The Middle East has always been the subject of and a prolific generator of conspiracy theory. Contemporary history alone and remnants of decades of old European colonialism provide a rich source and more than justify many of the region’s misgivings. With the Sykes-Picot agreement France, Britain and the assent of Russia and Italy conspired to divide the spoils of the Turkish Empire after World War I, before the former two schemed to split the Russian share of the spoils after the Czar left the scene. This was coupled with false commitments made to Arab leaders to support the establishment of a large Arab State in the Levant. More than half a century later, the 2003 American invasion of Iraq under the false pretence of weapons of mass destruction acquisition provides fertile ground for credible conspiracy theories, and there are many more in relation to the Arab Israeli conflict, Gulf security and North Africa.
Varying US approaches
The wealth of resources in the region, its strategic location increased the region’s geopolitical attractiveness during the Cold War competition. Major powers did not shy away from publicly declaring these interests, such as the Carter Doctrine regarding US energy interests in the region announced on January 23, 1980.
On the other hand, the former President Obama’s announcement that he was determined to pivot towards Asia reflected a diminished United States interest in the region, reflected an increasing disinterest, albeit with a rather naïve assumption about a major power’s ability to shift substantially away from the Middle East.
Later on, President Trump, while disinterested in the region’s security, approached the region in a transactional fashion, possibly beneficial in the short term, but unwise for all as interest in the region continued to diminish.
Currently, President Biden has talked about the return to traditional diplomacy and a reduction of operational military activity. In the lead up to his July visit to Jeddah, some sources published a robust number of scenarios for wide ranging high profile American/Israeli/Arab summits and the possibility of establishing a NATO-like Middle East Defence Alliance against Iran, which proved to be unacceptable even by some of America’s closest allies.
The hyperbole around the visit and ambiguity regarding where Biden really stood, nevertheless did not mask his increased need for Arab States to help stabilize oil markets. The opacity led some to ask, whether the visit was a first step towards a conspiratorial restructuring of the region. An equally relevant question was whether the region was in fact restructuring itself, with America simply playing a complementary, if important, role. I lean towards the second scenario.
In fact, President Biden has attempted to be anti-Trump in addressing the region, but found this difficult due to the economic ramifications of Covid-19 and Ukrainian crisis with a close eye on the imminent political consequences in the November mid-term elections. He thus navigated politically to preserve achievements of the previous administration, i.e. the Abraham Accords without enthusiastically embracing them, while focusing on energy thus catering to the economic interests of his electorate.
The geopolitical shift in the region
With the domestic and geopolitical shifts occurring, Arabs should recognize that change is ongoing and will continue mostly, because very few in the Arab World are satisfied with their regional or domestic circumstances. In parallel, Iran, Israel and Turkey are also all going through their respective recalibrations albeit with different perspectives and have already adopted more assertive regional policies.
Noteworthy, is that the Arab world is percolating much more actively in West Asia, increasingly separating its Asian and African components. Recently, North African countries have had minimal consultations between them and the League of Arab States has been unable to meet at summit level for a considerable time. This will have negative consequences on the balance of power with strong regional adversaries. There was never complete uniformity and consensus in the Arab World, and regional multilateralism is more complicated than sub-regionalism, nevertheless there was strength in numbers.
All Middle Eastern States, particularly in the Arab world have been revisiting their national security paradigms in particular, with greater emphasis on the regionalization of conflicts and their resolution. This will require stronger national and regional national security capabilities, which cannot be overemphasized given that the US is determined to reduce its potential military operability in the region. This was highlighted in Biden’s pre-visit statement declaring that he was to be the first president to visit the region, when there were no active American combat forces, and is highly indicative.
Middle Eastern states have been overly dependent on American and Western security assistance; therefore, they are going through their own recalibration of international and regional relations. A case in point is the “The Jerusalem Declaration” which reaffirmed in writing the commitment of the United States not to allow Iran the acquisition of nuclear weapons, without constraining Israel’s right to act unilaterally. This reminds me of a previous commitment given by Henry Kissinger after the October 1973 Arab Israeli War when Israel feared that America’s quest for détente with the Soviet Union could generate undue pressure on it towards peace-making. Without informing Egypt, in that document the United States committed that it would not formally suggest peace bridging proposals before first clearing them with Israel.
The recent events in Ukraine were a stark reminder that a potential cold war with Russia and China mitigates against total American withdrawal from the region, therefore a recalibration of relations with the region rather than a pivot from it is to be expected. As inevitable increasing Chinese interest in markets and energy it will have a greater stake in the region Middle Eastern states will have to delicately balance relations as America becomes more sensitive.
Relations between Biden administration Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia have stabilized lately prior to his visit to the region. However, work is still required to raise the level of cooperation and determine optimum sustainable levels. And, none of this will occur before the congressional election in November. Yet, the Jeddah Summit was testimony that Real Politic trumps Biden’s election rhetoric.
The new realities in the region
Irrespective of the interests or policies of others, the Arab world must proactively engage in agenda setting for the future and enunciate its visions for their nations and region, be that with respect to its political, economic and security architecture. Demographically, over 60% of the Arab world population is below 30 years of age, their experiences and realities are different from the generations before. Their aspirations extend far beyond the borders of nation states. Consequently, change is inevitable and not necessarily a source of instability if witnessed incrementally and governed by legitimate aspirations in the region.
Major powers do not look towards the Middle East with the same emphasise or urgency, as they did in the past. Therefore, more and more we are duty bond to become more self-dependent, increasingly self-managing our interests and finding creative solutions to resolve differences on the basis of a “balance of interests” rather than on the “balance of power. “
In doing so, I cannot overemphasize the importance of the rule of law as a core principle and parameter in international relations, especially on national security issues. All states in the region are small or medium in size. Thus, respect for international law by friend and foe constitutes a condition sine qua non for security and stability of all. Again, we must create a sustainable “balance of interest” in the region without succumbing to prevailing “balances of power” as Arab increasingly play a greater role in determine their future. Patience and determination are of the essence as recalibration and restructuring of the region will not be resolved in one stroke or concluded in the near term. However, increased Arab consultation and cooperation as well as proactive regional engagement in resolving and addressing regional issues will diminish the credibility of most conspiracy theories and enhance the ability and stature of the Arab world. Embracing the inevitability of new challenges and opportunities, while responding to them individually, as well as collectively whenever possible, is imperative to assure our best interests.
Former Foreign Minister of Egypt
Dean Emeritus American University in Cairo
