The recent conflict between Israel and Gaza brought the U.S’ stance on supporting Israel into sharper focus. This is particularly true following the Hamas attacks in October. Questions have been raised about the U.S' support for the right-wing Israeli government and its alignment with human rights and international humanitarian law. The delicate balance between backing Israel as a "state" and endorsing the policies of a "government" with a right-wing agenda, which some view as detrimental to American interests in the Middle East, is now under scrutiny.
The significance of this is further heightened by the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November. Discussions are centred around Biden’s administration policies within the Democratic and Republican parties, with a particular emphasis on the voting preferences of influential groups such as American Jews, Arabs, Muslims, and independent voters.
This article explores the evidence and paradoxes shaping the American electoral landscape in light of the Gaza conflict.
A Political Paradox
The 2024 electoral race between Democrats and Republicans presents an intriguing paradox. Voters who are critical of President Joe Biden's pro-Israel stance on the war on Gaza find themselves unwelcome in the opposing Republican camp. If these dissenting voters were to shift to the Republican Party due to their critique of the official U.S. policy towards Tel Aviv, they might find acceptance on social issues, immigration policies, or the stance on Ukraine. However, when it comes to U.S.-Israel relations, a different narrative unfolds, where their voices may not be embraced.
Republicans, particularly those in the staunch conservative faction, are against pressuring Israel to limit its actions in Gaza. They criticize the White House for trying to influence Benjamin Netanyahu's government. On the other hand, within the Democratic camp, divisions are growing between centrist and progressive factions who oppose supporting the Israeli military operation. Progressives believe that the U.S. is compromising its principles by tolerating actions that go beyond humanitarian and international law boundaries. Republicans aim to outdo President Biden by strongly supporting the Israeli military operation against Hamas in Gaza, potentially fracturing the traditional Jewish consensus favouring the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party: Internal Fractures
The schism within the progressive faction of the Democratic Party is evident as Senator John Fetterman criticizes the party's perceived anti-Israel stance and expresses unwavering support for the Israeli government. Fetterman, who was previously associated with Senator Bernie Sanders, rejects what he refers to as "purity tests" conducted by progressive supporters against dissenting voices.
Moreover, pro-Israel groups within the Democratic Party are intensifying their financial support for candidates who can replace progressive lawmakers sympathetic to Palestinians in the November elections. The Squad, a progressive group, is being targeted by the nationalistic faction within the party that supports Israel. Their goal is to oust them in the primaries as a warning to any candidate advocating for a ceasefire without Israel achieving a decisive victory over Hamas and the Al-Qassam Brigades. Some Democrats believe that lawmakers who are critical of Israel are inadvertently serving Republican interests by portraying the Democratic Party as susceptible to left-wing influence.
The Republican Party: Key Lies in Supporting Israel
Republicans are strategizing for the upcoming November elections with two main goals in mind. First, they aim to consolidate their voter base by opposing Democratic policies. Second, they are making efforts to woo American Jewish voters away from the Democratic Party.
Traditionally, Democrats have secured over 75% of the American Jewish vote in previous elections. However, republican leaders, especially Trump, are highlighting the Democratic divisions over Israel as a major flaw that deserves punishment at the ballot box. They argue that the White House has no right to interfere in internal affairs by dictating changes within Netanyahu's government.
Furthermore, the evangelical Christian bloc, a powerful force that supports Donald Trump and is closely aligned with conservative Jewish groups, exerts its influence within the Republican Party. The years of the Trump administration were notably advantageous for Netanyahu, as he received a peace plan from the former Republican president that granted one-third of the West Bank and effectively put an end to the two-state solution.
Republicans often view the Gaza conflict through a partisan lens, associating it with what they perceive as President Biden's shortcomings in international affairs. Recent polls indicate that a significant majority of Republicans (76%), particularly among evangelical Christians (over 80%), express sympathy towards Israel. In contrast, Democratic support for Israel stands at 31%, while 34% lean towards Palestinians, and only 16% show sympathy for both parties.
On the other hand, a pronounced division has emerged among different groups of American Jews in response to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza. This divide is particularly evident between the younger demographic who staunchly support the Israeli government's policies, and those who view the government's rhetoric as a flagrant disregard for human rights. The latter sentiment is fueled by the government's extremist statements that incite violence against civilians, likening them to subhuman creatures and advocating for the eradication of the Gaza Strip. These contrasting stances raise deeper questions within American society, prompting other segments to scrutinize Israeli behaviour, especially after criticism emanated from within the Jewish community itself.
The developments underscore that supporting Israel is a nuanced and complex matter influenced by internal dynamics within both parties, which shape positions during elections. Anticipating a significant change in Israel's support necessitates fundamental shifts in U.S. foreign policy- a process which may take years and require a profound alteration in the American political landscape.
