A very pessimistic view looms over the perceptions of international relations experts and researchers about the state of the world in 2018. Lists of the most influential books and book recommendations by prominent critics, published by global institutions such as the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Economist and Foreign Affairs, and global think-tanks depict a bleak picture of a troubled world, awash with rapid and unpredictable shifts, internal conflicts, intense confrontations between major powers, social and economic pressures, amid a collapse of the institutional and value foundations of stability that prevailed for long decades.
Turbulent global order
The beginning of 2017 was shocking with the publication of Richard Haass', president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former American diplomat, book “A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order”, in which he writes about the end of the world order that has been shaped since the end of the cold war, and the beginning of the “chaos era”, where threats, rapid and unpredictable shifts prevail.
The U.S.-led global order is no longer viable after the collapse of its essential pillars, this was the central idea upon which Haass founds his thesis. The book outlines the unraveling of the global order’s foundations with the distribution of power among a bigger number of actors in the age of globalization and rise of cross-border phenomena and threats such as pandemics, terrorism and maritime piracy. Haass also highlights the growing rivalry among major powers, crises of trust between allies, mounting armed conflicts and internal instability, whose manifestations have affected the U.S.
Haas makes the case for a new world order, he calls it “World Order 2.0”, to reproduce the traditional principles that governed the international system and ensured its stability such as sovereignty, legitimacy and balance of power. In such order, sovereign states focus on carrying out their duties towards the international system as far as pursuing their interests.
Anne-Marie Slaughter, in her book “The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World” calls for restructuring international interactions to be dominated by cooperation and mutual gains (win-win relations) and to take advantage of global networks in maximizing cooperation and minimizing (zero-sum games) that govern major power relations.
The dilemma of the Trump doctrine
Contrary to the liberal calls of Anne-Marie Slaughter, the leading and governing slogan of the U.S. foreign policy in the first year of U.S. president Donald Trump is “America first”, an expression of his adoption of unilateralism and renunciation of US commitments to its traditional allies.
The dilemma of U.S. alliances was clearly illustrated in Thomas Wright book “All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st Century and the Future of American Power”. Wright points out that the changes in U.S. politics have caused instability in regional order due to a declining role of the U.S in supporting the stability of these regions, the strained relations of the U.S. with its allies and the erosion of the appeal of the liberal democratic model, which is the mainstay of the American role in the world.
Although only one year has passed since Donald Trump became the U.S. president, a huge number of books have focused on Trump’s influence on American politics. For example, Charlie Laderman and Brendan Simms focused on Trump’s role in their book “The Making of a Worldview”, especially nationalism, populism, unilateralism, rebellion against rules and institutions, lack of faith in alliances and admiration for powerful and influential leaders, such as Vladimir Putin. The authors relied on the analysis of trump’s interviews and speeches before assuming office.
Joshua Green credits much of Trump’s visions and foreign policy convictions to the influence of his former national security adviser Steve Bannon. In his book “Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming of the Presidency”, Green notes that Trump would not have won the presidency without Bannon, and that Trump’s ideas during his election campaign, such as the “America First” slogan, restoration of American standing in the world and hostility to liberal trends is part of Bannon’s overriding influence in this stage, in addition to Trump’s following of “Breitbart”, a far -right news website managed by Bannon.
The intensity of divisions and polarization in the U.S. made some writers look forward to the post-Trump era, as reflected in a book titled “One Nation After Trump: A Guide for the Perplexed, the Disillusioned, the Desperate and the Not-Yet-Deported”, which offers ideas about the societal contexts that led to Trump’s victory, in an attempt to answer the question “What happened?”, the title of Hillary Clinton’s book. Then, the author examines the controversy over how Americans can regain control over politics and address extreme right-wing movements.
Receding globalization
The fate of globalization after the rise of nationalist and populist movements which call for turning inward and protectionism, sparked a debate among various authors in 2017. In his book “Grave New World: The End of Globalization, the Return of History”, Stephen King pointed out the retreat of liberalism globally and the rise of political authoritarianism since the global financial crisis in 2008. He links this retreat to the exhaustion of the U.S. that led to a decline in its international role concurring with the crisis of survival the West is experiencing. This was highlighted by Bill Emmott in his book “The Fate of the West” which focuses on the implications of the rise of the far-right parties, Brexit and European debt crisis.
In his book “From Global to Local: The Making of Things and the End of Globalization”, Finbarr Livesey offers a different explanation for the end of globalization. He believes that technological shifts and the advent of 3D printing and reliance on robots in manufacturing will push companies toward manufacturing their products in the countries in which they sell those products, with low cost. This would in turn to to end the universal division of labor and the collapse of “Asia factory” model thar was based on global companies manufacturing their products in Asian countries, known as (nearshore) in contrary to the trends of transferring manufacturing abroad (offshore).
