The presidential elections held in Chad on May 6, 2024, mark a crucial turning point on the path to a constitutional order. President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, also known as General Kaka, assumed office in 2021 following the death of his father, Idriss Déby Itno, who was killed in battle against the Front for Change and Concord (FACT), one of the largest armed political groups based on the border with Libya. The constitutional provision allowing the parliament speaker to oversee the transitional process was bypassed in favor of establishing a transitional military council headed by Idriss Déby's son, Mahamat.
After extensive debate and considerable concern regarding the transfer of power in Chad, the African Union's Peace and Security Council refrained from labeling this move unconstitutional, allowing Chad to avoid suspension from the African Union. In the following months, President Déby initiated a series of measures aimed at achieving national reconciliation, offering official positions to influential opposition figures both inside and outside Chad and launching two national dialogues. Consequently, the transitional period was extended from an initial 18 months to an additional two years, from April 2021 to April 2024. Unlike other coup-belt countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, Chad's transitional roadmap received a degree of legitimacy from regional, continental, and Western actors. Political transition in Chad may serve as a true test of the African Union's approach to supporting peaceful transformation on the continent.
On May 9, the Chadian electoral commission announced Déby's victory in the presidential elections from the first round with 61% of the vote. This article seeks to analyze the significance of holding the presidential elections in Chad and its national and regional implications, and it attempts to outline the future prospects and pathways for this country.
The Road to Elections
The comprehensive national and sovereign dialogue in Chad, aimed at addressing political tensions and promoting reconciliation, faced significant challenges and criticisms from various stakeholders. Despite efforts to involve numerous armed political groups in pre-dialogue discussions in Doha, Qatar, only 34 out of 52 groups signed an agreement after five months of negotiations, expressing concerns about unfulfilled pledges, such as releasing political prisoners.
The National Dialogue Conference held in N'Djamena in August 2022 was boycotted by many major groups, including civil society organizations, the Catholic Church, and some political parties, due to noticeable restrictions on the scope of discussions and a lack of inclusivity. Moreover, the decision to extend President Déby's rule for two years, contrary to his initial promise of a civilian transfer of power, sparked widespread protests in October 2021, resulting in over 120 deaths. The demonstrations, along with incidents like the killing of prominent opposition figure Yaya Dillo in February 2024, highlighted ongoing internal tensions and challenges within Chad's governance structure, especially among ethnic communities such as the Zaghawa people. Despite these obstacles, there were signs of progress, such as the return of prominent opposition figure Succès Masra as Prime Minister in January 2024.
For the first time in Chad's history, the president and the prime minister competed head-to-head in a general election alongside eight other candidates, including a woman. General Mahamat Idriss Déby, running under the "United Chad" coalition, aimed to civilianize his regime following the constitutional changes approved in a December 2023 referendum. Succès Masra, the appointed Prime Minister and a Harvard and Oxford-educated economist representing the "Transformers" party, ran under the "Coalition for Justice and Equality."
On May 9, the electoral commission announced Mahamat Idriss Déby's victory with 61% of the vote, surpassing the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second round, while Succès Masra received 18.53% of the vote. Before the official results were announced, Masra declared victory in a live Facebook broadcast and urged security forces and his supporters to reject what he called an "attempt to steal the vote."
Significance and Implications
The recent elections in Chad hold significant importance for several internal, regional, and international reasons, which can be outlined as follows:
1. Achieving Reconciliation and Mitigating Rifts within the Ruling Family
The announcement of President Mahamat Déby's candidacy led to splits within the ruling family. A notable example is the killing of Yaya Dillo, leader of the "Socialist Party Without Borders" and President Déby's cousin. The government claims Dillo was killed resisting arrest, while opposition members argue he was extrajudicially executed in a military operation. During the same operation, President Déby's uncle, Saleh Déby, was also arrested. These incidents reflect increasing divisions within the Zaghawa tribe, to which the Déby family belongs. The Zaghawa comprise just over 5% of Chad's population but have controlled the country for 30 years with support from other northern elites, including the Toubou and Arab ethnic groups.
During the transition, Mahamat Déby's consolidation of power over the Chadian military led to the retirement of over 100 generals close to his late father. At the same time, Déby established a new guard, the "Rapid Intervention Force." These moves heightened tensions within the Chadian ruling elite due to the prominence gained by non-Zaghawa groups, particularly the Goran (to which Déby's mother belongs) and loyal Arabs in the military. While Mahamat Déby has so far used the current patronage system to placate ethnic concerns, he might repeat the approach of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has blood ties to both the Oromo and Amhara. So the question is: Can President Mahamat Kaka, who is Zaghawa through his father and Toubou through his mother, achieve tribal reconciliation between the Zaghawa and other Arab tribes in Chad?
