On January 28, 2024, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso declared their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in response to the stringent economic sanctions levied by the 15-member regional bloc following recent military coups. This move has sparked widespread speculation regarding its impact on the ECOWAS’ function, as well as the security and political landscape in the Sahel and West Africa.
Withdrawal Trio
The decision of the three countries to withdraw from ECOWAS represents an unprecedented development and a significant challenge for the regional bloc. It marks the first time a member has withdrawn from the group since its inception nearly 50 years ago. This development threatens the regional integration plans that the group has sought to achieve. The implications can be outlined as follows:
1- A joint stance:
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS in a joint statement published by the official media of the three countries. This move came in response to the tough economic, political, and financial sanctions imposed by ECOWAS in an attempt to push the three countries to return to constitutional order. However, these sanctions provoked resentment in these countries, leading them to adopt a more rigid stance towards the organization. ECOWAS had previously hinted that it would not recognize the military governments which emerged from the military coups in Niger in July 2023, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Mali in 2020.
2- ECOWAS' response:
ECOWAS has reaffirmed its commitment to seeking negotiated solutions to the current political deadlock in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The organization clarified that it has not yet received any formal requests from these nations to withdraw from its membership. According to Article 91 of the ECOWAS treaty, a member state can only withdraw after providing a written one-year notice and must adhere to its provisions during this period. However, the joint statement from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso indicates their desire to immediately withdraw from the group without following the withdrawal procedures outlined in the treaty.
It is worth noting that ECOWAS is still the highest political, economic, and regional authority in West Africa, having been established in 1975 to foster economic cooperation and integration among its member states. It consists of 15 countries, but this number seems to be shrinking following the three countries' decision to withdraw from the bloc.
3- Strong criticism from Nigeria:
Nigeria, the current chair of ECOWAS and the leading economic power in West Africa, issued a statement on January 29, 2024, criticizing the decision of the three countries to withdraw from the regional bloc. The statement criticized the actions of the military leaders of the three countries, claiming that unelected leaders engage in public positions that deprive their people of freedom of movement and trade. The statement also revealed Abuja's readiness to engage with the three countries which decided to withdraw from ECOWAS.
In this context, Nigeria is likely to call for an emergency summit for ECOWAS at its headquarters in Abuja to discuss the trio’s decision to withdraw their memberships. However, the bloc currently lacks any means to pressure these countries to reconsider their withdrawal decision.
Complex Contexts
The decision of the three countries to withdraw from ECOWAS comes amid a series of changes that have dominated the general context in the Sahel and West Africa in recent months. This can be summarized as follows:
1- Deterioration of relations between ECOWAS and the three countries:
The relationship between ECOWAS and three countries that have recently experienced military coups has become strained, particularly after the bloc imposed severe sanctions on these member states. ECOWAS suspended their membership in the regional bloc, enforced an air embargo on commercial flights, shut down land and sea borders, and froze their assets held in the regional central bank.
The withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS was expected, as many assessments had predicted this possibility several months ago. Tensions escalated between these countries and the regional bloc, leading to this decision. ECOWAS had suggested potential military intervention to support the ousted Nigerien President, Mohamed Bazoum, which prompted Mali and Burkina Faso to threaten intervention to defend Niger. Subsequently, the three countries repeatedly threatened to withdraw from ECOWAS in protest against the imposed sanctions.
All meetings and mediations aimed at resolving the disputes between the two sides in recent times have failed. The decision of the three countries to withdraw from ECOWAS came after an ECOWAS delegation failed to reach Niger for talks with the ruling military council. The delegation cited a malfunction in the plane that was supposed to carry them to Niamey. This prompted the Nigerien Prime Minister, appointed by the ruling military council, to criticize the intentions of the regional bloc and its efforts to continue pressuring his country.
2- A new security alliance taking shape in the Sahel:
Amidst the ongoing pressures and political and economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS on Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the three countries have decided to withdraw from the G5 Sahel alliance, which was supported by France. In September 2023, they announced the establishment of a new security alliance called the Sahel States Alliance (AES). The purpose of this alliance is to facilitate joint cooperation and provide support to any member state facing internal or external threats.
3- Decline of French influence:
The recent years witnessed a continuous decline in French influence in the Sahel region and West Africa. Military councils governing countries that experienced military coups sought to sever ties with Paris and expel French forces, opting instead to strengthen relations with Russia. While elements of the Russian Wagner Group are already in Bamako, recent weeks have seen mutual visits between military officials from Niger and Burkina Faso on one hand, and officials from Russia, on the other. Russia is currently working to solidify its permanent presence in the Sahel region, aiming to replace Wagner operations with an African Legion under the Russian Ministry of Defense. Western reports have revealed that Russia has already deployed troops in Burkina Faso.