Reasons for the rise of populism
In Western countries, publications in 2017 focused on the reasons for the rise of populism in the U.S. and the West. In his book “After Europe”, Ivan Krastev stresses that the rise of the right-wing rhetoric in Europe is linked to what he calls “hyperglobaliztion” espoused by European governments, which caused economic damage to the middle class in European countries. The author views populism as a protest from the part of the middle class at political elites. He also uses the term “contagion effect” to explain the rise of the right-wing movements, considering populism a threat to the survival of the European project, especially given the hostility of far-right parties towards the EU and its policies.
On his part, Steve Richards believes that the rise of populism was inevitable, however in his book “The Rise of the Outsiders: How Mainstream Politics Lost Its Way”, he predicts a rapid decline and retreat of the far-right parties after assuming power because they do not have clear political platforms or specific mechanisms to implement their agenda. He contends that their popularity was founded solely on opposing and criticizing the “mainstream”, and their path to power reveals the stringent institutional and legal restrictions imposed by democratic regimes on the incumbents, which impedes the implementation of their radical ideas.
On the other hand, Edward Luce, in his book “The Retreat of Western Liberalism”, suggests that the retreat of democracy is not a temporary phenomenon. He attributes it to the dysfunction of liberal model and disconnection of liberal movements from citizens as a result of their desperate defence of globalization and market economics and their usage of tepid language, non-reactive, drawn from the dictionaries of management advisors, consulting firms and dialogues of the Davos Economic Forum, which pushed the “left Behind” to punish them by supporting the right-wing candidates in elections. Luce believes that the solution is to re-educate the liberals the language of nationalism and and restructure their vision toward their home, to become more sensitive to the diversity and divergence of interests of their societies.
Luce’s views correspond with those put forward by David Goodhart in his book “The Road to Somewhere: The Populist Revolt and the Future of Politics”, in which he describes the rise of populism as “Silent Counter-Revolution” to counter the threats of globalization to the identity and economic interests of marginalized and non-beneficiaries of the economic opening. Goodhart uses Ronald Inglehart’s statements on “Postmaterial value change” and the growing trends of preservation of identity and cultural specificity.
The age of “unenlightenment”
Several books in 2017 discussed the impacts of social media on politics and societies, in the context of what was called “the Year of Unenlightenment”. In this regard, “The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone”, a book by Philip Fernbach and Steven Sloman, indicates that the internet and social media feed the illusion of individuals that they know everything, which is incompatible with the “Cognitive division of Labor” and the distribution of individuals’ knowledge in different ranges.
Social media called into question the usefulness of expertise and the role of experts in society, as highlighted by Tom Nichols in his book “The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why it Matters”. He argues that technology has encouraged individuals to confuse between “access to information” and “knowledge”, resulting in hostility towards experts, elites and rational thinking.
Nicholas describes the situation by saying that “the educational system treats teachers as professional service providers, not as individuals who know more than their students… journalists are pushed to present what the public wants, not what they should know”, which led to blurring the borderlines between truth and lies, and the spread of fake news.
Another book “#Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media” sheds light on the political repercussions of this phenomenon and how it contributed to undermine representative democracy through the creation of “epistemic prisons” as a result of the isolation of individuals and the establishment of “virtual closed and isolated communities” from reality, nurturing divisions and extremism in thinking and radical solutions, and a decline in the culture of consensus, negotiation and compromise.
The upcoming conflict in Asia
A warning of a possible clash among major powers in the Asian continent dominated several publications in 2017. This trend was spearheaded by Harvard University Professor Graham Allison's book, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”. Allison meant by “Thucydides Trap”, the Greek historian’s analysis of the Peloponnesian war that erupted between Athens and Sparta after the rise of Sparta and its quest to strengthen its position, causing a clash with Athens, the dominant force at that time.
In this vein, the author argues that power transition in the global system has historically caused a war between the rising force “China” and the dominant force “the United States”. This war may ensue from a limited clash in the South China Sea, that drags the major powers to a direct military confrontation in the same way that some of the ancillary incidents caused the eruption of major world wars.
Other authors explain the growing likelihood of a conflict between the U.S. and China through the lenses of Chinese elites who believe that China must regain its imperial and historical position. This is highlighted by Howard French in his book “Everything Under The Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power”, asserting that the doctrine of Chinese president Xi Jinping is dominated by a quest to revive the imperial legacy of China, which its historical reach spanned to Central Asia, East and Southeast Asia.
