The results of the British general elections showed a significant advance for the Labour Party. After the results of 648 out of 650 constituencies were announced, the Labour Party secured 412 seats, an increase of 214 seats compared to the previous elections. Meanwhile, voter support for the Conservative Party has declined significantly, obtaining only 121 seats, a decrease of 251 seats from the previous election. The Liberal Democrats also made gains, while the Scottish National Party experienced a substantial decline.
Electoral Implications
The results from some constituencies clearly reflected the British political landscape's shift towards the Labour Party. Key points include:
1. Conservatives' defeat:
A. Historical loss of seats: The Conservative Party's seat count is the lowest since it was named "Conservatives" in 1830. Prior to this, its worst result was 156 seats in 1906.
B. Complete collapse of support in certain constituencies: In the Nuneaton constituency, the Conservative Party experienced a significant drop, losing about 32% of the votes it previously held. However, this did not translate into significant gains for the Labour Party, which only increased its vote share by 5.4%.
C. Voters' shift from Conservatives to Labour: In the South Swindon constituency, there was a 16% shift in votes from the Conservatives to Labour. The Labour Party only needed a 12.7% swing to win the seat, making this the largest shift from Conservatives to Labour in any British constituency since World War II.
D. Loss of key Conservative figures: Several prominent Conservative figures, including eight ministers from Rishi Sunak's current government, lost their parliamentary seats. Among those who lost their seats were Defense Minister Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt in North Portsmouth, former Prime Minister Liz Truss, Justice Minister Alex Chalk, Education Minister Gillian Keegan, Culture Minister Lucy Frazer, and former Justice Minister Sir Robert Buckland.
E. Humiliating defeat in Wales and Scotland: The Conservative Party suffered a humiliating wipeout in Wales, losing all its seats. In Wales, 32 seats went to Labour, four to Plaid Cymru, and one to the Liberal Democrats. In Scotland, the Conservatives won only five out of 56 seats, the Scottish National Party won nine, the Liberal Democrats five, and Labour 37.
2. Scottish National Party vote collapse:
The SNP won only eight seats compared to 48 in the 2019 elections. Conversely, Labour won nearly 35 seats in Scotland, up from just one seat in 2019.
3. Weak performance by the far-right (Reform UK):
Although the party managed to gain a foothold in the British Parliament, it won only four seats. Party leader Nigel Farage won the Clacton constituency, and the party captured three more seats from the Conservatives in Great Yarmouth, Boston, and Skegness. This result fell short of expectations, which had predicted the party would win 13 seats.
4. Significant gains for the Liberal Democrats:
The Liberal Democrats secured 71 seats, an increase of 63 seats from the 2019 elections. Most of these gains came at the expense of the Conservative Party.
5. Corbyn remains in parliament:
Jeremy Corbyn, who split from the Labour Party, retained his parliamentary seat by defeating the Labour candidate in Islington North. He secured 49.2% of the votes against his Labour rival's 34.4%.
What Caused the Decline of the Conservatives?
The significant loss suffered by the Conservatives in Britain can be attributed to several reasons, including:
1. Economic decline:
The British economy experienced periods of recession over the past year, including in the last quarter of 2023. Mid-February 2024 data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the GDP shrank by 0.3% between October and December, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% contraction. The news of the contraction led to a limited decline in the pound against the dollar and euro. The Office for National Statistics indicated that the manufacturing, construction, and wholesale sectors were the largest contributors to the GDP decline.
2. Misguided policies:
One prominent policy was the tax cuts for the highest income brackets (earning over £150,000 annually) announced by former Prime Minister Liz Truss on September 23, 2022, without clear funding. This led to a historic decline in the pound's exchange rate against other currencies and negatively impacted the reputation of the British economy. Truss later retracted the decision on October 3, 2022, but the negative effects of the policy and the evident government confusion significantly affected the British economy.
3. Healthcare problems:
The healthcare system faced several issues, including long wait times and a shortage of doctors. According to recent polls, these issues placed healthcare at the top of voter priorities, surpassing economic performance and inflation rates.
4. Negative evaluation of Brexit:
Most British citizens now view the decision to leave the EU under the Conservative Party's leadership as detrimental. They see its negative impacts as outweighing the positives. A February 2024 Ipsos poll showed that 52% of Britons believe Brexit's overall effects were negative, compared to 22% who saw them as positive and another 22% who thought they made no difference.
5. Changing support base:
The Conservatives lost significant support from key groups that played a major role in their election in the last general elections. This includes business owners in southern regions affected by Brexit's aftermath and the working class in northern regions, who had shifted their support from Labour to the Conservatives based on Boris Johnson's promises to address previously neglected regions. These groups have now shifted their support back to Labour.