4- Erosion of traditional powers' influence in West Africa:
The decision of the three countries to withdraw from ECOWAS reflects the erosion of traditional powers' influence in West Africa, particularly Nigeria, and the waning control over the regional bloc and its decisions. This withdrawal decision presents a significant test for Nigeria's new president, Bola Tinubu, who is also the current president of ECOWAS. Tinubu, who sought to enhance Nigeria's influence in the region as a dominant regional power, was a prominent supporter of military intervention in Niger after its recent coup in July 2023. However, his intentions were opposed by several other members of the bloc, ultimately leading to its abandonment.
Possible Repercussions
Several potential repercussions may arise from the decision of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to withdraw from the ECOWAS. These can be summarized as follows:
1- Zero-sum game:
The withdrawal decision implies a zero-sum game that will result in losses for all parties involved. While the three countries are aware of this fact, the severe sanctions imposed on them may have compelled them to take this step to pressure the bloc. Some reports have compared the three countries’ decision to exit ECOWAS to the UK's Brexit but in an African context. This decision is expected to have negative economic repercussions, especially given the poverty levels in these countries. Additionally, their exit will deprive them of access to the sea and the ECOWAS common market, affecting the movement of goods, people, and capital.
On the other hand, the withdrawal of the three countries may weaken the bloc, undermining its influence in the region. Additionally, it may have implications for the West African Monetary Union (WAMU) and the ECOWAS common market. The erosion of ECOWAS's influence is linked to declining popular support in West Africa, as citizens feel that the bloc has failed to represent their interests or effectively utilize the region's abundant natural resources. Furthermore, the three countries that withdrew from ECOWAS are particularly angered by the catastrophic repercussions of the bloc's sanctions, which failed to yield any tangible political results.
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso's withdrawal from ECOWAS is expected to affect the freedom of movement of citizens, trade, and financial flows between ECOWAS member states, leading to an expected increase in customs duties on goods and individuals, further pressuring the regional bloc.
2- Possible new cracks in ECOWAS:
The upcoming ECOWAS meetings aim to persuade the three countries to reconsider their withdrawal from the regional bloc. This includes lifting or at least easing the economic sanctions imposed on them. There are concerns about potential divisions within ECOWAS if an agreement cannot be reached on convincing the three countries to retract their withdrawal decision. Notably, some member states, such as Togo, have previously opposed the sanctions imposed on the three countries.
This approach aligns with a report from the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), which revealed a general sentiment in several ECOWAS member states that perceive the regional bloc as a Western tool in the region. Several of these countries aim to emancipate themselves from this influence, suggesting the possibility of additional divisions within the bloc.
3- Anticipated new regional alliance:
Recent developments strongly indicate that nations affected by military coups are seeking to establish a new regional alliance. Reports from the West hint at the potential for a fresh wave of military coups in West Africa, with these nations aligning themselves with the anticipated regional coalition. This trend is fueled by a growing belief among military leaders that there are insufficient deterrents to prevent them from seizing power.
4- Expansion of terrorist groups into the Gulf of Guinea:
Certain reports caution that if the three countries were to withdraw from ECOWAS and face economic sanctions, there is a risk that terrorist groups could extend their influence from the Sahel region to the stable coastal countries in the Gulf of Guinea, including Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. This scenario could worsen security challenges in the region and present additional security threats to these countries.
5- Escalation of international competition in the region:
The decisions of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to withdraw from ECOWAS indicate their intention to form a new regional bloc with strong ties to Russia. This contrasts with ECOWAS, which maintains close relations with the United States and Europe. This aligns with the ISPI's report, which highlights increased international involvement in the Sahel and West Africa, transforming the region into a battleground for global powers, with significant implications for future events.
In conclusion, the decision of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to withdraw from ECOWAS sets the stage for a new phase of regional and international alignments in West Africa. However, there are unanswered questions regarding the success of the three countries' efforts to form alternative political, economic, and military blocs in the region, especially given the increasing challenges facing these fragile states. Meanwhile, the future of ECOWAS remains uncertain, particularly with the bloc's failure to effectively address the changes and threats faced by some of its member states, notably the risks posed by terrorist groups.
