India's 2024 general election marks a historic moment in democratic governance, spanning six weeks from April 19 to June 1, 2024. The results of the elections will be announced on June 4. With over 900 million eligible voters, it stands as the largest democratic exercise globally.

The Lok Sabha, India's lower chamber of parliament, with 543 seats, serves as the focal point of this electoral battleground. In the previous 2019 election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a significant victory, winning 303 seats. Modi's coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), clinched a commanding majority with 352 seats overall.[1] The election process, characterized by staggering logistics and extensive campaigning, exemplifies India's commitment to democratic principles and electoral integrity.

The Electoral Map

Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands at the forefront of India's political landscape, seeking a third successive term in office. Recent opinion polls project a favourable outcome for Modi's BJP and its allies in the upcoming election. Modi's tenure has been marked by efforts to bolster India's global standing through economic growth and strategic alliances, particularly with the United States. His administration has introduced welfare schemes targeting poverty alleviation and women's empowerment, garnering support among various segments of society. Despite criticism from opposition parties and civil liberties groups regarding issues such as unemployment and press freedom, Modi remains a dominant figure in Indian politics, shaping the narrative and direction of the country's development.[2]

The primary challenge to Modi's leadership comes from a coalition of political parties led by the Indian National Congress, the principal opposition party. Forming the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), this coalition comprises over two dozen parties, including regional players and the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Key figures within this alliance, such as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and the Gandhi siblings, Rahul and Priyanka, aim to present a united front against the BJP's incumbency. However, internal rifts and challenges, including recent arrests of AAP leaders on corruption charges, pose hurdles to the opposition's electoral prospects.[3] As the campaign unfolds, the opposition's ability to articulate alternative policies and mobilize voters will shape the electoral landscape and determine Modi's political fate.

Initial Indicators

In India’s upcoming 2024 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is setting ambitious targets reminiscent of its 2019 victory. With slogans like "ab ki baar, 400 paar" (this time, 400 seats), the BJP aims to surpass its previous success. Pollsters predict the BJP and its allies to secure around 388 seats, marking a significant triumph. This projection reflects the BJP's remarkable ascent in Indian politics over the past four decades, from securing 7% of the vote in its debut election to an expected 40% in the upcoming polls.[4]

Contrastingly, India's grand old party, Congress, has witnessed a decline in its fortunes. Teaming up with 27 other parties under the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), Congress is forecasted to win only 21% of the vote, struggling to counter the BJP's dominance. Popular sentiment favors the BJP, with 57% of Indians expressing satisfaction with its governance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys widespread popularity, with nearly half of all Indians endorsing his leadership.[5]

In addition, the opposition faces challenges in toppling the BJP stronghold, particularly in the north and west regions, where the party's Hindu-nationalist agenda resonates strongly. The south presents a different scenario, with regional competitors posing formidable opposition. Additionally, the BJP's grip is weaker at the state level, holding only a third of the more than 4,000 state assembly seats.

Smaller regional parties have scored victories against the BJP in states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, highlighting the complex dynamics of Indian politics. While the opposition faces hurdles in unseating the BJP, the upcoming elections will shape the trajectory of India's political landscape.[6]

A Potential Third Term

Moreover, the latest analysis from the Bernstein Societe General Group sheds light on the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, indicating a strong prospect of the Narendra Modi government securing a third consecutive term. Despite concerns about low voter turnout impacting the incumbent government's prospects, the analysis downplays this issue, asserting that past elections demonstrate no significant correlation between voter turnout and election outcomes.

Even assuming a minor decline in overall voting, with the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) capturing a significant portion of anti-incumbency sentiment, the BJP's vote share remains notably higher. This analysis indicates that while the opposition may gain seats due to alliances, a significant loss for the BJP seems improbable.[7]

However, it is crucial to realise the intricate dynamics of voter behaviour, stressing the necessity for a nuanced understanding beyond simplistic comparisons of voter turnout across different phases. Voting patterns across states are multifaceted and influenced by factors such as regional demographics and historical trends. Furthermore, the current elections lack a unifying national narrative, rendering comparisons to previous cycles, especially 2019, less relavant.

Instead, it is crucial to meticulously analyse the 2014 elections, considering the incumbent government's decade-long rule and the electorates' choice between continuity and change. Despite variations in voter turnout, the analysis indicates a lack of significant deviations from previous electoral patterns, underscoring the significance of constituency-level analysis in gauging election dynamics.[8]

Polarization and Disinformation

Two major trends can be observed in the current elections and its run-up. Firstly, recent remarks by Prime Minister Modi have stirred controversy, with critics accusing him of engaging in divisive rhetoric aimed at consolidating support among his Hindu nationalist base. In a speech, Modi suggested that if the Congress were to come to power, it would prioritize the Muslim minority, sparking condemnation from the opposition. This rhetoric, viewed by analysts as a move towards communal politics, has drawn criticism for potentially marginalizing minorities, particularly Muslims.

Despite denials from the Congress Party and accusations of violating electoral laws, Modi defended his statements as advocating for equality, sparking debates about the erosion of India's secular values under his tenure.[9] Such messaging is amplified through various social media platforms, including WhatsApp and Telegram groups dominated by Hindu extremists or BJP supporters, where messages promoting Hindu unity and portraying Muslims in a negative light are circulated.

The second major trend seen in the elections has been the mass spread of artificial intelligence-generated fake videos across the elections. With the rise of Generative AI, the demand for experts who are able to make fake videos of politicians has risen significantly. The videos that have been made are not high quality in nature and are named cheap fakes (a play on the term ‘deep-fakes’).[10] These cheap fakes are created by various political consulting groups that political parties hire for the sake of election campaigning.[11] Given that internet penetration and smartphone usage rates in India are well over the 60% mark (over 800 million users), the ability to make fake videos and spread them are major skills that political parties look out for.[12] Despite the poor quality of these fake videos, it is still possible to fool a large number of users given that media literacy among Indian users is often quite low.

The cheap-fakes are either made to show political opponents in a poor light or to show their own politicians in a good light. For example, in the South Indian state of Tamil Nadu, fake videos of dead politicians emerged asking people to vote for certain parties. These cheap-fakes have flooded cyberspace in India, creating significant amounts of confusion in cyberspace and have contributed to a large amount of election misinformation as well.[13] It is possible that over time, cheap-fakes could create possible religious polarization and tensions, especially in a post-election scenario which can be catastrophic for peace and harmony in India.

In conclusion, India's 2024 general election represents a pivotal moment in the nation's democratic journey, showcasing the vibrancy and complexity of its electoral process. With over 900 million eligible voters and a diverse array of political parties vying for power, the stakes are high as the country navigates through various socioeconomic and political challenges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, characterized by ambitious slogans and strategic alliances, continues to shape the electoral landscape, drawing both praise and criticism. The opposition, led by the Indian National Congress and other regional players, presents a mild challenge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), albeit facing internal rifts and electoral hurdles. Recent controversies surrounding hate speech and the spread of fake videos underscore the complexities of Indian politics and the evolving nature of electoral campaigning. As the nation awaits the election results, the role of technology, media literacy, and political discourse will remain central in shaping India's democratic trajectory and its implications for governance, social cohesion, and pluralism.