On September 30, 2022, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed the final papers to annex four regions of Ukraine. The Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are "accepted into the Russian Federation" the documents say. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in retaliation, announced a surprise application to NATO, and ruled out any opportunity for negotiations with President Putin so long he remains in power.
Ukraine Retaliates
There are three aspects of Ukraine’s response to the annexation of its territories by Russia that could be summarised as follows:
1. Formality application to NATO:
President Zelenskyy, aiming to spoil President Putin’s celebrations back home, announced a surprise application to NATO. President Zelenskyy clearly had not aligned with Washington, as the announcement was surprising to US President Joe Biden’s administration. US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said Ukraine’s application was untimely, stressing that the best way to support Ukraine was by providing arms and expertise.
Washington is avoiding the slide into a ‘Third World War’ with Russia, which may lead to a catastrophic nuclear war. Were Ukraine to join the NATO, state members would have to get involved in a direct war with Russia; therefore, Ukraine’s chances to joining the NATO are slim.
2. Ongoing NATO support to Ukraine:
President Zelenskyy has been unsatisfied with the West’s level of support. Major NATO members, particularly Germany and France, have been reluctant to provide support beyond light equipment. By applying to the NATO, President Zelenskyy is aiming to put more pressure on Europe’s great powers to increase their support. In the US, however, Congress approved USD 12.3 billion aid package for Ukraine. And Washington has vowed to push Europe for more aid. Ukraine’s NATO application would give more reasons to Europe to increase their support.
3. Ukraine’s strategic wins:
A few days after the annexation, Ukrainian troops managed to make an important gain by recapturing the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman. The important gain has come in culmination of months of Ukrainian efforts to control the city, where Russian forces used the city to launch their attack for control on Donetsk. Now that Ukrainian forces have recaptured Lyman, they would proceed to increase their operations east to recapture Luhansk.
By recapturing those regions, Ukraine is directly challenging Russia. And threats by President Putin to use nuclear weapons do not seem to hinder Ukrainian willingness to fight, which looks somewhat embarrassing for Moscow who has lost key grounds since the beginning of the war.
Western Escalation
The US and EU have announced a series of sanctions in response to Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian regions, outlined in the following:
1. Washington mobilising international community against Moscow:
The US proposed a draft resolution condemning annexation of Ukrainian regions. The resolution called on member states not to recognise any altered status of Ukraine and also obligated Russia to withdraw its troops. US Envoy to the UN Security Council, Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that “Russia’s sham referenda, if accepted, will open a pandora’s box that we cannot close”. Russia vetoed what would have been a legally binding Security Council resolution, but the US has vowed to take the resolution to the UN General Assembly where there are no vetoes, but resolutions are not legally binding.
Notably, only four states refrained from voting, namely China, India, Brazil, and Gabon. Although Washington had hoped for China and India to join the camp against the war, it would be unlikely for the two countries to risk their trade and military partnerships with Russia.
2. Intensifying economic sanctions:
Washington has imposed a new set of sanctions against, and the EU is following suit having agreed on an eighth package. Although the new measures exclude energy and agrifood exports from Russia to third countries. The measures also focus on Russian officials and their families, and so the impact of these measures on weakening Russia are being questioned by experts, who are argue that the increase of Russian Rubel’s value against the Euro and the US Dollar is a clear indication of the ineffectiveness of Western economic measures. On September 30, the US Dollar dropped below 56 Rebels for the first time since July this year.
3. Increasing military support for Ukraine:
A key measure for Europe and then US against Russia’s annexation. Yet, the European support in particular has been limited in scope. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains reluctant on sending battle tanks to Ukraine despite increasing pressure by the US and German political parties alike. Chancellor Scholz has maintained a cautious stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine. Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht reiterated that line, saying that no other country was providing Western-built tanks to the Ukrainian army “and we have reached an understanding with our partners that Germany won’t do it alone”. By not sending battle tanks, Bloomberg magazine has reported, the West might be avoiding a military escalation against Russia.
Yet the West may look at supporting Ukraine with air defence systems. During her visit to Odesa, Minister Lambrecht said the first unit of the promised Iris-T SLM ground-based air-defence system would be delivered in the coming days. The system, developed in Germany, consists of four vehicles–a fire-control unit and three rocket launchers–designed to protect against attacks from the air. This shipment comes at a critical timing as Ukraine has suffered from a series of attacks by Russian drones in recent months.
4. Conflicting views about sabotaging Nord Stream:
While the West has accused Russia over the attacks, Moscow has hinted at the US, saying to has both the capability and the motive to carry such operation.
The Russian viewpoint claimed that there are multiple incidents support the argument that the West attacked The Nord Stream as per the following.
A recent report released by the FBI has revealed that Russian Federal Security Service were able to prevent a Ukrainian plot to attack on gas pipeline from Turkey to Europe in September. The report came days before bombings of Nord Steam 1 and 2 undersea pipelines, connecting Russia with German through the Baltic Sea.
Russia also claims that the failed attack attempt on the Turkey-Europe pipeline as another link between Ukraine and the Nord Stream bombings. President Putin, more clearly, said ‘Anglo-Saxon’ powers blew up Nord Stream pipelines, referring to the US and Britain.
As per the Russian viewpoint, the West may then consider targeting Russian energy infrastructure, although it remains extremely costly. Accordingly, Russia could retaliate by attacking European energy infrastructure, exacerbating the energy-crisis in the EU. Ahead of winter, Europe would want to avoid worsening the energy crisis. The scenario of sabotaging Russian infrastructure is highly unlikely due to the unbearable cost this may have on Europe.
Moscow’s Threats
President Putin, before deciding to annex the Ukrainian regions, repeatedly cautioned the West that any attack on Russia could provoke a nuclear response. President Putin had said the Kremlin would be mobilising 300 thousand military reservists to serve in Ukraine. It shows that Russia is not going to slow down. Two key scenarios could be predicted from here:
1. Russia threatens nuclear war:
Putin and his officials have repeatedly threatened to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal to defend Russian territory. According to Russia’s military doctrines stated in 2014 and 2010, nuclear weapons could be used by Russia “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened”.
Having instated the annex regions as Russian territory, President Putin may have crossed the point of no return. President Putin, moreover, said the US had created a ‘precedent’ by using nuclear weapons against Japan at the end of World War Two. His speech, filled with hostility towards the West, was delivered from the Kremlin where President Putin said Russia would use “all the power and all the means” at its disposal to defend its new lands from attacks by the West or Ukraine.
US President Biden said Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons is the biggest such threat since the Cuban missile crisis. He has warned the world would face ‘Armageddon’. But there’s much limitation over how Washington could retaliate if President Putin uses tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine; at any rate, the US has rejected the prospects of a nuclear war.
2. Increasing Russian troops:
The Kremlin said it was mobilising 300,000 additional soldiers to serve in the Ukraine, increasing Russian troops there from 200,000 to 500,000. What follows on this announcement is the question whether Russia is aiming to take full control of the newly annexed territories or is planning to further push for a new battle front against Odesa and Kiev.
We may conclude that the latest development in the Ukrainian war indicate an aggressive escalation as the prospect for diplomatic resolution diminishes. Ukraine is vowing to retake annexed while Russia is threatening to use nuclear warheads amid US warning of disastrous consequences. The US-led West, however, is avoiding a direct war with Russia to prevent a Third World War. Yet economic sanctions are reaching their limits in terms of what they can actually achieve, raising serious doubts about their true impact in weakening Russia.