This proposition is consistent with Tom Miller’s book “China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road”, while Bernard Cole’s book “China’s Quest for Great Power: Ships, Oil and Foreign Policy” focuses on analyzing the plans to develop and modernize the Chinese fleet and marine power, and quest to control oil sources. He argues that these plans are among the catalysts of the potential conflict between China, the U.S. and the Asian powers allied with them especially Japan. The evidence for this is that the second war triggered a naval arms race between Germany and Britain and led Japan to seek control over energy flows.
The author asserts that China’s foreign policy is not aimed at the U.S., but primarily Japan, because of the historical antagonism between the two countries, the complex border disputes and the Japanese occupation of China, which remains firmly rooted in the collective memory of the Chinese people. This opinion corresponds with that of Richard McGregor in his book “Asia's Reckoning: The Struggle for Global Dominance” about the balance of power in the Pacific triangle that encompasses China, the U.S and Japan, which sets the course and pace of interactions on the Asian continent.
In his book “By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783”, Michael Green argues that the U.S. will not withdraw from the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific ocean is considered the “advanced defence line” for America's national security, asserting that the American military deployments in south China sea will surge with the continuous rise in of China and North Korea’s nuclear threats.
Threats to European cohesion
The fate of the European Union has occupied a great deal of debate over 2017, at the forefront of the books that discussed this subject is William Drozdiak’s book “Fractured Continent: Europe’s Crises and the Fate of the West”. Drozdiak outlines several threats to the European project, including the “democratic deficit” in EU institutions, Russia’s siege of Eastern European countries such as Ukraine and crises affecting the EU's cohesion as well as Brexit and economic crises within the European countries due to the fraying of the welfare state model.
In the same vein, in her book “The Crisis of Multiculturalism in Europe: A History”, Rita Chin highlights the failure of cultural assimilation policies across the continent, the rise of far-right parties, in parallel with religious extremism that defend the cultural specificity in the face of policies of removing religious manifestations from public sphere.
Along the same line, in his book “Europe Reset: New Directions for the EU”, Richard Youngs offers thoughts to counter the above-mentioned threats, including integrating European communities in the EU, civic patriation in EU institutions, recognition of economic disparities between European countries, and the construction of a new pattern for European citizenship to preserve the cohesion of the Union.
The rise of Russian nationalism
Focus on Russia was one of the top priorities of the best-selling books in 2017, Masha Gessen’s book “The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia”. Gessen argues that the fall of the Soviet Union has not eliminated the totalitarian ideology that remained latent until it was invoked again during the national tide to protest against the decline and erosion of Russia’s global standing, which led to the return of community closure policies, crackdown on the opposition, and fueled the aspirations for external expansion that prevailed during the Cold War.
In the same context, Anton Shekhovtsov’s book “Russia and the Western Far Right: Tango Noir” underscores that the rapprochement between Russia and far-right movements in the U.S. and European countries stems from the ideological convergence between Russian nationalism and these movements, especially with regard to the rejection of multiculturalism, xenophobia, the quest to regain global prestige, economic closure, and the focus on the role of leadership and hostility towards liberalism. Russia has sought to exploit these movements to penetrate and dismantle Western countries from within, as part of anti-containment policies against the attempts of the Western countries to penetrate its geographical surroundings and strategic depth.
In his book “What Is Russia Up To in the Middle”, Dmitri Trenin argues that the reasons behind the growing Russian role is Moscow’s dissatisfaction with the status quo of the international system and its quest to regain its international standing. Also, the Arab Spring led Russia to intervene proactively to prevent the West from triggering a “Russian spring” similar to “colour revolutions” in Eastern Europe.
Russia learned a lesson from its defeat in Afghanistan and the fall of its allies in the Arab region: “alliances in this region are changing and tactical, and that there is no permanent friends or foes”. This led Moscow to widen its network of regional relations to include most of Middle Eastern states and non-state actors.
Trenin contends that Moscow taught the U.S. and its allies a lesson in the military intervention management, as it has been able to prop up the Assad regime in Syria, manage the divergence of interests with its allies, particularly Iran, and take advantage of Tehran’s militias, such as Hezbollah, to advance its interests. In addition, the Western support for the Kurds in Syria pushed Turkey to the Russian camp, to defend its interests.
In conclusion, the major themes of publications on international relations in 2017 confirm that several driving forces will govern the world in 2018. These include the retreat of globalization, regional integration projects, intense rivalry among major powers over dominance, spread of internal instability and regional conflicts and proxy wars, especially in border contact zones among major powers, such as in Central Asia and Eastern European regions and the Balkans, which are facing threats to its stability. This is in addition to precarious internal situations, communal, ethnic and religious divisions and hostility to multiculturalism, expertise and knowledge.
