilian facilities, or easing humanitarian aid entry. He remarked that the conflict was long-standing and suggested, “So you have a war that's going on, and you're probably going to have to let this play out.” As the conflict persisted without a clear Israeli victory, Trump, in March, urged Israel to “get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people. And that’s a very simple statement,” noting that Tel Aviv was losing global support. In April, he reiterated, "Israel is absolutely losing the PR war.”
Trump criticized pro-Palestinian protests, particularly those organized by Columbia University students in New York, praising the police for raiding and arresting the students in May. He used fear tactics to scare Americans about pro-Palestinian stances, falsely claiming that Gaza residents might relocate to American cities and towns, referencing inaccurate media reports about the Biden administration potentially accepting some Palestinians.
Trump's statements often used "Palestinian" pejoratively. In a June 27 debate with Biden, he urged Biden to let Israelis "finish the job," accusing Biden of acting "like a Palestinian," calling him a "bad Palestinian" and "weak Palestinian." He repeated this description the next day regarding Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Jewish American. When asked about supporting a Palestinian state, Trump dodged the question, citing his realism in avoiding commitment to a changing issue.
Based on his past actions, pragmatist Trump approaches international issues with a "deal-making" mindset focused on "profit and loss." If he returns to power, he will likely manage U.S. policy accordingly. Middle Eastern and Arab foreign ministries should prepare scenarios and expectations for Trump’s potential positions. Despite Israel's caution in showing preference between Trump and Biden, the ruling far-right coalition in Tel Aviv would likely feel more comfortable and assured with Trump's success, particularly regarding settlement policies and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Most Arab governments have prior experience dealing with Trump. They recall his first foreign trip after taking office was to Saudi Arabia in May 2017, where he attended three summits: the United States–Saudi Arabia summit, the United States–Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, and the Arab Islamic American Summit. Beyond the Palestinian issue, cooperation between these governments and Washington developed during his presidency.
2. The Iran dossier:
Another issue Trump will need to tackle if he wins the upcoming presidential election, is the intricate relationship with Iran. On May 8, 2018, Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, reinstating the "maximum pressure" policy. He argued that the deal failed to prevent Tehran from pursuing nuclear weapons or curbing its ballistic missile development. In contrast, the Biden administration resumed negotiations with Iran, leading to diplomatic efforts that slightly eased tensions. Notably, in August 2023, an agreement facilitated the release of several American prisoners in exchange for South Korea unfreezing Iranian assets.
During this period, Iran increased its uranium enrichment and suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Meanwhile, diplomatic relations between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries improved. In March 2023, Riyadh and Tehran announced the restoration of diplomatic ties, a move mediated by China.
Trump's campaign has been relatively silent on Iran. However, he commented on the U.S. intervention to destroy Iranian drones headed for Israel on April 14, stating, "This should never have been allowed to happen - This would never have happened if I were President!" Such a remark implies that he considers Biden's administration weak and believes it has emboldened Iran.
If re-elected, Trump will face a different landscape compared to his previous term. His primary objectives were to prevent Iran from achieving a uranium enrichment level capable of producing nuclear weapons and to halt its ballistic missile program. These objectives may now seem outdated. Additionally, his goal to stop Iran's interference in Arab affairs might be less relevant due to the recent improvement in relations between Iran and Arab countries.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran are likely to escalate, with Trump potentially intensifying sanctions on Iran. He could cite Iran's support for anti-Israel organizations and its provision of drones to Russia during the Ukraine conflict as reasons. Trump might also pressure Arab countries to refrain from strengthening ties with Tehran. Iraq could become a focal point due to its close relationship with Iran and the role of some Iraqi factions against Israel.
Trump will face significant challenges stemming from Israel's denial of Palestinian rights and its refusal to establish a Palestinian state. These issues complicate the alignment of Arab countries with U.S. pressures, especially as Iran positions itself as a supporter of Palestinian rights.
Ironically, while Iranians have elected a new reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, Americans might once again vote for Trump.
In conclusion, Trump recognizes that the U.S. is no longer the dominant player in the Middle East. China and Russia have successfully cultivated strong relationships with many of Washington's traditional allies, with Beijing emerging as the primary trading partner for numerous countries in the region. While Trump may exert pressure on Arab nations to distance themselves from China and Russia, such efforts are likely to falter. This is due to the Arab states' growing awareness of the shifting international landscape and their understanding that a unipolar world does not align with their interests. These scenarios remain speculative, as political decisions are ultimately shaped by the prevailing balance of power and interests.
