Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
has visited the United Arab Emirates for the second time in his close to
four-year tenure, as a special guest of the 6th World Government Summit – an
annual conference held to discuss evolving trends.[1] The current edition
of this event was centrally focused on ‘advancing happiness’, while touching
upon aspects of big data and climate change among others. [2]
These developments signify a period
of robust relations between the two nations, since their independence in the
years 1947 and 1972 respectively. This article looks at the upswing in the
current relationship between UAE and India, while exploring the various
dimensions of this bond.
Exploring Linkages
India and UAE’s relationship have
been on an incremental rise over the past years. In modern history, the two
nations have been interlinked due to three main aspects namely; economic
migration, energy purchase and trade of goods.
Firstly, Indian blue and
white-collar migrant workers have played a significant role in the development
of the Gulf nations. Many Indians, mainly from the coastal regions such as
Kerala, Karnataka and Gujarat have migrated to UAE, especially since the 1980’s.
There has been a steady rise in the number of Indian expats from just under 1
million in the year 2000 to about 3.3 million in the year 2017.[3]
Those expats have provided the largest sources of remittances to India
contributing almost 62 billion USD to the economy in the year 2016. [4]
Secondly, India has also been a
major buyer of oil, especially after 1991 when the Soviet Union, India’s main
oil supplier, disintegrated. This was also accompanied with an exponential
increase in energy requirements, due to India’s adoption of liberal economic
reforms, which spurred infrastructure industries across the country. Thus,
India’s trade in oil with the UAE surpassed 250 billion USD in the past five
years. [5]
Thirdly, India has also been a
major exporter of goods to the UAE, currently occupying the position of the
UAE’s largest trade partner. According to an Indian Ministry of External
Affairs brief, India has a diverse basket of goods that is exported to the UAE
including “Petroleum Products, Precious Metals, Stones, Gems & Jewellery,
Minerals, Food Items, Textiles and Engineering & Machinery Products and
Chemicals”, among others. [6]
Gradual Shifts
In the recent years, the changing
geopolitical context of the Asian continent have impelled the two countries to
come closer to each other. During the presidency of Barack Obama in the United
States’ (2008 – 2016), the US began to gradually disengage from the Middle
Eastern nations, following an expensive war in Iraq and increasing attempts to
sustain its energy independence.[7]
India seized this opportunity to step up its defense and security relations
with the Arab nations including the UAE.[8]
Under Prime Minister Modi’s
stewardship, the two nations experienced an even quicker convergence of foreign
policy interests. Significantly, his Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan,
Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE armed forces,
attended India’s Republic day celebration on January 26, 2017, an event that
elevated the two states’ relationship to a strategic partnership.[9]
During this visit, PM Modi urged UAE to bring about peace and stability in
South Asia and signed several pacts on issues of strategic importance. Thus, a few
new features are prominently highlighted in the dialogues between the two
nations.
The first of these features is the defense
pacts that are beginning to form the cornerstone of the new Indian-Emirati relations,
given India’s desire to expand ties beyond just migration and oil. This was
seen when UAE expressed its interest in India’s ‘Make in India’ Defense
projects, whereby it would buy military equipment from India.[10]
Furthermore, the two countries have also conducted various joint military
drills and training programmes to encourage better military-military contact
and further promote cooperation. [11]
Secondly, maritime cooperation is
another field that has been gathering steam. In this regard, the first
strategic dialogue held in January 2017 noted the need "to provide further
impetus to these relations, including through joint exercises, training of
naval, air and land forces, as also in the area of coastal defense and through
participation in defense exhibitions etc."[12] For New Delhi, the
Arab Gulf nations and their water ways serve as important gateways to export
and import goods into parts of West Asia.
Furthermore, India has been
involved in conducting various naval exercises with the Arab nations including
UAE, Oman and the Saudi Arabia among others to enhance capacities and deal with
larger challenges. These exercises and ties are also important for UAE and the
neighboring region, given the current level of instability in larger West Asia that
often threatens to block strategic chokepoints along the littorals of these
countries, cutting off valuable sources of oil income. [13]
Finally, India has also begun to ramp up its joint counter terrorism efforts with UAE and the other gulf nations. Due to the advent of the Islamic State and its targeting of various governments across the world, both UAE and India have become cognizant of the latent threat of Jihadist militants in their respective countries. This concern was amplified with the discovery, arrests and deportations of various Indian Islamic State branches in UAE like the Ras al Khaimah Module and the Abu Dhabi cell, as well as ideologues such as Nicky Joseph who was involved in recruiting Indians for the group.[14] Thus, the two countries have begun to incorporate better information sharing mechanisms and mechanisms to crack down on terror financing.