2. The First Peaceful Transition in the Coup Belt Countries
Amidst the turbulent regional context, prolonged civil wars in Libya and Sudan, disputes over constitutional referendums in the Central African Republic, and unconstitutional government changes in the coup belt countries, the stability of Chad is crucial for the peace efforts in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel region. For instance, the crisis in Sudan poses a threat to Chad's stability, with over 550,000 refugees from Darfur continuing to cross the border and settle in the already economically and socially fragile Ouaddai region. Therefore, instability in Chad could lead to a disaster for its people, the Sahel region, and the neighboring Central African Republic. Thus, the importance of Chad's elections lies in achieving a peaceful political transition.
3. Setting a Standard for Regional and Continental Organizations' Responses
It is conceivable that Chad's elections could set a precedent for how organizations like the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) respond to threats posed by coup leaders as heads of state. This, in turn, will influence the trajectory of transitions in Gabon and other countries governed by military councils. Consequently, Chad's elections serve as a test of the AU's determination to enforce the rules and principles concerning unconstitutional government changes, as outlined in political instruments like the Lomé Declaration and the African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance. This holds significant implications for the AU's effectiveness, given its previous statements regarding the transitional process in Chad. Thus, in addition to local and cross-regional implications, Chad's elections will indicate how the AU manages countless political transitions and its response patterns to future unconstitutional changes.
4. Chad as a Key Player in the War Against Terrorism
One of the issues concerning Chad's elections involves military cooperation, particularly the presence of foreign military bases, which is a controversial and tension-filled topic in the Sahel region plagued by terrorism. Over the past two years, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have forced both France and the United States to withdraw their military forces. This shift came in favor of these three countries' alignment with Russia and their joint efforts to combat armed terrorist groups. While France still maintains a few thousand soldiers in three bases in Chad, the outcome of the presidential elections in this country, a cornerstone of the French military presence in the Sahel, could be most significant for Paris. The same applies to Washington, which recently announced the "redeployment" of its troops stationed in Chad after agreeing to withdraw its troops from Niger.
The recent wave of coups in West African countries, along with the outbreak of the Sudanese civil war in April 2023, makes Chad appear as an island of stability in the greater Sahel region. Furthermore, Chad remains one of the few reliable allies of the West. As the first country in the region to undergo a political transition and successfully organize elections, Chad could provide a model for the ruling military councils in neighboring countries.
Upcoming Challenges
Chad is facing four major challenges following the current elections:
1. Social and Ethnic Challenges
The ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan is one of the major challenges facing the government in N'Djamena due to strong family ties between peoples of both countries. The late president Idriss Déby led his military coup in 1990 from Darfur, Sudan. Additionally, social and ethnic tensions remain high in Chad, and the transitional government has yet to offer a real solution to the social and economic crisis that Chadians have endured for years. Recent measures, such as agreements with teachers, reduced transport taxes, and subsidized utilities, have not quelled social discontent. On the contrary, wage arrears for civil servants, rising fuel prices, and water and electricity cuts have all led to repeated strikes.
At the same time, ethnic tensions are escalating across Chad. The south and central regions suffer from conflicts between herders and farmers, exacerbated by long-standing identity divisions, leading to renewed separatist demands. Eastern provinces face unprecedented pressures due to the influx of Sudanese refugees. Competition for resources, especially land, and rising inflation are likely to heighten these tensions.
One of President Déby's top priorities after his election victory will be addressing health issues in a country with some of the world's lowest health indicators, according to the World Health Organization. Maternal and infant mortality rates are 860 deaths per 100,000 live births and 72 deaths per 1,000 live births, respectively. Moreover, access to clean drinking water (around 15% in some areas) and sanitation (20% access rate) remain among the lowest in the world.
2. Managing the Oil Wealth
Chad holds the tenth-largest proven oil reserves in Africa and emerged as a significant exporter in the early 2000s when production began from the Doba oil fields in the south, which is transported via a pipeline through Cameroon to the Atlantic coast. As part of geopolitical and commercial hedging, the Chadian government signed partnerships with major oil companies from the United States (Exxon), France (Elf), Malaysia (Petronas), and China (CNPC). Although production levels between 150,000 and 200,000 barrels per day are modest compared to Libya and Nigeria, oil has become a pillar of Chad's economy, leading the GDP to grow fivefold since 2000. Today, the oil sector accounts for 30% of Chad's GDP, 86% of export income, and 62% of budget revenues.
Oil has primarily shaped Chad's domestic and foreign policies, serving as a tool for internal control and extending influence abroad. However, the majority of Chadians still face energy poverty, with only 10% of the population having access to electricity, which highlights the stark disparity between oil wealth and social development. Addressing this developmental challenge will be a top priority for the new president.
