Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a private plane crash carrying ten people on board. The crash occurred in the Tver region, north of the Russian capital, on a domestic flight between Moscow and Saint Petersburg on August 23, 2023. "You come at the King, you better not miss," says the classic French proverb. Undoubtedly, the reaction to Prigozhin's killing would have been different if the Wagner founder had not rebelled against the Russian leadership last June. Prior to this rebellion and the Wagner Group's attempt to march into Moscow after controlling the city of Rostov and the southern command, Prigozhin was regarded as a Russian hero who defended Russia's prestige and sovereignty in the Ukrainian war. This was particularly the case when the Group's forces took control of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine after the fiercest and longest battles.
Many in Western intelligence services expected Prigozhin to be targeted because of what transpired during and after the rebellion. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has stated that he does not tolerate "betrayal," Prigozhin's revolt is a "stab in the back."
However, this is not the only reason for downing the commercial Embraer jet carrying Prigozhin and other Wagner officials on August 23. Some claim the plane fell free, and eyewitnesses confirmed they heard explosion sounds before it fell. This could result from ground-based anti-aircraft missiles firing at Ukrainian drones that have been active in the Moscow sky for a long time and that one of these missiles accidentally hit the plane.
Regardless of who was responsible for this incident, the departure of the founder of the Russian military group in such a manner prompted numerous questions and issued many warning signals, which can be summarized as follows:
1. Full Loyalty or Death
If the Kremlin orchestrated Prigozhin's demise in this manner, the Kremlin's master is unmistakably conveying a resounding message. There exists only one path, "unwavering loyalty or facing the gravest consequences." Furthermore, this underscores Russia's stance, as it wages a war in Ukraine, of avoiding any potential for internal strife, as might have transpired during Wagner's advance from Rostov in the southwest toward Moscow. The message confirms that the Russian leadership will not accept that some personal adventures become "pawn" in the hands of Moscow's enemies in dismantling and dividing the country and that any political or military adventurer who tries to repeat what the Wagner leader did will meet the same fate as Prigozhin.
2. No Room for the Clash of Entities
Although the Wagner leader stated during the uprising that the Russian people would see "new leadership," referring to Putin's transition, he later disputed this. Prigozhin also met with President Putin for a long time in the Kremlin. This rebellion, however, revealed a "clash of entities" within the Russian state. Prigozhin publicly criticized the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov, on numerous occasions, as well as the Russian army's military leadership of incompetence and lack of professionalism, as well as not telling Putin the truth. This formed a "negative stereotype" of Russia during the conflict, mainly that it was a country divided among its military elite. Putin even appeared as a leader who could not control the disagreements that emerged from secret chambers to the public and media.
3. Firmness in Dealing with Private Military Corporations and Adversaries
The Russian state dealing with Wagner and its leadership and transferring it to Belarus, then re-contracting with its members on Ministry of Defense conditions, confirmed the inability of any attempt to create a schism between President Putin and his Defense Minister, Shoigu.
What happened to the Wagner Group and its leader, Prigozhin, is a strong message from Putin to the rest of the private military companies involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It states that any group or company that attempts to rebel against the state or the leadership of the Russian army will be dismantled, just as Wagner and its leadership were.
Furthermore, the demise of the Wagner chief and his senior leaders demonstrates that the Russian state will be firm with everyone in the future. This is a clear message to supporters of the opposition Alexei Navalny, who are attempting to capitalize on some of the Ukrainian war's missteps. Moscow is also sending a message to some agents who work for Kyiv that it would find and punish them.
4. Eliminating "Hiding Forces"
The Group's rebellion revealed to the Russian leadership that "hiding forces" were working against the Kremlin and Putin personally. Prigozhin's departure coincided with the dismissal of a number of Russian army leaders sympathetic to him, led by General Sergey Surovikin, Commander of the Air Force. Surovikin is also claimed to be under investigation, and everyone who supported Wagner during the revolt is under house arrest. Since last June, the Russian apparatus has followed all of these forces uncovered by the attempted revolt.
While Russia is concerned with the war in Ukraine, several Western media sites, like the French newspaper Le Figaro, claim that the Kremlin has begun to purge any figures who could commit "treason" of any kind. A number of incidents were mentioned in this context in 2022, including the sudden death of Leonid Shulman, CEO of Gazprom, on January 30. A second Gazprom executive, Alexander Tyulakov, the company's chief financial officer, died unexpectedly on February 25, the day after the conflict began. Vasily Melnikov, a Russian billionaire, was also believed to have committed suicide on March 24 in his apartment in Novgorod. The death of Vladislav Avayev, former vice president of Gazprom, on April 18 sparked further controversy. Alexander Subbotin, a former top official at the Russian oil company Lukoil, also died in the same month.
5. Strong Return to the Ukraine War
Following the mutiny of Prigozhin and his Wagner colleagues, approximately 30,000 members of the Group left the battlefront in Ukraine. However, following the killing of Prigozhin and his first assistant, Dmitry Utkin, as well as other senior Wagner leaders, the Kremlin can restore the Wagner Group to be the difficult number in battles with Ukraine. This could help it repeat the same success scenario that the Group carried out in Bakhmut and Soledar, further helping Russia repel the remainder of the Ukrainian counterattack that began on June 4. The message is clear: Moscow will not accept any strategic setback in Ukraine, and it does not want any individual or military group diverting its efforts away from this goal.
6. A Triumphant Return to Africa
All indicators point to Russia continuing to invest in the Wagner Group in Africa after proving successful in strengthening Russia's footprint in the African continent. Perhaps the slogans "Down with France" and "Long live Russia" uttered by demonstrators in Niger recently are the strongest proof of Moscow's welcome there. The Group's members can be found in various African countries and may spread to other countries that did not cooperate with Western sanctions imposed on Moscow. Russia is sending a message to its Western rivals that it is here to stay and will grow its influence in Africa, with moves underway to refurbish the Wagner Group to make it loyal to the Kremlin.
7. A Warning to the West
This warning is addressed to the United States and NATO. It is related to the fact that Russia may face difficult situations, such as the Russian army losing huge regions in Kharkiv in September 2022 or a brief uprising, such as the Wagner Group witnessed last June. However, it remains a cohesive state, contrary to Western media speculation that Russia's weariness in the Ukrainian war will eventually lead to its collapse and fragmentation into multiple states. Moscow is also sending a message to William Burns, the Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, who stated last July that "the dissatisfaction within Russia due to the war in Ukraine represents a great opportunity to recruit spies that only occurs once in a generation, and that they will not let this opportunity go to waste."
8. Nations do not Abandon History
A lot has been happening in Russia: overcoming the stage of political and security uncertainty following the former Soviet Union's collapse, succeeding in the first and second Chechen wars, achieving its goals in the war with Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008, and recently dealing with the Wagner Group's rebellion and the departure of its leadership. This underscores Moscow's message to NATO and the West that it may face difficulties and storms, but it will emerge stronger than ever.
