Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is also the head of Central Military Commission, told the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held from October 16 to October 22, to speed up efforts to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to transform it into a world-class military. He also underscored the need for winning regional wars.
Disrupted Security
President Jinping’s call on the army to speed up modernization came amid regional and international contexts. These can be outlined as follows:
1- Border disputes with neighbours
Among the most significant risks for China’s foreign security environment in 2022 are border disputes with neighbouring countries, especially those allied with the United States. China is in dispute with Japan over a group of islands in South China Sea and East China Sea, and India over land borders.
2- Implications of the Russia-Ukraine war
Western countries accuse China of providing economic support to Russia after Beijing refused to back Western sanctions against Moscow. Although Washington confirmed that Beijing did not provide military support to Moscow, some western powers accused China of seeking to take advantage of the West’s preoccupation with the war to prepare for a military invasion of Taiwan and restore the island to mainland control. The United States triggered the crisis by sending then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in early August. On the other hand, the West is taking advantage of Russia’s failure in its war on Ukraine to intimidate China away from occupying Taiwan to spare the Island a similar fate as Ukraine.
3- United States’ support for Taiwan’s independence
Statements made by US President Joe Biden over the past two years reveal doubts about Washington’s commitment to the principle of “One China”, especially after he suggested that the US military would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack from China. The statement prompted China to stage an unprecedented military exercise in the Strait of Taiwan and around the island. China also emphasized that it was prepared to take any measures to defend its sovereignty. It also issued a white paper on Taiwan, in which it reiterated that it would not rule out military means as the last resort to achieve the island’s unification with the mainland.
4- US attempts to encircle China
Washington and its allies made security and military moves in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean to surround China. Most importantly, AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced on September 15, 2021 for the Indo-Pacific region, under which US and the UK will help Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This will enable Australia to monitor China’s movements in Southeast Asia. China rejected the pact claiming it violates the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Additionally, Washington revived the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), commonly known as the Quad, a strategic security dialogue between the United States, Australia, India and Japan, as a major mechanism to mobilize its regional allies as part of a strategy to contain China in Asia and the Pacific Ocean.
5- Imposing military siege on China
British Ministry of Defence said China had hired up to 30 former Royal Air Force pilots to work in China on salaries of around USD 270000 a year to train its air force and to pass on their expertise to the Chinese military.
Australia too is investigating China’s recruitment of ex-pilots.
China rejected the accusations denying any knowledge of reports about contracts with British pilots. The development cannot be separated from London’s recent attempts to promote the perception that China poses threats to Britain’s national security.
Indicators of Modernization and Development
Over the past decade i.e., since President Xi Jinping assumed office in March 2013, China made leaps and bounds in modernizing its army. The Chinese army became the world’s third strongest out of a list of 139 countries. This can be outlined as follows:
1- Launching a plan for military reforms
The Chinese president wants to achieve the goal of making the PLA fully modern and “informatized” force by 2035, paying special attention to shifting towards “intelligentized warfare,” defined by the application of artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced technologies, driving additional campaign development across the PLA.
China has the largest navy in the world, beating the US Navy terms of the number of ships. It developed and built three air carriers, already in service. These are Liaoning, Shandong and Fujian. Fujian entered into service in June 2022 and is considered a massive leap in China’s naval capabilities as the second-generation ship features cutting-edge electromagnetic catapults.
The Chinese navy has 250000 active personnel, six nuclear tactical submarines, 48 tactical conventional submarines, 80 destroyers and frigates as well as 209 coastal fighters and patrol aircraft.
China’s air force is the largest in East Asia and the world’s third largest. China has hundreds of long-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, thousands of fighters, 395000 active personnel, 2517 fighters and 714 combat helicopters.
Last year, the PLA launched a hypersonic glide vehicle which circled Earth at a speed of 6,173 km/h. China also unveiled YU-20, a long-range tanker plane with advanced mid-air refuelling capabilities. Additionally, China is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, which will result in improving its nuclear missile capability.
Currently, China possesses 350 nuclear heads, double the size of its inventory during the Cold War. The Pentagon estimates that China could have 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027.
China’s PLA Ground Force has 975000 personnel, 5850 main battle tanks, 6950 armoured personnel carriers and 6194 artillery guns. In addition to upgrading its three main services, the PLA created the Strategic Support Force, or PLASSF, a new and relatively small branch specialized in developing technological weapons.
2- Increasing the defence budget
This came as part of the military reforms. The Chinese government’s annual report released in March 2022, the country’s defence spending is set to rise by 7.1%, faster than the 6.8% increase in 2021.
According to the report, spending will rise by 7.1% to 1.45 trillion yuan (USD 230.16 billion) this year. This hike marks the seventh consecutive single-digit increase, reflecting the Chinese government’s interest in modernizing and developing its army to face military and political challenges and turmoil.
3- Keeping the focus on advanced technologies
Over the past years, China steadily decreased the number of its ground force personnel and created the PLASSF, the smallest fifth branch of the Chinese army and is cantered around space, cyber, influence operations, and electronic warfare.
