The 2024 US presidential elections are headed towards a rematch between incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden and former Republican president Donald Trump, much like in 2020. However, polls show that a considerable portion of voters may not favor a repeat of this binary competition. This raises several questions about the absence of strong alternatives within the major parties. It also raises concerns about what would happen if Biden or Trump were unable to finish the current presidential race? Consequently, what potential scenarios would emerge if that were to happen? Also, what impact do independent candidates have on this year's elections?
Electoral Surprises
Although the primary election races to select candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties are still in their early stages, Biden and Trump secured enough delegate votes on March 12, 2024, thus ensuring their parties’ nomination for the November 5 presidential elections. This is due to a lack of viable alternatives within the parties that are capable of challenging them.
Thus, the primary elections were settled early. However, in any election, surprises may occur. For instance, a candidate may withdraw from the race due to death, among other reasons. This scenario seems likely given the health and legal challenges facing both primary candidates, Biden and Trump. Most opinion polls reflect concerns among voters about Biden's advancing age and whether the 81-year-old is fit enough for another term. This concern intensified following the release of a report by Special Counsel Robert K Hur in February 2024 on Biden's mishandling of classified documents during his tenure as Vice President under Barack Obama. Although the report concludes that there was no evidence to prosecute Biden, it states that Biden is "an elderly man with a poor memory." On the other hand, Donald Trump is running for office while facing approximately 91 criminal charges across four cases, and it remains unclear whether they will be adjudicated before the elections. Even if he were convicted, it might not preclude his candidacy, but it would certainly complicate his stance.
So far, health and legal challenges do not seem to be hindering Biden and Trump's efforts to make headway in the presidential race. However, this state of uncertainty elicits questions about the possible scenarios if either one of them were to withdraw – willingly or not, from the electoral race.
Possible Scenarios
In the event of one of the two candidates dropping out of the presidential race, the situation would no doubt be challenging for both the Democratic and Republican parties, especially in the absence of clear alternatives. Although rules do exist for such scenarios (that vary depending on the timing of the candidate's withdrawal), the United States would nonetheless be entering uncharted territory and an unprecedented situation. The possible scenarios depending on the timing of withdrawal or exit of the candidates are as follows:
1. Up until the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, scheduled for July and August 2024, respectively:
To understand this scenario, it is essential to grasp the nature of the rules governing the primary elections for nominating party candidates. The process is characterized by complexity and a multitude of rules exploited by competitors to impact their nomination prospects. These rules are set by the parties and states and are not constitutionally mandated. Generally, the selection of a party candidate for presidential elections is not directly done by Democratic or Republican voters. First, voters elect delegates who constitute their respective party's national convention. Then, it is during the latter that elected delegates select a presidential candidate.
Before 1972, the philosophy behind selecting a party candidate was a partisan process. Few states held primary elections, and the results were not binding for delegates, who were considered trustees charged with selecting the best candidate. Party leaders and the party convention played a significant role in choosing their candidate. After 1972, a different approach was adopted, aiming for a more representative and fair process. Primary elections or caucuses began to be held in all states, and most state delegates became "committed" (in Republican terminology) or "pledged" (in Democratic terminology) to support a specific candidate based on voter preferences. There are a few uncommitted delegates (referred to as superdelegates by the Democratic Party) who can vote as they please and constitute a group that can play a decisive role, especially in the event of a close race between candidates.
With these changes in primary elections, party conventions no longer hold the same significance they once did. The outcome is often known months in advance, making them more of a celebratory event to support the party's candidate, with less media coverage than in the past. However, these conventions still determine and shape the procedures to be followed in case of a crisis, potentially playing a crucial role in the event of a candidate's withdrawal from the party.
As mentioned earlier, most delegates are committed to supporting a specific candidate at the party convention based on voter preferences. If this person is no longer a candidate, the rules change. However, these delegates generally are free to make their own choices, making the selection process more similar to the pre-1972 era. This convention may be characterized by conflicts and chaos, as seen in historical precedents such as the 1924 Democratic Party convention, which took 103 voting rounds to nominate John W. Davis for president. Additionally, the last presidential-nominating convention that failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot occurred as far back as 1952. But today, it is difficult to imagine who could play the role of a power broker.
