German Chancellor Olaf Scholz concluded his tour to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE on 25 September. Analysts have extensively followed his trip to the region as it came at a highly sensitive time for Europe which is facing an energy crisis. Much speculation has been given about how the leader of Europe’s political and economic giant could bag much-needed alternatives to Russian dwindling gas, but his visit is about more than just securing gas.  

The Timing of the Visit

Scholz’ timing comes during a global turmoil and an unprecedented energy crisis looming over Europe. The continent has sorely felt the costs of the war in Ukraine. Ahead of his visit to the Gulf region, Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first in three months and discussed the energy crisis. Putin blamed the West and especially Europe’s sanctions for the disruption of Nord Stream pipeline supplies.

The telephone call is important in the context of Scholz’ visit to the GCC region. Scholz’ attempt at diplomacy with Putin was futile, and so he turned to the GCC states who are among the largest energy exporters in the world to help save Europe from an exceptionally cold winter.

Yet it is worth mentioning that the German president’s visit was not only to secure gas supplies. The GCC states have taken a much bigger role on the regional and international stage. Understanding the region’s strategic significance, Scholz sought to align Germany’s interests with the region’s ambitious vision. The GCC-German trade was estimated at $19 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow in the coming decade. The potential for strategic partnership is large: on the one hand, Germany is looking to diversify its energy sources beyond Russia; on the other, the GCC states are looking to grow their non-oil GDP share, so Germany’s weight as a leading industrial country is key. 

Scholz’ Aims

Chancellor Scholz planted a tree at a mangrove park in the UAE on Sunday, a token nod to environmentalism, but more importantly, to securing new fossil fuel supplies and forging fresh alliances in response to Russia. As winter nears, Europe desperately looks for alternative gas sources. Scholz, therefore, did not visit all five countries of the Gulf, but mainly the three states that could meet his country’s gas needs in the immediate term. Thus, the geopolitical implications of his visit could be significant.

It would be difficult to predict whether the German chancellor was entirely successful in his aim to replace Russia’s gas. What is certain, nevertheless, are two things: first, the GCC states would not change their ‘positive neutrality’ stance, to maintain credibility to broker a resolution to the war; and second, they would stick to OPEC+ production agreement, avoiding further turmoil in global market.

The energy objective also spills into a larger economic issue. While 40% of Germany’s gas is imports, the country is bracing itself for an unprecedented economic recession. Notably, Scholz’s delegation mostly included economy advisors and experts. The aim of his visit is not only to shop for gas but also to promote investment partnerships to stimulate Germany’s economy.

Scholz’ other unannounced goal would have been asking for the Gulf’s mediation with Putin to end the war. Previously, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman successfully mediated a deal between Russia and Ukraine to exchange prisoners from 5 different nationalities. A peace deal is needed more than ever as Putin alludes to the use of nuclear weapons in protecting what he considers legitimate claims to Russia’s sovereignty.

Also, the German chancellor’s visit comes ahead of a planned visit by UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed’s before the end of this year to meet US President Jo Biden, who extended an invitation to Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed during the Jeddah summit in July. Scholz is keen to prioritise a solution to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has hit Europe hard, pushing some European countries to resort to coal fuel in place of gas.

Significant Indications

Scholz’s visit carries four significant traits, which can be characterised as follows:

1. The GCC states have become important global players:

The region’s gas and oil boom is happening alongside the growing importance of its political status. Before Scholz, two other leaders of major powers visited the region, namely Biden and UK Prime Minister Borris Johnson. The region has become a key player in world politics, as demonstrated by Scholz’s visit.   

2. The Gulf oil is indispensable:

Western analysts underestimated Europe’s need for Gulf oil. Whilst much speculation has been given the future of energy after fossil fuels, Scholz’s visit clearly reveals inconsistency in Western discourse covering the Arab Gulf region and the reality of the global energy market. While much criticism by the West has been given to the Gulf states in the past, clearly the West remains in much need of the Gulf’s energy and trade.

3. Germany looks to the Gulf as it diversifies its energy:

Speaking to his host Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, Scholz said that Germany’s dependency on a single source of energy would not be repeated. The German chancellor managed to seal a deal with the UAE to supply gas and diesel. Later that evening, Scholz reached an agreement with Qatar to accelerate gas contracts that had wavered over technical and financial issues between the two countries.

4. The Gulf’s pragmaticism has been key in driving the interest of the West:

Away from ideological alliances, the Gulf states are focused on securing their political and economic interests. The UAE is the clearest among its neighbours, having articulated its vision for the next 50 years.

Preference to pragmatism enabled the Gulf to assume a unique position in a global power competition between China and Russia on the one side, and the US and the West on the other. Having remained neutral, the Gulf could prioritise its security and economic interests away from direct confrontation with either sides. A recent example is the US-Iran nuclear negotiations: although an agreement would not be in the Gulf’s best interest, they maintained diplomacy towards US and its policy on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The ongoing shift in global politics is therefore worth considering. Scholz’s visit could be examined through a broader lens taking into account factors beyond the narrow economic implications of Russia’s operation in Ukraine. The visit reflects deeper trends of re-engineering of global energy flows, and the remaking of geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and beyond to achieve stability and security during delicate times. The Gulf has emerged as a model in economic development and strategic vision that prioritises security and stability above ideological aims.

In summary, the German chancellor’s visit goes beyond shopping for gas. It reveals a deeper understanding by the West of the gorwing importance of the Gulf as a global player in the new era of non-fossil energy. The war in Ukraine marks the begging of this era, and the West’s relation with the Gulf as a result will change significantly in future.