Assessment of the Results
The key implications of the election results are as follows:
1. Punitive voting:
Punitive voting was a significant feature of these elections. Reports indicate that votes for Labour were primarily a punishment for Conservative policies. Some reports also suggested punitive voting against Labour, with voters in traditionally Labour-supporting constituencies casting ballots for marginal parties with no real chance of winning solely to express dissatisfaction with some of Labour's recent positions.
2. Fragmentation of the right-wing voting bloc:
Several factors contributed to the Conservatives' heavy loss. Besides economic issues, internal party divisions, and Liz Truss's disastrous performance, the establishment of the right-wing Reform UK party fragmented the right-wing voting bloc, which typically entirely supported the Conservatives.
3. Weak performance of the far-right:
The far-right performed weakly in the recent British elections compared to most European countries. This is linked to the changing British view on Brexit, led by far-right leader Nigel Farage. Polls indicate that a significant majority of Britons now view Brexit negatively, which has influenced their stance towards the far-right.
4. Potential for another Scottish independence referendum:
The Scottish National Party (SNP) 's significant loss, securing only nine seats, was surprising, as the party had won a majority of seats in Scotland in every general election since 2015 and had managed the local government in the region since 2007. These results may lead to a retreat from organizing a new referendum on Scotland's independence from the UK, as the party had promised to renegotiate for a new referendum if it won a majority in the 2024 elections.
5. Improved performance of the Liberal Democrats:
The substantial improvement in the Liberal Democrats' performance reflects two things: first, the good performance and balanced rhetoric of the party under its current leader, Ed Davey, who took charge in 2020, and second, the cost of allying with the Conservatives and aligning with their policies. The party allied with the Conservatives in the last elections and won only eight seats.
6. Potential splits within the Conservatives:
The Conservative Party may witness internal disputes and mutual accusations among its prominent figures regarding the defeat's causes, raising the likelihood of some figures splitting from the party. Indicators of this began to appear with severe criticism directed at current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak by Suella Braverman as the election results began to emerge.
7. Changing voting patterns:
The results of these elections and the previous ones (2019) indicate a change in the general voting pattern of British citizens. The idea of constituencies traditionally voting for a particular party has significantly declined. Voters have become more capable, assertive, and less tolerant in evaluating their government's performance, making their electoral stances more flexible, less predictable, and more linked to overall performance, especially economic performance, than ideological affiliations to a party or group.
Expected Policies of the Labour Party
The following can be anticipated:
1. Labour forming the government alone:
The results have enabled the Labour Party to form a government without needing alliances with other parties. This will provide greater freedom of movement for the party. For instance, the party will not be obliged to adopt costly green policies, which might have been necessary if allied with the Green Party. This is supported by the party leader Keir Starmer's post-election speech, where he mentioned that the upcoming government would not be bound by specific principles.
2. Reassuring business owners:
The party is likely to continue its approach of engaging with business owners and large corporations. The Labour Party has held meetings and conferences with business owners to alleviate their concerns and break the stereotype that leftist policies typically threaten businesses.
3. Caution in promises:
The Labour Party is expected to continue exercising caution in its promises, particularly regarding economic matters. The Labour Party has learned from the mistake made by Liz Truss during her premiership when she sought tax cuts without securing financial sources to cover them. Hence, the Labour Party will not offer any social incentives without first ensuring the availability of financial resources to cover them.
4. Foreign policy:
It is unlikely that there will be significant changes that would run contrary to the positions and policies of the Conservative Party. This is due to the institutional nature of British foreign policy and the fact that the Labour Party's stance on foreign policy issues is similar to that of the Conservatives. Notable points include:
A. European Union: The Labour Party has declared that there will be no reversal of Brexit, no return to the single market, customs union, or free movement of individuals with the EU. However, the party has emphasized that it will seek to remove unnecessary trade barriers and negotiate bilateral agreements with major European countries, particularly Germany and France.
B. NATO and the Russia-Ukraine War: The Labour Party maintains its commitment to NATO as the cornerstone of global and European security. The party will seek to implement institutional reform programs for multilateral frameworks, including the G7, G20, and NATO. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, Labour has pledged to continue providing financial, military, and political support to Ukraine and to hold Russia accountable for its actions in the war.
C. The Middle East: The party aims to establish lasting peace in the Middle East. It has stated it will seek an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of "hostages," and the enforcement of international law. The Labour Party is committed to recognizing a Palestinian state as a contribution to renewing the peace process, considering this a right for Palestinians and a long-term security measure for Israel.
D. China: The party will adopt a long-term strategy for managing relations with China based on cooperation where possible, competition where necessary, and challenge where required. The Labour Party also pledges support for the Hong Kong community, which has relocated to the UK.
E. India: The party aims to establish a new strategic partnership with India, including a free trade area, and to enhance cooperation in security, education, technology, and climate change.