4- Development of AI technologies
The Pentagon says that China is working on developing smart warfare using AI technologies. But China is reportedly already using AI in building military robots, missile guidance systems, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and combat boats.
Diverse Implications
President Xi Jinping’s statements about the need for modernizing the Chinese army to fight and win regional wars, has varying implications, outlined as follows:
1- China’s preparation for war
In September, one month ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi called upon the PLA to brace for fighting real wars. He told the PLA to focus all its energy on fighting in preparation for war.
In addition, the Chinese president also seeks to send a message to the United States that Xi Jinping’s China is not Mao Zedong’s China and that it will not hesitate to resort to military force if Washington threatens or attacks what Beijing considers as part of its vital interests or attempts to violate Chinese national security in Asia.
2- Seeking supremacy
China seeks to transform its army into the world’s largest by 2049 to overtake the United States’ military power. According to the Pentagon’s report on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, released in 2021, China wants to become a major power matching that of the United States, a bid that requires building new technologies, better weapons and modern military exercises.
3- Adopting firm policies
China is set to adopt firm policies to defend what it considers its legitimate interests, especially because of the still-unresolved issue of Taiwan, the border dispute with India, as well as the Senkaku Islands dispute, called Diaoyu Islands by China, as well as the persistent tensions across South China Sea. For example, China will not rule out the use of force to restore Taiwan to mainland control, according to President Xi’s report to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
4- China’s foreign expansion
China will work on signing security and military pacts with its strategic partners, which will allow Beijing to establish logistical infrastructure and extra-territorial military bases. This would allow China to expand its military clout across the world.
The latest sign of China’s bid on expansion is the signing of a security agreement with Solomon Islands, which allows Beijing to deploy security and naval forces in the South Pacific nation while keeping the nature of missions classified. The agreement was opposed by the United States, Australia and New Zealand because of concerns over China’s success in expanding its military influence in the Pacific Ocean.
Challenges Facing China’s Army
Modernization of the Chinese army as part of a bid to achieve the first place globally by 2049 is facing challenges and issues outlined here as follows:
1- Arms race
Beijing’s plans for modernizing its military capabilities will be viewed by major international and regional powers i.e., the United States and major players in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean as a new threat. These powers will not sit idly by while China is modernizing its army and beefing up its military clout. These powers will perceive China’s expansion plans as a direct threat to them in the first place, which would prompt them to respond, either individually or collectively, by upgrading their own military capabilities by allying with the United States and joining its plans against China. This will trigger an arms race in Asia and the Pacific Ocean.
While South Korea wants to upgrade its naval forces and ramp up its military purchases, Australia is considering buying hypersonic missiles, long-range ballistic missiles and even Stealth fighter jets. Moreover, military spending is set to increase. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that Asia-Pacific defence spending passed USD 1 trillion in 2021.
2- Potential shortcomings
The Chinese army has shortcomings. Most importantly, issues facing Moscow in Ukraine are similar to those suffered by the PLA. Secondly, reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is an urgent issue, even for President Xi. Some observers believe that while the ability to seize Taiwan has long been a driver of President Xi’s interest in modernizing the country’s army, achieving this goal is facing hurdles in light of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, because it means the Chinese forces have to pass through the Taiwan Strait to reach the island, an effort that requires deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops.
The third challenge is that Chinese efforts to modernize all units have not materialized yet. According to analysts, China is still in the early stages of establishing unified command structures in which all ground, air and naval forces work smoothly to carry out a coordinated battle. This was referred to by President Xi’s report which underscored the need for improving “the command system for joint operations” and enhancing China’s “systems and capacity for reconnaissance and early warning, joint strikes, battlefield support, and integrated logistics support.”
3- Gaps between China and the US
Despite advances made through modernization of the military under President Xi, the Chinese army still suffers several gaps affecting its bid to catch up with the US Army, now the most powerful military force in the world. To bridge these gaps, the Chinese army is in need of intensified military training, accelerate modernization of logistic systems, build an innovative system to manage weapons and equipment, while at the same time continuing military reforms and intensifying technological and defence innovations.
Moreover, the Chinese army personnel’s low combat experience, compared to the US Army. The Chinese army has not fought any wars for more than four decades, where its last war was against Vietnam in 1979.
The gap between China’s and United States’ navies is also evident. China is now the largest, but not the most powerful naval force in the world.
That is why China needs to reinforce its naval force to counter maritime threats, especially US provocations in China’s territorial waters. This is especially important because resolving the conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan will hinge on how far the two countries’ upgrade their naval forces.
In conclusion, it can be said that China’s modernization of its military capabilities hinges on the leadership’s recognition of increasing dynamics of regional and international instability posing threats to China’s foreign security environment. This is what prompts Beijing to adopt stricter approaches to address regional and international destabilization. To achieve this, it would embrace a policy that uses more hard power, including the use of armed forces, in s foreign policy involving dealings with the rest of the world. However, China’s success in achieving this goal hinges on bridging gaps in military technology capabilities to catch up with the United States.