In this open convention, each potential candidate will conduct a campaign aimed at selecting delegates who can vote in their favor. It is worth noting that the number of delegates for each candidate is determined in the primaries, but the selection of delegates themselves varies from state to state. While some are directly elected in the primaries, most are chosen afterward, often through state-level or congressional district-level party conventions or by party committees.
If withdrawal or dropout occurs before all primaries are concluded in June, states holding their primaries late in the calendar will suddenly become focal points of attention. They will need to change their filing deadlines so that latecomers can appear on the ballot.
The real dilemma arises with regards to who could replace Biden or Trump in the absence of a strong competitor. The withdrawal of either one of these two candidates would create a problematic vacuum. For the Democratic Party, it is likely that Vice President Kamala Harris would declare her candidacy. Other potential runners in the party include Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, or JB Pritzker, governor of Illinois. As for the Republican Party, it is unclear whether Nikki Haley could fill such a void in the event of her return to the race after she pulled out following her defeat on Super Tuesday on March 5, 2024. Other potential candidates could include Governor of Florida Ronald Dion DeSantis, who dropped out of the presidential race. Each party has different rules for accepting new candidates ahead of the national convention.
2. After the party convention is held and up until the election day:
In this scenario, the task of choosing an alternative falls to the National Committee of the party, which varies in the selection criteria and number of members between the Republican and Democratic parties. This scenario would lead to conflicts among different factions and currents within the party, as happened once in 1972 when the Democratic candidate for vice president withdrew after the party convention.
3. After the general election and before the convening of the Electoral College:
The U.S. president is not elected directly by the people but by a small body composing an electoral college. In the event of the death or withdrawal of the elected president before the meeting of the Electoral College, the matter falls into the hands of the Electoral College. If neither candidate receives a majority of the votes in this context, the election becomes the responsibility of the House of Representatives, which then holds what is known as "contingent elections." There is, however, no prior instance where this situation took place.
4. After the convening of the Electoral College and before the inauguration of the president-elect:
Under the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution, the vice president-elect assumes the presidency, then nominates a vice president, who is approved by a majority vote of both houses of Congress.
The Chances of Independent Candidates
The question of independent candidates (third-party candidates or independent candidates) arises in the event of voter dissatisfaction with the "rematch" between Biden and Trump and their desire for a third way. Several independents have announced their candidacy, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent after initially competing with Biden for the Democratic Party's nomination.
No independent candidate has ever won a modern presidential election since George Washington. Reasons for this include the majority-based electoral system, where the candidate with the most votes (even if not a majority) wins the election, reinforcing the two-party system. Additionally, some see funding as the most significant barrier, especially given the huge amounts of funds needed for election campaigns.
It is unlikely that an independent candidate will win the U.S. presidency. The goal of running, however, is not victory but rather pushing toward changing the political discourse and pushing critical issues onto the policy agenda. An independent candidate could influence the course of the election, especially if the race is close between the Democratic and Republican candidates, and there are several historical precedents for this. Therefore, there is a belief that Kennedy's candidacy as an independent may discount Biden's electoral advantage in favor of Trump in the 2024 elections.
Absence of Alternatives
The puzzling question remains: why hasn't the US political system produced alternatives to spare voters the choice between what some describe as "the lesser of two evils"? Some attribute this to a holistic approach, as today's world struggles with a gap between power and competence. Furthermore, the United States faces a leadership crisis at both governmental and corporate levels, according to one opinion poll.
Others attribute the issue to the structure of the party system and the need for its reconfiguration. A third view looks at the dynamics within the Republican and Democratic parties and their internal divisions. Within the Democratic Party, no candidate is capable of uniting moderates and progressives. Additionally, there are partisan pressures caused by the absence of Democratic competitors to Biden for fear of weakening his chances. As for the Republican Party, some attribute the issue to the fact that the political elite has lost touch with white, working-class voters as they’ve faced economic hardships over the past decade. This has paved the way for Trump's rise.