New Avenues
Going forward, there will be many
new avenues and challenges that will confront the two countries. Among the most lucrative of options for boosting
bilateral relations is the increase of trade to about 100 billion dollars by
2020.[15]
Currently, the UAE's investments in India are distributed across five sectors:
construction development (16 percent), energy (14 percent), metallurgical
industries (10 percent), services (10 percent), and computer software and
hardware (5 percent).[16]
With the current administration’s mantra of development featuring as a mainstay
of advancing economy, India will definitely hope to clinch many new business
deals in these sectors and others to ensure these relations come to fruition.
Moreover, both India and the UAE
will also have to deal with new evolving challenges such as automation and the
consequent disruption of the traditional labor industry, which will undoubtedly
affect the flow of labor from India to UAE. Additionally, challenges like fake
news and its effects on communal harmony is something that both countries can
work towards. Given that these factors have already sparked off tensions in
part of India, addressing such challenges raise new talking points which also
enhances cooperation. [17]
Policy makers, however, need to
keep many other limiting factors in mind too. The UAE prides itself as one
among the islands of stability in an ocean of unstable middle-eastern nations.
This regional chaos will always be a threat lurking in the background demanding
higher expenditure towards security and defense of the nation. Moreover,
India’s shaky progress in implementing new infrastructure deals domestically
casts doubts on its ability to deliver on some of its joint investment
projects.[18]
This can be a cause for slowing progress between the two nations in the future.
In sum, bilateral relations between
the two nations, which was characterized by the exchange of labour, oil and
other goods, now witnesses new advancements in the field of mutual defense,
naval and counter terrorism interests. Given the increased interdependence of
India and UAE, robust bilateral ties are expected to be a feature of the
relationship that will not change except under phenomenal circumstances.
[1] ‘PM
Narendra Modi to visit UAE; will address World Government Summit in Dubai’. Khaleej Times. February 05,2018. http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/pm-narendra-modi-to-visit-uae-to-address-world-government-summit-in-dubai/1051859/
[2]
“Agenda”. World Government Summit. https://www.worldgovernmentsummit.org/annual-gathering/2017/agenda
[3] “UAE
has largest number of Indian migrants in world”. Khaleej Times. December 19,2017. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/international/UAE-has-largest-number-of-Indian-migrants-in-world
[4]
Cleofe Maceda, “Top 3 countries that receive highest remittances from UAE, rest
of the world”. Gulf News. June
19,2017. http://gulfnews.com/business/money/top-3-countries-that-receive-highest-remittances-from-uae-rest-of-the-world-1.2045783
[5]
“6-year UAE-India trade passes Dh760b”. Gulf
News. November 16,2017. http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/government/6-year-uae-india-trade-passes-dh760b-1.2125886
[6]
“India-UAE Relations”. Ministry of
External Affairs Brief. June 2015. http://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/12_UAE_Nov_2017.pdf
[7]
Shivshankar Menon. “Asia’s New Geopolitics”. Asia’s New Geopolitics. December 22,2015. https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/ISAS%20Reports/ISAS%20Working%20Papers%20No.%20279-%20Asia's%20New%20Geopolitics.pdf
[8]
Ibid
[9]
Kallol Bhattacharyajee. “India, UAE sign strategic partnership pact”. The Hindu. January 25,2017. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/India-UAE-sign-strategic-partnership-pact/article17094122.ece
[10]
Ibid
[11]
Meena Singh Roy and Mohammed Mudassir Qasim. “India - UAE Relations: New
Dimension to Strategic Partnership. IDSA
Issue Brief. February 17,2017. https://idsa.in/issuebrief/india-uae-relations_msroy_170217
[12] “India,
UAE hold first strategic dialogue” Indian
Express. January 21,2017. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-uae-hold-first-strategic-dialogue-4484355/
[13]
Meena Singh Roy and Mohammed Mudassir Qasim. “India - UAE Relations: New
Dimension to Strategic Partnership. IDSA
Issue Brief. February 17,2017. https://idsa.in/issuebrief/india-uae-relations_msroy_170217
[14]
Mohammed Sinan Siyech. “India-Gulf Counterterrorism Cooperation”. Middle East Institute MAP series. December
21,2017. http://www.mei.edu/content/map/india-gulf-counterterrorism-cooperation
[15] “India,
UAE trade to hit $100 billion by 2020: CII”. Business Standard. February 15,2017. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-uae-trade-to-hit-100-billion-by-2020-cii-117021500450_1.html
[16]
Abdul Khader Bisnal and Fareed Rahman. “UAE investments in India rise as trade
relations strengthen”. Gulf News. October
16,2017. http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/uae-investments-in-india-rise-as-trade-relations-strengthen-1.1908891
[17]
Sandip Roy. “2017 saw fake news entering the mainstream, and us getting quite
comfortable with it”. Economic Times. December
29,2017. https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/2017-saw-fake-news-entering-the-mainstream-and-us-getting-quite-comfortable-with-it/
[18] Shine
Jacob Megha Manchanda & Rajesh Bhayani. “Project delays, cost overruns
continue to plague infra sector”. Business
Standard. August 19,2017. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/project-delays-cost-overruns-continue-to-plague-infra-sector-117081900073_1.html