Observers noted a resurgence of al-Qaeda’s activity in Yemen over the current year, 2022, following a downturn over recent years. Several factors enabled the terrorist organization’s resurgence launching effective attacks impacting the personnel of the country’s security and military establishments. The development raised concerns at home and across the region and the world that the organization has built up its strength and recruited new members at its areas of operation in the governorates of Abyan, Shabwa, al-Baidha and Hadrmaut.
Recurrent attacks
The following outline shows a timeline of the recent violent attacks carried out this year by al-Qaeda causing heavy casualties and material damage and terrorizing Yemenis in affected areas.
- February 11, 2022. Al-Qaeda abducted five United Nations staff members while on their way from Abyan to Aden. The organization demanded a ransom of USD 5 million to release the hostages. The five workers are still in captivity.
- March 15, 2022. A car bomb driven by suicide militants struck the convoy of a Yemeni southern military commander in Abyan province, Brigadier General Abdul Latif al-Sayed, a long-time foe of the terror organization, who was injured in the bombing while four of his guards were killed.
- April 14, 2022. Al-Qaeda was able to free ten of its elements from the central prison in Seyoun city in Hadramaut. The significant operation revealed a security breach inside the Yemeni armed forces.
- May 6, 2022. Two Yemeni security high-ranking officers were killed in an attack carried out by al-Qaeda on a security facility in al-Dhalea governorate. Five of the assailants were killed in the attack.
- June 22, 2022. Al-Qaeda carried out two concerted attacks on a checkpoint manned by the Shabwa defense force near Ataq city, and a patrol in Ahwar district at a military outpost in Abyan. Ten Yemeni soldiers were killed and 7 others were injured.
- September 6, 2022. Al-Qaeda’s bloodiest attack hit a security checkpoint in Ahwar district in Abyan governorate, killing 21 personnel of the Security Belt forces, which are part of the Southern Transitional Council, and at least six al-Qaeda militants were injured.
- September 12, 2022. Three soldiers of the Security Belt forces were killed and 6 others were injured by a bomb explosion while they were chasing a number of al-Qaeda militants in Abyan.
Multiple implications
Al-Qaeda’s recent attacks in southern Yemen have several implications the most significant of which are as follows:
1- Significant planning capability:
The recurrent attacks show al-Qaeda’s high-preparedness and pre-planning capability. This activity and relevant mechanisms show al-Qaeda’s ability to plan and implement attacks in multiple areas in several governorates. It also shows the group’s high mobility and ability to strike critical security outposts as well as its significant material and human resources.
2- High organizational capability:
This enabled al-Qaeda to reorganize its members and select new leaders despite the elimination of several leaders including Nasir al-Wuhayshi, Qasim al-Raymi and Anwar Anwar al-Awlaki and others in recent years. The organization was also able to recruit new members to further enhance its efficiency and expand its scope of operation.
3- Taking advantage of local conflicts:
Al-Qaeda took advantage of rifts, conflicts and power struggles within society which led to internal conflicts within the state institutions and were used by the organization to penetrate society.
4- Taking advantage of divisions within the legitimate government:
Instability in some areas under the legitimate government enabled new influential organizations that are outside the control of the government to emerge and cause insecurity and instability and spread chaos. These nascent organizations include al-Qaeda which expanded, and recruited more elements using well-known camps in the mountains and valleys of southern governorates in particular. Moreover, the fragile economic structure and political conflict within the legitimate government were used by the organization to attract foreign funding to further expand its activities.
5- Resisting changes under the legitimate government:
The interests of certain groups were damaged by the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council in April. Some observers refer to the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, known as al-Islah, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resurgence of al-Qaeda’s activity coincided with the latest change within the legitimate government and the formation of the new council led by Rashad al-Alaimi. Moreover, societal and political power centers impacted by the change perhaps moved to use “tools” to try to shuffle the cards and influence and even undermine the new change.
6- Convergence of interests between terror organizations:
The Houthi militia and al-Qaeda are publicly accused of having common interests. When a UN-brokered truce between the legitimate government and the Houthi militia went into effect in April, al-Qaeda attacks surged only in areas under the control of the legitimate government. This coincided with reports claiming that the Houthi militia released a number of al-Qaeda elements after spending years in jail. Some even emphasize that there is a deal between the two groups whereby al-Qaeda militants would move into areas under the control of the legitimate government to launch attacks on its institutions and secure their bases in al-Baidha to use them as a launching pad for their attacks.
Causes of the resurgence
The following reasons perhaps explain why al-Qaeda resumed its activity and increased its attacks.
1- Instability across Yemen:
Some areas under the control of the legitimate government are reeling under political, economic and security instability because of the newly-established Presidential Leadership Council’s inability to change the reality and enforce state control. The situation enabled al-Qaeda to re-emerge and resume its activity and try to present itself as an influential organization in Yemen taking advantage of chaos in areas under the control of the legitimate government.
2- Countering Shi’ite influence:
The Houthi militia imposed Twelver Shi’ism in northern Yemen triggering a reaction from Sunnis, especially those following the Shafiʽi school, who allowed al-Qaeda to re-emerge in their areas because of their concern that the Houthi militias would impose their Shi’ism on them. Some people from these areas believe that al-Qaeda represents a defense front line inside areas controlled by the legitimate government that blocks any progress by the Houthis. This may not be consistent with what appears to be a convergence of interests of the Houthis and al-Qaeda. Although there are signs that the two groups have common goals, these goals are dictated by the circumstances.
3- Responding to the legitimate government’s military operations:
The terror attacks carried out by al-Qaeda in Yemen were partially in response to the military operations launched by the Southern Transitional Council backed the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy. The offensives are aimed at reducing the influence and threats of al-Qaeda. The transitional council launched an operation called Arrows of the East on August 22 to protect Abyan from terrorist activity. On September 10, it launched the “Arrows of the South” to eliminate terrorist elements in Shabwa. Moreover, the southern forces, on September 18, announced that they seized control of the strategic camp in Wadi Omran, al-Qaeda’s largest stronghold.
Approach to confrontation
To counter al-Qaeda and try to eliminate it and dry up its resources in southern Yemen, a favorable local, regional and international environment is required. This can be achieved through solid measures that would enable the legitimate government to enforce its influence and the rule of law, merge the army and security forces, train and arm all troops based on patriotism and consistent national loyalty as well as unify efforts and close ranks. This goal can only be achieved by more efforts from the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy while working on furthering agreement and bridging the gap over whatever points of disagreement.
The conclusion therefore is that all terror organizations and violent groups flourish in a favorable local, regional and international environment that can be used to serve the interests of multiples parties.