3. The Challenge of the "Gatekeeper State"
Newly elected President Déby faces a tremendous challenge stemming from the legacy of the so-called "gatekeeper" policy established by his late father. This system effectively turned Chad into a "gatekeeper state," where the ruling elite and their patronage networks control vital aspects of the economy and politics, including tax revenues, foreign loans, and aid. Such centralized control heightens political competition and increases the risk of instability.
Déby senior's regime prioritized securing international support, maintaining internal alliances, and managing rebellions while monopolizing the income distribution generated by "gatekeeping," where local society intersects with the external economy. However, this approach isolated the political elite from the concerns of civil society and hindered broader access to economic opportunities that are necessary for development. President Déby must navigate these complexities to promote inclusive development and address the root causes of political fragility. While international support is available, pressing concerns revolve around maintaining internal alliances and controlling regional borders to prevent rebellions. However, the struggle for gatekeeping control has not translated into improved living standards for the people. It remains uncertain whether the new leadership under Mahamat Déby will challenge this status quo, but understanding the dynamics of gatekeeping politics is crucial to mobilize efforts towards genuine development across Chad.
4. The Challenge of Diversifying Strategic Partnerships
Amid significant turmoil and conflicts in its neighboring countries, Chad will need to adopt a cautious stance in the short term concerning its position in the Sudanese conflict and its relations with other Sahel countries. Should President Déby decide to continue diversifying his security partners, he will need to clarify his plans and ensure coordination among various actors, such as France, the United States, and potentially Russia, particularly in the areas of military training and support.
Doing so will help avoid the spread of misinformation and incendiary rhetoric in Chad or, worse, direct confrontation between its allies. Some viewed the threat to expel the US troops as a tactical move to bolster Déby's image ahead of the elections and signal his openness to eliminating Western influence without sacrificing his main ally, France. Security experts suggest that this is part of a bargaining strategy to get more US support for the Chadian government. A small US emergency force may temporarily withdraw, only to reposition in Chad after the elections. It should be noted that this global interest in establishing a presence in Chad is due to the geostrategic value of the country, located at the crossroads of North, West, and Central Africa, making it an ideal location for global actors. Chad hosts US military exercises, a large French base, and has received French and international EU forces that were expelled from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Chad is also the backyard of many conflict-ridden areas, such as Libya, Sudan, and the Lake Chad countries.
The global power struggle for influence in the Sahel presents both an asset and a risk for Chad. President Déby's trip to Moscow in January 2024 was not only a strong signal to Paris, which immediately reaffirmed its security commitment to N'Djamena but also an exercise in domestic politics. Aware of growing anti-French sentiment, Déby described his meeting with President Vladimir Putin as asserting sovereignty and independence. While diversifying security partnerships has currently helped stabilize the regime through funding and military equipment, it could open new fronts of instability. Divisions may arise between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements within the regime, while political and military opposition could seek support from Moscow or Western capitals. In other words, conflicting messages from Chadian authorities regarding anti-French sentiments in the country might backfire by making the country's alliances a source of internal discord, which represents the next major challenge.
The Future of Chad
After its return to constitutional rule, Chad's future carries a mix of optimism and caution, depending on its ability to address key challenges and capitalize on potential opportunities. The country faces inherent fragility, including the "gatekeeper state" legacy and the need to diversify strategic partnerships. However, by directly tackling these challenges, Chad can chart a path towards stability, development, and regional leadership. The youth, in particular, demand a more inclusive and equitable state.
Holding the legislative elections, whose date is yet to be determined, will be the first serious test for President Déby. The credibility of these elections will depend on conducting them within a reasonable timeframe and adhering to principles of transparency, particularly concerning reviewing voter lists. Such measures could be the first step towards reinstating the rules of democratic practice in the country and laying the foundations for genuine national reconciliation. In the medium term, these efforts could also enable President Déby to rebuild social trust and break the cycle of violence associated with increasing ethnic conflicts across Chad by more actively involving local communities in conflict resolution and strengthening the capacities of security and judicial institutions.
Successful stabilization and reform efforts could lead to a period of sustainable growth and prosperity in Chad by supporting the principles of good governance, economic diversification, and international cooperation. Conversely, failure to address fundamental grievances and institutional weaknesses could perpetuate fragility and conflict, exacerbating governance challenges and undermining the country's prospects for peace and progress. Thus, Chad's future will likely be shaped by its ability to navigate these complex dynamics, establish inclusive political alliances, and prioritize the well-being of its citizens. Ultimately, by bridging the gaps inherited from previous governments, pursuing meaningful reforms, and enhancing social cohesion, Chad can aspire to a promising future that contributes to its stability and bolsters its regional influence in a volatile security environment.
