During his visit to Mauritania, on March 31, 2017, Marcel De Souza, Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, cited fears of possible "exodus of terrorist" from the Iraqi city of Mosul to the city of Kidal in northern Mali. His remarks raised many questions about the possible movement of some terrorists among various conflict spots, instead of returning to their countries of origin, under what might be called “Terrorists on the move”. This differs from the phenomenon of "returnees from conflict zones, from which some states and experts have warned during the recent period.
Although some experts excluded this possibility, however these questions began to gain importance and relevance particularly in light of increasing reports, which suggest that ISIS may seek to find new conflict spots to expand itself, due to the pressure it currently faces in its strongholds, mainly in Syria and Iraq.
Renewed Phenomenon
The phenomenon of “Terrorists on the move” is linked to the multiplicity of conflict zones that allow terrorists to move from one area to another, due to porous borders and weak security controls in some states, particularly in countries in crisis. Remarkably, this phenomenon is not new but a renewed one. In fact, it appeared in the early 1990s after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the outbreak of the civil war in 1992, where many foreign fighters refused to participate in that war, and decided to head towards other conflict zones, like Chechnya, Bosnia, Kashmir, Somalia and elsewhere. They moved there to participate in the escalating wars and establish training camps for some elements which they managed to recruit to engage in those conflicts.
“Terrorists on the move” phenomenon started to manifest itself again on the scene during the recent period, due to the mounting pressure on terrorist organizations, especially ISIS which has engaged in military battles on multiple fronts in both Iraq and Syria. Several studies have revealed that many terrorist elements that have joined ISIS in the past will not return to their countries, particularly in light of heightened security measures followed by such countries, which started also to boost security coordination with neighboring countries and some of the forces involved in the war against terrorism. But they will head towards new conflict spots, whether based on an individual decision or that of their organization.
In the same vein, Deutsche Welle reported in June 2016, that some elements of ISIS might head towards Libya or Afghanistan or other unstable countries, because the organization there has the ability to redeploy and provide the needed incubator. Newsweek magazine also warned, at the beginning of November 2016, that elements of ISIS might move from Sirte city in Libya to Tunisia.
In December 2016, Farhat Horchani, the Tunisian Defense Minister, said that “terrorists are fleeing from southern Libya not only to join Boko Haram group, but also to move towards the West, to Tunisia in specific”. In February 2017, he stressed that the return of fighters poses a threat to Tunisian national security, because they may carry out terrorist acts against the state and its democratic transition.
Multiple Differences
“Terrorists on the move”, who move between different conflict spots to engage in armed confrontations, differ from "returnee terrorists" who try to return to their countries directly from conflicts spots. Therefore, several experts began to describe “Terrorists on the move” as "mercenaries" who participate in various conflicts for several reasons associated with their ultra-extremist ideas and the quest to maintain their sources of income.
In addition, "returnees" often try to move to their countries individually, while the “Terrorists on the move” move individually or collectively. “Terrorists on the move” mostly have outstanding combat capabilities and experience, and they are, according to many experts, more committed intellectually and on the organizational level to their organization. This is what makes them, often, obey the orders of their organizational leadership to move from one area to another. On the other hand, the "returnees", especially those who would return based on an individual decision, are considered as seeking to escape from the battle fronts after mounting pressures on them. Therefore, terrorist organizations are keen to take deterrent action against them, similar to what ISIS has done in 2017, where it executed seven of its elements who tried to escape across the Tigris River, but they failed due to the control of Iraqi forces on the waterway. Furthermore, fatwas were issued within the organization that allow the execution of elements who seek to flee the fighting fronts.
Potential Consequences
The rise of the “Terrorists on the move” phenomenon in this period may have many significant repercussions, especially considering the deteriorating security situation in many conflict zones, most notably the following:
1. Widening violence: particularly that these elements seek to engage in military battles in some of those areas, whether based on an individual decision or directions from their organizations.
2. Recruiting new elements: several experts are of the opinion that “Terrorists on the move” often possess significant combat and organizational expertise as a result of their participation in armed clashes between terrorist organizations and certain forces and parties involved in the war against terrorism. This increases the likelihood of passing that experience to some local elements, especially if instructed by major groups to establish training centers for these elements to support the expansion efforts of these organizations.
3. Worsening situations in conflict zones: the involvement of these elements in armed confrontations in some conflict areas, often leads to the escalation of crisis in such areas, at the security, economic and social levels. This is exacerbated by the declining capabilities of authorities in crisis countries to impose tight security measures, border control and combat arms smuggling.
Finally, it can be said that the greater the pressure on terrorist organizations in a region, the greater the phenomenon of “Terrorists on the move” will spread, particularly in light of the increasing number of foreign extremist elements who joined those groups during the past period, as well as the keenness of many states, to which these elements belong, to take several measures to prevent their return to their territories.
